Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Anyone else suspect the question on advertising was a plant? I realize Elon is on record saying that "nothing is scripted." (Define scripted, especially if it's not written down.) Maybe they knew it would come up from all the chatter. I believe these are more likely than doing it on a whim and then "not realizing the level of interest" - I don't buy that either, not completely.

Wouldn't advertising have been considered months ago for the January lull (right next to dropping prices)? Except, ads look bad to investors as the remedy to low demand which would be the assumption if it just showed up out of the blue. But make it sound like our idea and it's harmless... right after raising prices slightly as if proof that demand had returned.

If that was the plan, well done Tesla! We can now safely include ads at will, and without causing alarm on demand. It's another lever they didn't have just yesterday.

 

[TesLeif]

I don’t think an investor’s “experience” would necessarily him or her to a leveraged “investment” like this.

To be fair, you said “trader”, so it might appeal to a trader rather than an investor. But regardless of experience level, I don’t think leveraging like this improves one’s odds of long term gains over just buying and holding the damn stock.

Also, these types of products tend to charge a fee/percent of your position, so they are likely not ideal for long-term holdings (if things move sideways for a long time, you slowly lose money). Better for short trades (gambling!).

 

[Hiline]

Is this just a snapshot in time or part of a bigger picture such as clearing out inventory?

There’s more information on this in the inventory discussion. Inventory seems to be a censored topic in this thread like advertising used to be.

—

Mod: no, it’s not.

 

[JRP3]

Motor Trend is not Edmunds. MT is in general more balanced than the rest of the ICE head magazines.

And in this case I don't think they are too far off. CT will start at a much higher price than $39K and in the next few years we may see one with that price. $75K price this for year CT seems in the ball park. I can guarantee that.

Plus Elon just said Cybertruck is difficult to build, and that doesn't mean "cheap".

 

[JRP3]

Anyone else suspect the question on advertising was a plant?

Not anyone paying attention. Remember when Elon said "don't try to read between the lines, just read the lines"? He was shocked at the enthusiasm for advertising.

 

[jim0266]

Anyone else suspect the question on advertising was a plant? I realize Elon is on record saying that "nothing is scripted." (Define scripted, especially if it's not written down.) Maybe they knew it would come up from all the chatter. I believe these are more likely than doing it on a whim and then "not realizing the level of interest" - I don't buy that either, not completely.

Wouldn't advertising have been considered months ago for the January lull (right next to dropping prices)? Except, ads look bad to investors as the remedy to low demand which would be the assumption if it just showed up out of the blue. But make it sound like our idea and it's harmless... right after raising prices slightly as if proof that demand had returned.

If that was the plan, well done Tesla! We can now safely include ads at will, and without causing alarm on demand. It's another lever they didn't have just yesterday.

Not sure I would have chosen MeetKevin as my plant.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Plus Elon just said Cybertruck is difficult to build, and that doesn't mean "cheap".

I thought they designed the Cybertruck from the ground up to be easy to manufacture? I wonder if that path got too expensive and they needed to pivot a bit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

New 52 Week High Today

Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ:NASDAQ​

RT Quote | Last NASDAQ LS, VOL From CTA | USD

Close 337.27 +6.15 (+1.86%)
Volume 1,958,384

I don't know, but sounds like maybe WallE is still expecting a FED pause and lower rates sooner. Who will blink?

Cheers!

 

[GhostSkater]

Side note, friend of a friend works on battery production at Tesla and said things are not going well as it relates to cell production for Cybertruck. Not trying to be a bear but am just sharing what I’ve been told. 3-4 months ago he said they had about 200 packs made for Cybertruck and how they were severely behind schedule. I expect the ramp to be quite slow with this news. Hopefully with Elon back at Tesla, he and Tom Zhu can figure some *sugar* out.

https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/13km4wk/_/jklbmyv

I find this awesome that they are already building CT packs, 3 4 months ago is an eternity behind for Tesla, at that time they were barely at the beginning at the ramp at Texas 4680 no?

200 packs is around 367200 cells or 36 MWh, tiny, end of Q1 they were close to 5 GWh per year with Kato and Texas combined

This leads to some questions, is the 4680 ramp at Texas that slow so far? Or they are building Model Ys with Texas made 4680s V2? The theory so far is that Kato makes 4680 V1 and Texas 4680 V2, as shown on Investors Day, and Model Y only uses 4680 V1 from Kato

Or the limitation is indeed putting cells in Cybertruck packs and they have a lot of 4680s V2 in stock?

If we knew the amount of 4680 Model Ys sold we could try to figure out, but don't think that data exists in public, since it would allow us to figure out if there is more 4680s Model Y on the road than Kato can support

Shame they didn't talk about how that is going

 

[JRP3]

I thought they designed the Cybertruck from the ground up to be easy to manufacture? I wonder if that path got too expensive and they needed to pivot a bit.

"easy" is relative, it's a new way to build a vehicle and using different materials for which they had to design and produce equipment to make. It's always harder than Elon imagines at first, for every vehicle they've introduced, (maybe except for the Y).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Brian interviews a rep for a Shell Oil subsidiary about their plans to provide charging stations on lampposts.

This is not an original idea to Shell. The City of London, England has had this type of on-the-street charge-while-parking for EVs for 2+ yrs now:

1,300 street lights converted to EV chargers in London | Fleet Europe (March 24, 2020)

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

But, that probably isn't accurate. I'm pretty sure that the Lithium 16v low voltage battery contains cobalt. (As far as I know it isn't LFP.)

Yup. NMC:



h/t @Ingineer

 

[Ogre]

Anyone else suspect the question on advertising was a plant? I realize Elon is on record saying that "nothing is scripted." (Define scripted, especially if it's not written down.) Maybe they knew it would come up from all the chatter. I believe these are more likely than doing it on a whim and then "not realizing the level of interest" - I don't buy that either, not completely.

Wouldn't advertising have been considered months ago for the January lull (right next to dropping prices)? Except, ads look bad to investors as the remedy to low demand which would be the assumption if it just showed up out of the blue. But make it sound like our idea and it's harmless... right after raising prices slightly as if proof that demand had returned.

If that was the plan, well done Tesla! We can now safely include ads at will, and without causing alarm on demand. It's another lever they didn't have just yesterday.

Tesla management has a good idea what questions are going to be asked. It’s been a hot topic in the community for some time. So they didn’t need to have a plant in the audience.

Musk did a decent job pretending it was a spur of the moment decision though.

 

[larmor]

There’s more information on this in the inventory discussion. Inventory seems to be a censored topic in this thread like advertising used to be.

—

Mod: no, it’s not.

Or maybe they should advertise cars available in inventory...

 

[MountainRatMat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/TSLALounge/comments/13km4wk/_/jklbmyv

I find this awesome that they are already building CT packs, 3 4 months ago is an eternity behind for Tesla, at that time they were barely at the beginning at the ramp at Texas 4680 no?

200 packs is around 367200 cells or 36 MWh, tiny, end of Q1 they were close to 5 GWh per year with Kato and Texas combined

This leads to some questions, is the 4680 ramp at Texas that slow so far? Or they are building Model Ys with Texas made 4680s V2? The theory so far is that Kato makes 4680 V1 and Texas 4680 V2, as shown on Investors Day, and Model Y only uses 4680 V1 from Kato

Or the limitation is indeed putting cells in Cybertruck packs and they have a lot of 4680s V2 in stock?

If we knew the amount of 4680 Model Ys sold we could try to figure out, but don't think that data exists in public, since it would allow us to figure out if there is more 4680s Model Y on the road than Kato can support

Shame they didn't talk about how that is going

This will result in some good questions from say.com for the Q2 earnings call.

Something to the effect of:
How is 4680 (Cybertruck) cell and pack construction going?
Internet sleuths have deduced that the energy density of the 4680 is lower than expected, can you explain why?
Is the 4680 actually cheaper to produce per unit of energy and if not when do you expect it to get there?

 

[MC3OZ]

No, what is missing from the debate is a crazy California Jury award setting precedent. FSD legislation with some TORT reform thrown would make "Robotaxis" a reality and a safer place.

The US needs to consider if everyone is happy working for the enrichment of lawyers, FSD might need legislation / law reform at least in some US states.
In most parts of the world this shouldn't be a problem provided there is sufficient evidence of FSD being safer than a human and any damages payouts consider the actual damage or health impact..

 

[Artful Dodger]

I could have at least a reason why I'm blocked?

Are you also on the TSLAQ block list? Maybe she subscribes...

 

[madodel]

There it is. It's official. Drew doesn't like it either...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1659083109252358145

Either charge by mile driven as with the gasoline tax or charge everyone the same annual tax and drop the gas tax. But this is a deliberate assault on EVs to negate the incentives pandering to the auto mafia.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The US needs to consider if everyone is happy working for the enrichment of lawyers, FSD might need legislation / law reform at least in some US states.
In most parts of the world this shouldn't be a problem provided there is sufficient evidence of FSD being safer than a human and any damages payouts consider the actual damage or health impact..

Eventually, the insurance industry, led by Tesla Insurance, will have much influence. Rates will be based on % time on FSD vs manual.

 

[lascavarian]

Anyone else suspect the question on advertising was a plant?

Not a plant really. But I posted in this forum about the CNBC one hour interview as soon as this interview became public. That was the message that advertising has begun IMO.

It started with that interview announcement. It was pumped all day on CNBC. The clips have been heavily used. That was a very big change.

Tesla has been a kind of lifestyle company in recent years. Now it becomes a product company with a little product advertising directly aimed at product sell through.

Elon has a close relationship with the management of Endeavor. He just hired away Linda Y.

The advertising era has already begun as I see it. The question was a bit after the fact but presented an opening.