Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.

I’m glad they carved out an exception for automakers of exclusively electric vehicles, but it seems like that could be challenged by ICE manufacturers, (to allow for direct sales), or ICE dealers, to disallow direct sales of electric vehicles).

Don’t read the last paragraph, it is too political.
The law did not carve out an "exception for automakers of exclusively electric vehicles". The author of the article apparently did not read the law, but must've reinterpreted internet articles in the manner of the telephone game. There's much of that nowadays. Of course, the headline writer mentioned only Tesla as clickbait.

The law carved out an exception for automakers that have never had franchised dealerships. It just happens to be that those are almost entirely exclusive makers of EVs. The main point of the law is that automakers who have contracted with their own franchised dealerships are not allowed to compete directly with them.

The original bill did not have exceptions. I wrote my governor and two state legislators imploring them to except automakers that have never had franchised dealerships. There must've been others chiming in on that, including Tesla. Meanwhile, a few other states allow no such exceptions.
 
Last edited:
If you bought 2025 $420 leaps in January 2023 instead of TSLL, how much would you be up today?

It just happens so YTD 2023 is easy to benefit from, how about since TSLL inception Aug 9, 2022 ?

Kudos to @TrendTrader007 for taking one for the team and trying it out with real money, and making it out alive.

Just as TSLL can overperform the 1.5x daily leverage to the upside over time, it can, and generally will "overperform" to the downside in a prolonged bear market. I would hazard that $1put in TSLL today will yield as much profit as $3-4 put in TSLA if left unmolested until 2030.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20230615-195659.png
    Screenshot_20230615-195659.png
    160.5 KB · Views: 84
  • Like
Reactions: CarlS
Reading about TrendTraders experience with TSLL. I’m just learning about this now. So it’s 1.5 TSLA. If you’re playing on holding for 10 years what is the risk with TSLL?

Several implicit risks with TSLL:
  • Counterparty risk: you don't own your shares, somebody else does; they could go broke
  • Limited Liquidity: in a crash/sell off, YOU will be the bagholder (that part is guaranteed)
  • Canadian TFSA: 15% U.S. withholding tax on dividends paid to non-registered accounts (ie: RRSP's) and yes, pays a dividend on their shares.
Is that enough risk? I could root around for more if you need 'em... ;)

Cheers!
 
Last edited:
Do they use options to make it perform a multiple of the base stock? And the 1.5x in this case is just a goal of what they aim to do?

Still doesn't make sense, because if it's going up they buy calls to multiply it, but what do they do if it's going down to lose more than the amount it's going down?

Are you familiar with the Black–Scholes model for Options pricing? The TSLL folks use this model (or something like it) to buy and sell Calls at the appropriate strike price for an expected return of 1.5x (it'll vary moment to moment, but in the long run should be managable):

Black Scholes Calculator } Good Calculators (so you can play with it yourself)​
TSLA Option Chain | NASDAQ (a free site to get input data for Black-Scholes)​

TL;dr Don't expect to get good at this for 10 years. Do expect to get burned learning certain expensive lessons. They've made it complicated in order to trip up the rubes... GOTCHA!

Cheers!
 
Are you familiar with the Black–Scholes model for Options pricing? The TSLL folks use this model (or something like it) to buy and sell Calls at the appropriate strike price for an expected return of 1.5x (it'll vary moment to moment, but in the long run should be managable):

Black Scholes Calculator } Good Calculators (so you can play with it yourself)​
TSLA Option Chain | NASDAQ (a free site to get input data for Black-Scholes)​

TL;dr Don't expect to get good at this for 10 years. Do expect to get burned learning certain expensive lessons. They've made it complicated in order to trip up the rubes... GOTCHA!

Cheers!

I barely understand options, but I will take a look

Thanks
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Artful Dodger
Last edited by a moderator:
If you bought 2025 $420 leaps in January 2023 instead of TSLL, how much would you be up today?

It just happens so YTD 2023 is easy to benefit from, how about since TSLL inception Aug 9, 2022 ?

Kudos to @TrendTrader007 for taking one for the team and trying it out with real money, and making it out alive.
Between Dec 22 and January 23 I bought contracts on $500 leaps and contracts on $600 leaps expiring Jan 2025. (That's what I did with some of the money from the sale of my hangar and airplane. Most just went into TSLA shares.) I didn't catch the bottom, either too early or late ... oh well.

If Tesla is a car company it's wasted money and the contracts will expire worthless. If Tesla is the worlds preeminent AI company with a new factory producing Robotaxis then maybe I'll make a lot of money. I think between $800 and $1,000 per share is possible if Tesla executes and the AI narrative prevails. That'd be a 30- 50X+ return ... instead of the 6-7X return from buying straight shares.
 
Last edited:
The law did not carve out an "exception for automakers of exclusively electric vehicles". The author of the article apparently did not read the law, but must've reinterpreted internet articles in the manner of the telephone game. There's much of that nowadays. Of course, the headline writer mentioned only Tesla as clickbait.

The law carved out an exception for automakers that have never had franchised dealerships. It just happens to be that those are almost entirely exclusive makers of EVs. The main point of the law is that automakers who have contracted with their own franchised dealerships are not allowed to compete directly with them.

The original bill did not have exceptions. I wrote my governor and two state legislators imploring them to except automakers that have never had franchised dealerships. There must've been others chiming in on that, including Tesla. Meanwhile, a few other states allow no such exceptions.
In tonight's video, Rob Maurer cited an article that summarized the law quite differently from the article I linked. I was going to research the law itself to see which was right. Thank you for saving me that trouble, you are more trustworthy than any media, main street or otherwise. But thank you even more for your initiative in helping to get the exception included in the law. I think I remember your post a month or three ago urging others to petition the Governor and legislators with respect to the law, which I would have done if I lived in Florida. (I did take delivery of my Model 3 in Jacksonville back in 2018, a very pleasant experience I must say. We were treated like royalty!)
 
$500 rebate on Powerwall installations in the US done by 10/31:


Odd timing if it's meant to be an EOQ incentive. Or that date could indicate when the Powerwall 3 is due for launch.
This doesn’t look like it’s for the Powerwall 3? Incentive to get rid of current supply before introducing PW3?

Too bad. I’ve been patiently waiting for them to release the new product. LFP is the way to go for stationary storage.
 
An update from Tesla's Energy BizDev lead. Puerto Rico just issued an order for waiving some red tape:


App screenshots from yesterday from one of the volunteer Powerwall owners in the ERCOT demo program:
When is Tesla going to enroll car owners in a program? Let us volunteer to load shed via delaying charging; and share the revenue with owners. With the number of cars charging this could be huge with no equipment needed. Makes way more sense than equipment on water heaters and pool pumps.
 
Went to my local SeC yesterday to get something fixed on our Model S Plaid. Everything was full of new vehicles. Model Ys from Berlin in all colors. Even 5-10 in Midnight Cherry Red, was super happy to see that stunning color in different configurations waiting for their new owners.

Despite this, the employee instantly recognized me and we had a short, fun chat. I love this familiar feeling when visiting Tesla.

Great experience as always!
 
$500 rebate on Powerwall installations in the US done by 10/31:


Odd timing if it's meant to be an EOQ incentive. Or that date could indicate when the Powerwall 3 is due for launch.
We've known for a long time that Tesla has been significantly underperforming in the residential (domestic) storage segment. The approx 2020 number was identifiable, and now we have confirmation that the annual volume can barely have accelerated since then. So likely that at best the annual run rate is approx 150k Powerwalls/yr at present. So about 1.5GWh/yr going into Tesla Powerwall in 2023. Here is an old forecast I did based upon what I knew the demand growth was doing back then - the scale of the lost opportunity is instructive.

1686904178982.png


And here is my understanding of global cell consumption for a comparison. As you can see the Tesla performance does not reflect a lack of demand in the total global stationary storage sector, and about 1/3 of that is domestic scale storage. So domestic scale global product is 10-15GWh/yr at present depending on whether using 2022 (actual) or 2023 (fcast). So Tesla is now down to about a 10% market share in global residential (domestic) stationary storage. Five years ago Tesla's global market share in that segment was well over 50%, and may have peaked at 68-70% or so.

1686904433376.png


Before anyone quibbles about "lack of cells" or "lack of power electronics" it is worth pondering that the other manufacturers got their components & cells from somewhere. In essence this is a market that Tesla - and the entire western world - has almost entirely ceded to Chinese manufacturers even if the result gets badged.

This was not due to a shortage of capital or cash in Tesla. It was a prioritisation of mental effort issue, and an inability to manage organisational bandwidth. Whether you consider that to be a failure of leadership, or a sign of good leadership, depends on whether you are a glass half full or a glass half empty person. Clearly Tesla pretty much chose to give up in this segment. I am not convinced that the parallel recovery effort in utility scale storage segment will succeed - I suspect that will be a case of too little/too late.

(Of course I hope I am wrong.)
 
Last edited:
We
We've known for a long time that Tesla has been significantly underperforming in the residential (domestic) storage segment. The approx 2020 number was identifiable, and now we have confirmation that the annual volume can barely have accelerated since then. So likely that at best the annual run rate is approx 150k Powerwalls/yr at present. So about 1.5GWh/yr going into Tesla Powerwall in 2023. Here is an old forecast I did based upon what I knew the demand growth was doing back then - the scale of the lost opportunity is instructive.

View attachment 947495

And here is my understanding of global cell consumption for a comparison. As you can see the Tesla performance does not reflect a lack of demand in the total global stationary storage sector, and about 1/3 of that is domestic scale storage. So domestic scale global product is 10-15GWh/yr at present depending on whether using 2022 (actual) or 2023 (fcast). So Tesla is now down to about a 10% market share in global residential (domestic) stationary storage. Five years ago Tesla's global market share in that segment was well over 50%, and may have peaked at 68-70% or so.

View attachment 947496

Before anyone quibbles about "lack of cells" or "lack of power electronics" it is worth pondering that the other manufacturers got their components & cells from somewhere. In essence this is a market that Tesla - and the entire western world - has almost entirely ceded to Chinese manufacturers even if the result gets badged.

This was not due to a shortage of capital or cash in Tesla. It was a prioritisation of mental effort issue, and an inability to manage organisational bandwidth. Whether you consider that to be a failure of leadership, or a sign of good leadership, depends on whether you are a glass half full or a glass half empty person. Clearly Tesla pretty much chose to give up in this segment. I am not convinced that the parallel recovery effort in utility scale storage segment will succeed - I suspect that will be a case of too little/too late.

(Of course I hope I am wrong.)
We are currently looking at stationary battery storage for our house and all companies we have been in contact with have clearly not recommended Tesla's Powerwall. They say it is not as efficient and quite more expensive than competitors products (Here in Germany).
 
We

We are currently looking at stationary battery storage for our house and all companies we have been in contact with have clearly not recommended Tesla's Powerwall. They say it is not as efficient and quite more expensive than competitors products (Here in Germany).
In retrospect, was the SolarCity acquisition any good for 2016 TSLA shareholders who didn't own SCTY (assuming Elon would have been the same Tesla CEO even if SolarCity went bankrupt)?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: petit_bateau