Not a fan of Zerosum's bullishness, and esp. margins:
-BNEF recognizes prices are increasing (there's anecdotal evidence of this, as well), but to $3XX zone, not $600/KWh Twitter-land.
-No posts (sales/orders"es) are given, which may be too much to expect, but counting on the highest price Tesla had on its web (2.1mn) = silly.
-He defends his margins by assuming these revenues, then proves them through (more realistic) costs
-As others have criticized, this is "hardware" where >50% margins never exist for long.
-Don't treat shifting 4 hours of solar load into the evening, like the next FSD. Utilities are a commodities business.
As a utility analyst, I'd agree batteries mated with renewables will outrun natural gas (with low capacity factors). I wouldn't dispute 2023 could add dimes of annual EPS to $TSLA, or possibly more, but just how hard to run with the impacts of the IRA is a process whose total optimism still ultimately faces sell-side competition. Medium/Long-term: buyer price-insensitivity will quickly attract more sellers. Don't bank on secret sauce (auto-bidder, maintenance gravy, or other margin fattening claims). The money is in fundamentally storing daily peak production, and then shifting it ~4 hours.
We are at a time of some new, non-automotive, EPS I think. Good thread bump. On a side note, very saddened to read about PZ1975. Many are $$ troubled, right now. I don't think it is time to accuse street analysts of "sandbagging" as claimed, even if the utility side shows hope. Folks have had enough false hope, already. For me, looking like a bottom off the Q4 report. However, I'd feel better if Elon were removed if he can't agree to sales restrictions & blocking up pre-negotiated trades. That went too far.
Can you shed any light on Tesla’s opportunity and/or margins as a VPP? Particularly in Texas where there seems to be a very competitive landscape for electricity providers. With the population of the Dallas and Houston areas (where most of the open markets are) seems that Tesla could see a large customer take rate in 2023 in those areas. Thoughts?