Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Looks good and dirty. New Model 3 View attachment 927863

https://twitter.com/x/status/1646331664291835906

 

[Drax7]

Are you sure that you don't miss going to dealerships?

Epic fight breaks out between two salespeople at Toyota of Milpitas - Alt Car news

Watch what happens when two Alpha Male salespeople at Toyota of Milpitas work out their disagreement with their fists.

tiremeetsroad.com

Glenngarry Glen Ross, happens everyday at stealerships

 

[Singuy]

The only question I have about this leak photo is why there are so much bug spatter on it? This car was driven outside fully covered at all time but instead the car looks like it was driven on a FL hwy during lovebug season. The only fishy part I can't figure out. It could just turn out to be an aftermarket kit.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The only question I have about this leak photo is why there are so much bug spatter on it? This car was driven outside fully covered at all time but instead the car looks like it was driven on a FL hwy during lovebug season. The only fishy part I can't figure out. It could just turn out to be an aftermarket kit.

Tesla probably keeps some of these prototypes at places in remote areas. Just go east and then south of Fremont on the I5 and it's all farmland, plenty of bugs to hit, along the interstate. Plenty of rural roads right next to the Interstate to drive on without being covered and only come across local farmland traffic.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Are you sure that you don't miss going to dealerships?

Epic fight breaks out between two salespeople at Toyota of Milpitas - Alt Car news

Watch what happens when two Alpha Male salespeople at Toyota of Milpitas work out their disagreement with their fists.

tiremeetsroad.com

I’m hearing it was a fight which one of Toyota’s 2 failproof strategies were going to send Elon & Tesla to the poorhouse, and pure EV’a to their grave.

1. Their planned doubling of all 3 of their hydrogen fueling stations by 2055.

2. Their cat on the keyboard naming conventions for ie their upcoming model called BZ4X#%85);@:!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Probably too early to really know for sure but Berlin-made deliveries are happening much sooner in Norway in the 1st month of the quarter. Would really love to finally see the end of the wave trend. This also goes with the Shanghai shipping info in that are big changes so far this quarter in terms of the routes of the ships and the number of ships.

 

[AmpManMYP]

World population is 8B people. Number of humans on Twitter is 250M (excluding bots and such). That’s like 3% of the world. Even if we want to be generous and say there are 400M people on Twitter, that’s still just 5% of the world. Twitter is an extremely niche social network…it’s not like Facebook or Instagram which have multi billion users that comprehend almost a 3rd of the world.

$44 Billion seems an awful lot for a personal PR outlet, when a small, focused Tesla PR team, and strategic use of some existing media outlets could cover Tesla's needs.

 

[JRP3]

The only question I have about this leak photo is why there are so much bug spatter on it? This car was driven outside fully covered at all time but instead the car looks like it was driven on a FL hwy during lovebug season. The only fishy part I can't figure out. It could just turn out to be an aftermarket kit.

A night time drive on a rural road could explain it. How many people would notice the difference on a black car at night, staring into the headlights?

 

[thx1139]

So is there a list of EVs that will still be eligible for the $7500 tax credit post April 18th? Not just Tesla. Also which will get $3750.

 

[AndrewZ]

So is there a list of EVs that will still be eligible for the $7500 tax credit post April 18th? Not just Tesla. Also which will get $3750.

This will be updated on the 17th and will show exactly what qualifies for what

Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After

Save up to $7,500 on qualifying vehicles!

fueleconomy.gov

 

[GOVA]

$44 Billion seems an awful lot for a personal PR outlet, when a small, focused Tesla PR team, and strategic use of some existing media outlets could cover Tesla's needs.

Relative it seems.

For some it is a fortune indeed, for others is irrelevant. As Elon says, it is a number in a database. Did not see Elon judging you about your purchases.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla's Energy business is clearly designed only to deflect critcism of Tesla's Auto business (by doubling Tesla's net profits over the next 2 years). /s

Tesla Could Double Net Income! | Farzad Mesbahi

 

[FreqFlyer]

The only question I have about this leak photo is why there are so much bug spatter on it? This car was driven outside fully covered at all time but instead the car looks like it was driven on a FL hwy during lovebug season. The only fishy part I can't figure out. It could just turn out to be an aftermarket kit.

If it drove past you at night would you notice?.................. Didn't think so...............What is flying around at night?...............Common practice for automakers to test prototypes at night when most are sleeping.

 

[Ogre]

less than 25% of US population is on twitter. The number is even smaller internationally (and 0% in China).

CONTEXT.

Someone asked literally “should Tesla get a discount on Twitter advertising”

That was my reply. CONTEXT MATTERS. Don’t try and extract thing I didn’t say by ignoring the context it was said in.

 

[khill]

We are talking about Revenue, Gross Margin and EPS estimates here…these are done using the official P & D numbers from Tesla. For EPS estimates, Troy was within 1 cent of the actual Tesla Q4 EPS. Most were too optimistic and got it wrong by a wide margin. He is at .80 for Q1. Let’s see how close he is for Q1 - we will know on 4/19.

 

[khill]

Keep in mind that often Tesla only needs to post to one social media platform,, others will link to that post on other social media platforms, journalists analysts will write about it, etc.

Very little preparation and planning is needed, often the post is a single photo or a short video with a few words.

What matters in the end is what percentage of potential Tesla buyers see the information somewhere.

In terms of eventual reach per $ spent on marketing, this seems like a good ROI to me.

There is an art to making the right post, and Tesla is fairly good at doing that.

Is that why we see a price cut every other week and gross margins go from 30% to 20% or even less than that? If Tesla could just spend $200M per year on advertising, and inform people who actually buy cars instead of read Twitter, they wouldn’t have to do this many price cuts and sacrifice this much margin. How are BMW, etc. are still able to sell more than 2M cars per year when Tesla has such superior products? Lack of awareness of Tesla superiority is real amongst people actually buy cars priced above 50K.

 

[mongo]

Is that why we see a price cut every other week and gross margins go from 30% to 20% or even less than that? If Tesla could just spend $200M per year on advertising, and inform people who actually buy cars instead of read Twitter, they wouldn’t have to do this many price cuts and sacrifice this much margin. How are BMW, etc. are still able to sell more than 2M cars per year when Tesla has such superior products? Lack of awareness of Tesla superiority is real amongst people actually buy cars priced above 50K.

We have not seen gross margin go to 20% or below that.
Nor have we seen GM get to the 14% level of Ford, General Motors, and Toyota who spend billions on advertising...

Tesla does not make enough cars to replace all existing OEMs. Until/ unless that occurs, others will still sell cars regardless of how great Teslas are or how much advertising they do.

 

[AndrewZ]

Example of the complexity in calculating revenue for any given quarter, you have deliveries like this 2019 order potentially being realized

https://twitter.com/x/status/1646503950034534400

How significant those are, who even knows. When were all the Portugal orders placed, backlogged from years past or current prices?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Example of the complexity in calculating revenue for any given quarter, you have deliveries like this 2019 order potentially being realized

https://twitter.com/x/status/1646503950034534400

How significant those are, who even knows. When were all the Portugal orders placed, backlogged from years past or current prices?

To add onto the many factors affecting this quarter, you also have the currency tailwinds in Q1.

DXY — U.S. Dollar Index Chart — TradingView

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www.tradingview.com

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong because I don't have the transcript of the Q4 earnings call in front of me but I believe Zach called out something like currency headwinds for Q4 earnings were 340 million.

Not only was the dollar down significantly in Q1 compared to Q4, but the average across the quarter was actually lower than the average in Q3 of 2022 and even in the ballpark of the average of Q2 2022.

Currency tailwinds could add to a material beat for Q1.

 

[khill]

We have not seen gross margin go to 20% or below that.
Nor have we seen GM get to the 14% level of Ford, General Motors, and Toyota who spend billions on advertising...

Tesla does not make enough cars to replace all existing OEMs. Until/ unless that occurs, others will still sell cars regardless of how great Teslas are or how much advertising they do.

Q4’22 Auto GM excl reg credits was 24.3% (Q1’22 this was 30%) and consensus was 26%. We will know where this number lands for Q1’23 on 4/19. Let’s see. WS Consensus expectation is 21%.