Thanks for starting this thread. IIRC, Tesla has already received building permits from the City of Fremont for some battery lines. Presumably for both bty cells and packs, since Tesla's new architecture will be integrated (no modules; just cells-to-pack).
These permits don't mean Fremont is gearing up for large scale production, however. It could just be for Plaid S/X/Roadster, R&D test mules, skunkworks projects, and similar such low-volume vehicles.
Not sure why you think Tesla would move Powerwall/Pack+Megapack assembly to New York. The lines already exist and are in production at GF1/Sparks, and it would be a tremendous logistics burden to transport the finished 2170s from Fremont to New York, as well as a production delay.
I don't see M2 (the $25K sub-compact EV) being produced in N.America. It's the least popular segment in the USA, and faces the lowest ASP and lowest margin competitiors. Model 2 will be a big hit in Asia, and will likely need the low cost manufacturing available in China. Small Numbers may be imported to the USA, and I'm certain a Model 2 hatchback would sell in Canada, but again that's an even smaller market.
Cheers!