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Gigafactory locations and products

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I doubt Tesla will be another Gigafactory so close to Berlin. Maybe some research center, or a battery plant:I'm all in favor of battery/Megapacks plants, even one per country. Demand is infinite.
Btw, Musk is right now in Rome, he will talk with First Minister Meloni this afternoon.
South France is a long way from Berlin. Also, new factory will produce gen 3 so there maybe won't be a benefit from distance between locations.
 
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Thanks for starting this thread. IIRC, Tesla has already received building permits from the City of Fremont for some battery lines. Presumably for both bty cells and packs, since Tesla's new architecture will be integrated (no modules; just cells-to-pack).

These permits don't mean Fremont is gearing up for large scale production, however. It could just be for Plaid S/X/Roadster, R&D test mules, skunkworks projects, and similar such low-volume vehicles.



Not sure why you think Tesla would move Powerwall/Pack+Megapack assembly to New York. The lines already exist and are in production at GF1/Sparks, and it would be a tremendous logistics burden to transport the finished 2170s from Fremont to New York, as well as a production delay.



I don't see M2 (the $25K sub-compact EV) being produced in N.America. It's the least popular segment in the USA, and faces the lowest ASP and lowest margin competitiors. Model 2 will be a big hit in Asia, and will likely need the low cost manufacturing available in China. Small Numbers may be imported to the USA, and I'm certain a Model 2 hatchback would sell in Canada, but again that's an even smaller market.

Cheers!
It is near certainty that the M2 will be produced in North America in Monterrey. That provides for Mexico, Central and South America to be supplied form there; remember Mercosur has a free trade agreement with Mexico. I will be amazed if it will not be produced in China, somewhere in the EU and, quite possibly in India. The Model 2 will outsell the Model Y everywhere except the US. I say that without a clue at what it will be other than smaller that a Model 3. Personally I'd buy two. Depending on other developments it would be unsurprising to see that and another model produced in South Korea.

Most of us seem to be underestimating the potential of the smaller vehicles. Not only Model 2 but also a smaller Cybertruck which must happen for volume sales anywhere other than the US and Australia. The Highland reveal will probably give us more clues. Finally, the 'Hot Hatch' market is wildly profitable for those who compete best. Those profits help enable better scale economies for the more basic models and supply a handy upgrade path.

I'm betting on a 2025 major launch for M2, which we rarely discuss. VW started that with the GTI, but now the category is popular with serious gear heads. The BEV versions haven't arrived yet, but Tesla can Supercharge the category.
 
Wembanyama will be playing for San Antonio spurs which is just 1 hour from Austin. Won’t hurt Austin in continuing to be the place for young folk to move to and continue to attract the best talent for the expanding gigafactory. I can imagine Elon watching them play a few times which will be good for everyone.
Maybe Elon should give him a CT to prove that even 7’4” basketball player can fit.
 
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Tesla won't build most of the 48v components for its Monterrey Giga factory. Instead, about a hundred new supplier facilities are (even now) under construction in Nuevo Leon. One Chinese supplier, for example, is investing $100M in their new plant.

Tesla Looks for Local Parts Suppliers as It Builds Mexico Plant | BNN Bloomberg (June 10, 2023)

 
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I agree with @TheAccountant on logic but perhaps not on some locations.
For next EU I'd lay odds on somewhere like Slovakia, Austria, Spain or similar industry-intensive lower- cost, more-hospitable locations rather than France, partly due to labor;

I do agree that Tesla will end out in each major auto market for auto manufacturing so sometime soon they'll be in Brazil, following BYD and others already building BEVs' there, so long as China supports the move by encouraging Chinese suppliers in Brazil to support Tesla.

Others for auto will be opportunistic and depend heavily on government support, just like India, and Brazil.
The major moves will be the less celebrated ones to assure raw material and parts supplies, so numerous countries will see large facilities.

I also concur with @Buckminster, who expects Tesla to have facilities in all the ten largest car markets with the question being: what facilities? There we will not be surprised to see Megapactories, as he said, in many locations. However there are many ways to achieve government support for favorable Tesla treatment so those supply sources will continue to source from hospitable places, mostly those that have favorable customs treatment with China, EU and/or US. Once passing, say, two million vehicles per year global arrangements become crucial.

These will be exciting times, whatever happens! Beyond Tesla specifics the climate disasters will accelerate so we'll have both positive and negative surprises and continuing refugee issues, some from surprising places.