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There it is. It's official. Drew doesn't like it either...


EV owners already pay tax on electricity. Gas tax is based on usage. This EV tax is one size fits all. It should be apportioned based on mileage or electicity use. The ultimate solution would be to eliminate taxes that are for road use, and maintain roads through general taxes.
 
I’ve found that typical of forums where the information is new to me. I’ll read it voraciously, then begin interacting all the while absorbing a ton knowledge. At some point, I crest my own personal S-curve and move on.

I’ve been through that with luxury watches, digital photography, and vintage bicycles. Tesla, TSLA and you guys have held my interest longer.
Agreed, and my favorite news in this forum is when I find out @Ogre Is eating crayons again... maybe that is why he has Sixpack abs?
 
Shouldn't Waymo be getting "good" at the Phoenix area by now?

They are, but only on local roads.

Waymo recently surpassed 1 million miles on public roads without a human monitor present in the vehicle, and in that 1 million miles had a total of only 2 crashes, 18 minor contact events, and 0 injuries.


Seems like they should be showing mastery of **something**, either expanding to a lot more places, or just getting really good at the places where it has been around for 5+ years.

Waymos first open to all robotaxi service (no human supervising) began in a suburb of Phoenix in November 2019. They expanded the area they service to the larger phoenix metro (but still no highways) since then-- and in Dec 2022 got a permit for driveless robotaxi service in San Francisco (all of CA really but SF to start) and and have since expanded the service area there too. They've announced LA and Bellevue Washington as their next cities and are in testing there now.

Again they're not remotely profitable, they are not at any sort of "works everywhere" system, but to suggest there's been no progress in 5 years simply ain't so.

TONS more threads discussing the two over here of course:




(let's not point out that tax revenue is fungible and only 26% of road spending is covered by fuel taxes)

To be fair the other way- a good chunk of the rest of the funding is from federal highway funds.

Those funds come from...federal gas taxes. Which aren't collected at all on EVs, and there's no substitute in the way of an EV registration fee.

As was pointed out earlier, if you count the total fuel tax of BOTH kinds you avoid with an EV then the Texas registration for EVs is still cheaper than what the average Texan in the average ICE vehicle would be paying in fuel tax.


EV owners already pay tax on electricity. Gas tax is based on usage. This EV tax is one size fits all. It should be apportioned based on mileage or electicity use.

We've already been over the challenges for doing it via mileage (most states don't have annual inspections where this info would be available to the taxing authority)

I agree funding roads from the general fund is probably the best course- things are far far more interdependent these days to the point trying to more heavily apportion road costs just to direct road users probably doesn't make sense anymore. Even when you're not driving on the road you're using a ton of goods and services that use them.




Someone who uses the service, feel free to correct me here... Doesn't Blue Cruise do a lot less than basic Autopilot? Like very limited geofenced area of operation?

It doesn't do less--- basic AP is just TACC and autosteer in a single lane.

Also, technically, basic AP is only intended for the same types of roads--- controlled access divided highways- per the owners manual.

The difference is Ford enforces this limit to specific enabled roads- Tesla leaves it up to the driver to turn it on in unsupported areas or not.

Other difference is Ford allows hands-off in some circumstances, Tesla does not yet do so (though IIRC Green found some beefed up interior camera code suggesting they might move more to that in the future)



Does this ans your question? From the article, "later this year". So it doesn't have this yet.

View attachment 938873

Check it out, someone on the Ford forum uses Tesla FSD as the benchmark.

"I don’t use it nearly often enough to justify $75/month…,” wrote one user. “Short of something that more closely approximates Tesla’s FSD, I would not consider paying that price. Not even close,” wrote another."


Basic AP doesn't do any of that stuff either though. EAP or FSD do- which both cost extra (more than blues clues does per year). They also do a lot MORE of course... this is why comparing the offerings isn't quite apples to apples.
 
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Someone who uses the service, feel free to correct me here... Doesn't Blue Cruise do a lot less than basic Autopilot? Like very limited geofenced area of operation?
Does this ans your question? From the article, "later this year". So it doesn't have this yet.

1684427703890.png


Check it out, someone on the Ford forum uses Tesla FSD as the benchmark.

"I don’t use it nearly often enough to justify $75/month…,” wrote one user. “Short of something that more closely approximates Tesla’s FSD, I would not consider paying that price. Not even close,” wrote another."
 
As far as “Tesla stock may explode very soon!!!”…

Skeptics see “may“ as a “weasel word”. So, whenever you see it, mentally add “or may not” to the prediction.

So, yes, it may explode - and I hope it does. But then again, it may not!
You are absolutely right. They all seem to use "CLICK BAIT" now. But he does give a pretty measured and generally accurate assessment, explaining his logic and apologizing for his missteps.

Hey, if you have thick skin and are ready for the true explosion, Try TSLL, a TSLA multiplier that increases at 1.5X that of TSLA. It is not for the faint of heart especially in this vacillating market, because it ALSO falls at 1.5X. WARNING: It is for the more experienced trader and don't let it sit unattended. I threw a little in this morning and didn't catch it before the downturn and lost a few bucks, but since the afternoon upturn I have bought some back. Playtime.
 
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Reactions: Skryll
In a sad irony, the upstanding, queue respecting Scandinavian @KarenRei was denied opportunity to ask a question because of rude American line cutters.

Because of you mentioning this, I found out that I'm blocked on Twitter by her 😐. But I honestly can't tell what a possible reason for that could be. I've sent a DM to her account on TMC here , Twitter isn't allowing me to send her a DM. Anyone here able to bring this to her attention so I could have at least a reason why I'm blocked? Learned a lot from her past years, so I'm feeling bummed to see this happening.
Thanks mod for leaving this here.
No need for others to reply on this matter further on the thread. DM's are open if anyone could further clarify why this happened. thx
 
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Shouldn't Waymo be getting "good" at the Phoenix area by now? Seems like they should be showing mastery of **something**, either expanding to a lot more places, or just getting really good at the places where it has been around for 5+ years.

FSD is in its own perpetual "requires a driver" jail, but at least it's gotten a lot better within those constraints.

They're getting pretty good at blocking traffic.
 
But, that probably isn't accurate. I'm pretty sure that the Lithium 16v low voltage battery contains cobalt. (As far as I know it isn't LFP.)
Fair enough.

How about a dozen iPhones on the left and a standard range TMY on the right, then ask the same question about which contains more cobalt.

A: “They all contain the same amount” or some such reply.

The powers that be that want to stop the sustainable energy transition seem to use cobalt (amongst other things) as a dog whistle and I want Tesla to turn it upside down.

The concern for child labour (or any conditions of children in any extractive zone) seems to only become an issue with EV battery raw materials.

An oblique view: Nigeria suffers an “Exxon Valdez” oil spill amount every year and there are vast areas of that country that are polluted beyond belief yet children are living there. Why is that never brought up?

Or the cobalt that is used as a catalyst for the creation of low sulphur diesel…

Edit: clarity on using a “standard range” Tesla 3/Y for these comparisons.
 
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They are, but only on local roads.

Waymo recently surpassed 1 million miles on public roads without a human monitor present in the vehicle, and in that 1 million miles had a total of only 2 crashes, 18 minor contact events, and 0 injuries.
Do you consider those stats to be "good"? I sure don't. I live in the Phoenix metro area and will not get in a Waymo.

We all know how bad the press would be if FSD had stats that bad.

20 contact events in 1 million miles of low speed surface street driving. Do you know someone that has an accident every 50,000 miles? Would you get in a car they are driving?
 
Whenever Toyota claims there "aren't enough resources" for BEV's to be the only option, what they REALLY mean is there aren't enough resources for Toyota, mainly because they've been so slow to adopt BEV's and plan / setup their supply chains.

If they stick to this "plan" they will be one of the legacy automakers which fade away into obscurity by the disruption.

Toyota's logic is so terrible, and their own actions disprove their "reasoning."

All you need to ask is: what percentage of Toyota's actual production is hybrid at all? And, after all these years of producing hybrids, why isn't it 100% of their lineup?


Yesterday, Jalopnik posted an article ("This Is Why Toyota Isn't Rushing to Sell You an Electric Vehicle"), where they got a whitepaper document that Toyota sent to their dealers. The crux of it was Toyota's idea of a "1:6:90" rule -- for the same battery minerals, you can build 1 EV, 6 Plug-in Hybrids, or 90 regular Hybrids....and those 90 regular hybrids would prevent 37x more carbon dioxide release than a single EV.

It's pretty clear that their magic rule just used a crude kWh ratio, so just ignore that hybrids and EVs use different battery chemistries and therefore different minerals. Also ignore all the LFP batteries going into EVs now since they don't even need special ingredients. And ignore the existince of the various ways to use renewable power to power an EV.

Ignore all those facts that might be difficult to understand....just start with the real, present-day world:
Tesla, alone, is already producing EV's at a rate of 1.5-2 million per year.
Toyota's entire production is roughly 10 million vehicles per year, and only a fraction of that is hybrid in any way.
In 2021, Toyota sold 2.5 million hybrids. Not sure what that figure might be for 2022 or 2023, but probably not much different...

So -- where are those "90 hybrids per EV" Toyota wants to promote? The entire global vehicle market is something like 100 million per year -- why the heck hasn't every car been a hybrid for the last decade, if one company today can produce over 1.5 million full EV's per year? It is because every old-guard manufacturer wants to drag its feet and do as little as possible, Toyota included.

If any manufacturer would have made "100% hybrid" a goal/commitment, and streamlined their powertrains down to just hybrid options, it probably would have been cheaper overall. Why engineer and produce 2-3 unique combustion-only powertrains for every model, plus maybe a hybrid version, plus maybe a plug-in hybrid version? The only reason is "sticking to old ways" and "changing as little as possible." But it should be clear (and probably is to everybody reading here) that that boat has now passed.

Even if we assume that this year Toyota will double their 2021 hybrid production, and sell 5 million hybrids: by their math, that is the same carbon reduction as 2 million EV's. Congratulations! They can match Tesla with that half of their production volume, while the other half continues to pollute.

Even if Toyota actually decides to make all of their vehicles hybrid, at 10 million per year, that would be the same carbon savings as 4 million electric cars (again, by Toyota's own math).

How many years will it take for Tesla to be delivering 4 million EV's per year? I can pretty much guarantee that is going to happen faster than Toyota finally "electrifying" (hybrid, plug-in hybrid, EV) every car they sell.
 
Do you consider those stats to be "good"? I sure don't. I live in the Phoenix metro area and will not get in a Waymo.

We all know how bad the press would be if FSD had stats that bad.

20 contact events in 1 million miles of low speed surface street driving. Do you know someone that has an accident every 50,000 miles? Would you get in a car they are driving?
I'm not aware of comparable stats from FSD that have been made public, we have this


But it's specifically tracking more serious accidents that resulted in airbag deployment rather than minor contact events, which would presumably be a higher number.

With driverless operations like Waymo, all accidents are reported and tracked even if the driverless taxi played no real part in it. IE if a Waymo is sitting at a red light and someone in an adjacent lane just turns into them at low speed, that is tracked by the regulators as an accident involving the robotaxi -- you need to dig into the individual reports to see the actual cause.
 

"Elon Musk will lead the way in using generative AI in marketing, says Permira's Everson"

CNBC - this morning:

I see a quite big change in tone on every MSM happening pretty soon

Not because Tesla is advertising, but they said they will give it a try, and you can be sure they won't on those places who drag Tesla name in the mud, and the ones that dragged the most over all those years might be screwed already since Elon don't take kindly to lies being spread for years

MSM isn't dumb, it likes money, and deep down they know who will be the brand selling a ton of vehicles and having a bank vault fatter than Uncle Scrooge

The effect that just the mention that they will try it will make Tesla start to be painted positively in most places
 
Toyota's logic is so terrible, and their own actions disprove their "reasoning."
This isn't logic or reasoning, it's marketing. Toyota is trying to gloss over their failures by giving the media content to publish defending their abysmal track record with regards to EVs. The media is complicit because large sums of advertising dollars flow into their coffers.
So -- where are those "90 hybrids per EV" Toyota wants to promote? The entire global vehicle market is something like 100 million per year -- why the heck hasn't every car been a hybrid for the last decade, if one company today can produce over 1.5 million full EV's per year? It is because every old-guard manufacturer wants to drag its feet and do as little as possible, Toyota included.
This is exactly it right here. Even if not all vehicles for the last decade, at a minimum, every vehicle shipping today.

Great post!
 
Do you consider those stats to be "good"? I sure don't.

Which stats?

2 crashes in 1 million miles? That's basically identical to the average crash rate of a human driving a car (~1 per 500k miles driven)

0 injuries in 1 million miles? That's below the national average for human drivers (which is depending on the year roughly in the 0.75-1.25 injuries per 1 million miles driven range)

So I don't know that you'd say they're "good" so much as about as well as people drive.

Also keep in mind, these are ALL incidents, not just "incidents that were the fault of Waymo."

Once you actually look closer you find Waymo saying the 2 crashes were the Waymo vehicle being rear-ended by another distracted driver approaching a red light.

And the "contact" incidents? Here's Waymo describing those-

These involve incidents like a car backing out of a parking spot and colliding with a stationary Waymo vehicle or a portable plastic sign stand getting blown by the wind and making contact with one of the company’s driverless cars

So it appears the rate of "accidents or contacts caused by Waymo" in those 1 million driverless miles is 0 so far.




We all know how bad the press would be if FSD had stats that bad.

We know for a fact FSDb has hit stationary objects, which is seems from the data Waymo has not.

The overall accident rate is lower- Tesla reported a rate of 0.31 accidents per 1 million miles, versus 2 for Waymo.

But again, neither of the Waymo ones were the fault of the vehicle-- and Tesla does not break out blame in any detail for its own accidents- so with a sample size that small it's hard to draw any useful "better or worse" conclusions there other than the one case we have on video of an FSDB car hitting stationary poles and that's old at this point.


This'll be my last post here on this, if you want to discuss further- as I suggested- this would be a good place for it: