Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

Unpopular opinion here but I have thought this for years.

Model S and Model X are high end niche vehicles that have little impact on the company's bottom line. Their relevance to the company will continue to decline for the forseeable future. S and X may be thr flashy flagships, but Y and 3 are the financial workhorses doing all work pushing Tesla.

Just my $.02

Dan

It is a fact since 3 and Y started production.

Their relevance is always going to be high. Not financially due to volume. Most companies have a high level products in their lineup.

S/X started this thing. The refresh and Plaid versions were done on purpose. To have the fastest and most luxurious cars which are for 4-6 humans at a time.

Had those been discontinued, Lucid, Porsche, Rimac would be the only game in town in that segment.

"little impact" - no.

 

[Nocturnal]

Wouldn't a model 3 refresh be a great time to start testing out some of the unboxing processes? I'd love to see a plaid 3 or a 400 mile 3 but I'm in the camp that we might see a modest range boost but mostly it will be about cost. Range isn't what prevents people from buying a 3, it's cost.

 

[gillfoto]

WooHoo, House passes Debt Limit bill. Should be a good day tomorrow, especially if Elon shows his Highland! He should wear a kilt!

Only if it's the Highland 'Plaid' model.

 

[WarpedOne]

Wouldn't a model 3 refresh be a great time to start testing out some of the unboxing processes? I'd love to see a plaid 3 or a 400 mile 3 but I'm in the camp that we might see a modest range boost but mostly it will be about cost. Range isn't what prevents people from buying a 3, it's cost.

Agreed.
I bet MY production is already cheaper than M3 production (including the cost of factory space, production line length, etc).
They could lower the price of MY under the price of M3 but that would kill M3.
So it is pretty obvious what needs to be done: M3 must get rear+front castings and structural battery pack to enable even lower price, under $30k.

 

[unk45]

There are lots of questions about my note from a friend post. Here's a bit of perspective.

* My friend did not mention strike price or expiration date. I would guess that omission was intentional. I'm not going to ask.

* The note made it very clear that Blackrock wanted to buy the calls written by my friend. I find it somewhat strange that a deeply funded organization such as BlackRock would be asking wealthy individuals to write call options to them and since $10M worth of TSLA is really a drop in the bucket to such a company I also feel that many individuals were solicited simultaneously. Clearly, BR wouldn't be buying call options if they weren't expecting TSLA to run higher.

* Market makers are in a unique position to see the efforts being employed by themselves, other MMs, and hedge funds to keep a volatile stock such as TSLA from rising considerably higher. When those efforts are proving unsuccessful at keeping TSLA below a key resistance point such as 200, they get nervous.

* Part of the dilemma of market makers is that as TSLA moves higher, there's more call options purchased, which requires more delta-hedge buying by the market makers, which in turn pushes TSLA up even higher. It's hard to get ahead of the game when TSLA is heading higher because acquiring options or shares when you're that big just pushes TSLA higher.

* We have seen rallies of TSLA that take on a character of their own, where rising stock prices lead to massive call option buying, which in turn requires massive delta-hedge buying but it's really hard to keep fully hedged when the stock price is moving upward very quickly and new call option requests keep pouring in. That's a nightmare scenario for a market maker and a reason why MMs might want to be long TSLA, to be ahead of the game just in case another such rally gets going.

So, in a nutshell, a big organization which knows the inner workings of the market such as BlackRock wanting to increase their TSLA long position is itself bullish. For a market maker to be concerned enough to avoid the usual market channels to buy call options is unusual. I see nothing wildly bullish about the note in itself, but I do think the scenario is reasonably bullish and should be considered with all the other information out there when considering what is possible in the not-so-distant future.

In context, in case anybody does not know, Black Rock is the world's largest investment manager with ~ nine (9) trillion dollars under management. When they take a position, any position, that position is very significant.

The real question is what it means if a single shareholder is asked to write any kind of option at all by Black Rock (noting that the name is as relevant as saying JP MorganChase, since there are many, many moving parts that amy or may not be well coordinated.

Hence, I am slightly skeptical about the significance of such an action. No matter, whatever it may be it is positive for TSLA holders. Why? Some fo the very largest TSLA holders will not cooperate with any derivative activity, and they hold at least 25% of outstanding shares. hence, the remaining shares are even more susceptible to volatility. Caution, therefore, is warranted but signs are moving positive. OTOH, Remember, recession and politics always can easily derail optimism.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m sorry, did I miss something?

AAPL plunged during yesterday's Closing Cross, just as TSLA bounced. Speculation is money moved from A to T.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wouldn't a model 3 refresh be a great time to start testing out some of the unboxing processes? I'd love to see a plaid 3 or a 400 mile 3 but I'm in the camp that we might see a modest range boost but mostly it will be about cost. Range isn't what prevents people from buying a 3, it's cost.

"Unboxing" primarily means changing from a traditional linear assembly line to a "star" topology (one where all the components are assembled into modules separately, then come together just once as the final act).

Fremont's paint shop will not be well suited to "unboxing", it's setup for the old-style build process. What Fremont can do with "Project Highland" is adopt the 48v architecture (including automating installation of the wiring harness), F/R gigacastings + structural bty pack, and cosmetic updates to differentiate the "refreshed" Model 3 (that's what will show up in the mass media, not pictures of amazing Munro teardowns).

Better build quality, lower COGS, higher sales. Winning.

Cheers!

 

[Sunlight]

As a Tesla shareholder since 2014 and an avid follower of TMC and all things EV, I watch the current situation and the share price with a mixture of trepidation and curiosity. Of course our earlier investments are still in good shape and only a few later added(during the last drop) are under-water.

It feels to me as if Tesla has launched and cleared the tower(Model 3 ramp) and is now experiencing Max Q – a time of greatest stress before getting to orbit.

People who are here or who have done proper investigation of the fundamentals of Tesla know that it is solid and primed for big growth and success. My feeling is that Tesla is driven now solely by optimising profits to invest in new facilities and R & D to improve margins; efficiencies and so on. Everything is decided on this premise, however odd it may make some decisions appear (Service centres; superchargers; advertising; options; demand/pricing etc).This may have the effect of feeling cold-blooded and lacking in dreams and magic – so be it! Even if it reflects on the depressed share price......

In some ways this is a high-wire act as Tesla is growing hugely virtually based on two models in a few colours and versions! If these hadn't been so successful (or they suddenly fall out of favour),Tesla would be in a little bit of a pickle – which is, I suspect, why so many cautious investors seem to be staying away at present.

Then there is the issue of the Tesla shine which has dimmed a bit with FSD, Cybertruck, revised Model 3 and Y; 4680 battery production; service centres and superchargers and so on lagging a bit on expectations.

But as long as demand is good enough to support growth then all is well and Tesla has a huge number of demand levels to pull should the need become urgent. Including advertising/information supply; greater options in colours/trims/prices/models; upgraded interiors (incl HUD/drivers screen if deemed beneficial); higher profile signage at Superchargers and Service centres; more Service Centres (and Superchargers); additional models if the numbers stack up(hatchback/estate Model 3; boxy Model Y and so on); Cybertruck; Roadster (Halo car if required) and, of course, a cheaper Tesla Model2 (better and cheaper than the best value Model 3) etc etc...

I suspect each and everyone of these options has been assessed by Tesla against cost and need and demand. As so many posters note ,Tesla has mountains of data and little is left to chance.

As a Tesla investor/fan/supporter I also get frustrated by some of the directions Tesla seems to being taking but have faith that none(or very little) is arbitrary and ill-thought out....

Let's clear Max Q and get to orbit – may take a while yet (Cybertruck; big Semi ramp; Model 2 and revised/extended Model 3/Y range)

Last thought – I do find the emotional helter skelter here tiresome sometimes – like a bunch of manic depressives; unadulterated Bulls and determinated Bears.........There are, however, magnificent posters here who are always moderated and informative – useful information.

You know who you are!! Thanks

 

[dhanson865]

The 3% difference isn't going to do much for heating.

It'd be a few hundred watts, about 1/3 of a block heater for an ICE vehicle. Not a lot but not nothing. And that's assuming it's 3% less efficient than using a charging cable.

Several links have been posted suggesting it won't be 3% less efficient. I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.

 

[MartinAustin]

Best thing I've read in a while -

 

[Buckminster]

As a Tesla shareholder since 2014 and an avid follower of TMC and all things EV, I watch the current situation and the share price with a mixture of trepidation and curiosity. Of course our earlier investments are still in good shape and only a few later added(during the last drop) are under-water.

It feels to me as if Tesla has launched and cleared the tower(Model 3 ramp) and is now experiencing Max Q – a time of greatest stress before getting to orbit.

People who are here or who have done proper investigation of the fundamentals of Tesla know that it is solid and primed for big growth and success. My feeling is that Tesla is driven now solely by optimising profits to invest in new facilities and R & D to improve margins; efficiencies and so on. Everything is decided on this premise, however odd it may make some decisions appear (Service centres; superchargers; advertising; options; demand/pricing etc).This may have the effect of feeling cold-blooded and lacking in dreams and magic – so be it! Even if it reflects on the depressed share price......

In some ways this is a high-wire act as Tesla is growing hugely virtually based on two models in a few colours and versions! If these hadn't been so successful (or they suddenly fall out of favour),Tesla would be in a little bit of a pickle – which is, I suspect, why so many cautious investors seem to be staying away at present.

Then there is the issue of the Tesla shine which has dimmed a bit with FSD, Cybertruck, revised Model 3 and Y; 4680 battery production; service centres and superchargers and so on lagging a bit on expectations.

But as long as demand is good enough to support growth then all is well and Tesla has a huge number of demand levels to pull should the need become urgent. Including advertising/information supply; greater options in colours/trims/prices/models; upgraded interiors (incl HUD/drivers screen if deemed beneficial); higher profile signage at Superchargers and Service centres; more Service Centres (and Superchargers); additional models if the numbers stack up(hatchback/estate Model 3; boxy Model Y and so on); Cybertruck; Roadster (Halo car if required) and, of course, a cheaper Tesla Model2 (better and cheaper than the best value Model 3) etc etc...

I suspect each and everyone of these options has been assessed by Tesla against cost and need and demand. As so many posters note ,Tesla has mountains of data and little is left to chance.

As a Tesla investor/fan/supporter I also get frustrated by some of the directions Tesla seems to being taking but have faith that none(or very little) is arbitrary and ill-thought out....

Let's clear Max Q and get to orbit – may take a while yet (Cybertruck; big Semi ramp; Model 2 and revised/extended Model 3/Y range)

Last thought – I do find the emotional helter skelter here tiresome sometimes – like a bunch of manic depressives; unadulterated Bulls and determinated Bears.........There are, however, magnificent posters here who are always moderated and informative – useful information.

You know who you are!! Thanks

I prefer to think of production hell as MaxQ. We won people. We are now looking down from orbit on other rockets blowing up on the test stands.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Best thing I've read in a while -
View attachment 942987

Absolutely. I find it hilarious and depressing how many people think they can run Tesla better than Tesla’s CEO, management team, finance team and engineers. It’s a 120,000 employee company and we have zero internal data.

 

[betstarship]

Absolutely. I find it hilarious and depressing how many people think they can run Tesla better than Tesla’s CEO, management team, finance team and engineers. It’s a 120,000 employee company and we have zero internal data.

I mean, the dude and his team have been landing rockets for years. It's still astounding people, en masse, don't get this.

 

[dl003]

Best thing I've read in a while -
View attachment 942987

There can't be that many mountains left here since late 2022 so Tesla definitely has more data.

 

[Mengy]

It feels to me as if Tesla has launched and cleared the tower(Model 3 ramp) and is now experiencing Max Q – a time of greatest stress before getting to orbit.

I like that...great way to succinctly sum up my own general feeling about TSLA for quite awhile now!

 

[Skryll]

Or have some understanding of the energy levels involved. Elon won't try to change basic physics.

AAPL plunged during yesterday's Closing Cross, just as TSLA bounced. Speculation is money moved from A to T.

View attachment 942981

Funny thing is, I did the exact same thing on a much smaller scale on Tuesday, traded my AAPL shares for TSLA Leaps. My reasoning was that apple had a good run, that china relations will affect both but probably Tesla less as they are diversifying more and more and their product is recession-hedged as it allows saving money when energy prices go up, i.e. gas (go electric cars) or electricity (make your own with solar/battery). An $1k iPhone, maybe less so.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Looking ahead to June 16. The current Max Pain is at 173.33, with Call oi at 960Km Put at 759K for a total oi of 1720K.
The next three weeks will be interesting...

 

[SOULPEDL]

"Unboxing" primarily means changing from a traditional linear assembly line to a "star" topology (one where all the components are assembled into modules separately, then come together just once as the final act).

Fremont's paint shop will not be well suited to "unboxing", it's setup for the old-style build process. What Fremont can do with "Project Highland" is adopt the 48v architecture (including automating installation of the wiring harness), F/R gigacastings + structural bty pack, and cosmetic updates to differentiate the "refreshed" Model 3 (that's what will show up in the mass media, not pictures of amazing Munro teardowns).

Better build quality, lower COGS, higher sales. Winning.

Cheers!

Not sure if obvious or I'm naive, but could Highland also be the same design for the anticipated $25K? Only difference is it requires the new Factory Assembly methods (Mex and beyond) to squeeze the last margin out for a solid $25K vehicle? And so maybe this one's $30K?

Edit: Further (into speculating), one would assume we need a solid vehicle design prior to a Factory build. This suits the timing I believe for Mexico.
Edit 2: And does not preclude their ability to start building them old-style in Fremont, with some hybrid operations to test some of Mexico factory layouts and equipment.

 

[SOULPEDL]

TSLA only matching the S&P today - Meh.
When do they light the fuse?

 

[cliff harris]

FWIW people could be dumping AAPL ahead of next weeks reveal of their VR/AR headset. There are murmerings that the final product (much delayed) is not vaguely what they wanted, but they have to release SOMETHING at some point. It could be risky to hold apple stock until people know what the reaction will be.
No doubt some of those who sold AAPL bought some TSLA. A smart move if you ask me.

Glad to see the stock comfortable over $200. Every day is a step closer to the cybertruck announcement and reveal. Everything else is kinda noise right now. Its all about that shiny boxy thing