Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StapleGun]

What are the odds of this getting asked and answered in a satisfactory manner during the July 19th call?

It would make for a fun question for this group of investors to collaborate on getting the question formed "properly" that produces a likely helpful answer. Honestly, while I think I want the answer, part of me worries that the answer might be too aligned with the mission for my personal tastes...

This should absolutely be the top say.com question. I agree with you if it's just phrased as "How does Tesla benefit from these partnerships?" then the answer we will be given is Elon saying "We're not sure if we will benefit, but it seems like the right thing to do."

I'd prefer to see a question like "Zach, when will Tesla begin to recognize revenue from Supercharger network partnerships?". I think that improves the chances that we get an insight into whether there is any licensing agreement in place or if Tesla only intends to make money selling the energy. Or perhaps even ask that more directly "Are other OEMs paying Tesla directly for access to the Supercharge network?".

 

[Captkerosene]

This sounds like what I wrote. Zero sum. Yes, it is simplistic.



If there is a seller and a buyer who agree to make a transaction that eventually results in a share trading hands it will result in a zero sum in regard to that share.

If that person takes their money from the sale and buys another share, that too will result in another zero sum transaction.

Any time a transaction occurs, it will result in a zero sum outcome.

If, over time, a savvy investor or trader makes mostly profitable transactions, then, some other investor or trader has incurred more losses than profitable trades. Again, zero sum.

It may be worth considering the benefits of seeing how to avoid making something over-complicated which is actually simplistic.

It is a zero sum game for the parties involved. However, there are others who may benefit or lose because of the transaction and they are not subject to the zero sum rule. For example, it the last trade today spikes up to $1,000 per share, we will all have benefitted by being able to mark up the value of our portfolios. An "unrealized" gain to be sure but a gain none the less.

 

[Captkerosene]

Pardon me for posting on daily stock prices. I do think today was important though. Normally, I don't like comparing the stock market to a war. The battle for this or the battle for that. We did repel an attack last week though when four WS brokerage houses teamed up to move the stock lower. In my mind, that battle is now over in that they didn't come after us aggressively today. It may take a while for them to assemble the troops for their next offensive. (This is the last of my short term musings.)

 

[H Mak]

GM's lack of EV progress. They stopped highlighting total EV sales in the powerpoint deck.

Q2 2023

Hummer - 47 - Down 80% over last year.
Lyriq - 1348
Bolt - 13959 off the pace of Q1 of about 20K, up 100% over last year when the recall was still going on.

Tesla's estimated increase units in the US Q1 to Q2 (about 18K units) is more than the total GM US EV sales. The really bad thing is they are launching the Silverado and Blazer have not even gotten the Hummer and Lyriq off the ground. yes, Mary lead.

https://investor.gm.com/static-files/54224c7a-7000-42c4-8f7a-47f5aecc4e33

Well at least no-one needs worry about their cars clogging up the Tesla chargers

 

[y_naught]

What do I win?

 

[ZeApelido]

View attachment 953445


Let's go.

Just don't accidentally sit on it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well at least no-one needs worry about their cars clogging up the Tesla chargers

Prob Elon's thinking as well, "sure, we'll let them use our SC's, they can't scale production to a meaningful level anyways"

 

[EldestOyster]

Everyone said:

Blah blah blah zero sum blah blah...

Trading our company's stock amongst ourselves is a zero sum activity only if the Market Cap does not change.

 

[2daMoon]

What do I win?
View attachment 953476

you win the interwebz for today

 

[JRP3]

Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Krugman, a professor emeritus at Princeton and New York Times columnist, has been optimistic about the economy for years, and now he’s taking a victory lap with inflation coming down. He’s also telling his audience not to listen to “recession truthers” like Musk or the others who loudly predicted a recession and are annoyed that it hasn’t happened yet.

“You might have expected technology billionaires to be well-informed about the world—someone like Musk could, if he chose, easily maintain a large research department for his personal edification,” Krugman wrote in a Wednesday column for the Times. “Yet they are often, in practice, easy marks for grifters and con men.”

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman dismisses Elon Musk’s economic predictions, calling them conspiracy theories by a ‘recession truther’

The Princeton economist and New York Times columnist said tech billionaires are “often, in practice, easy marks for grifters and con men.”

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hiline]

It is a zero sum game for the parties involved. However, there are others who may benefit or lose because of the transaction and they are not subject to the zero sum rule. For example, it the last trade today spikes up to $1,000 per share, we will all have benefitted by being able to mark up the value of our portfolios. An "unrealized" gain to be sure but a gain none the less.

This is true. For a stock that goes down, the buyer loses and the seller wins, relative to doing nothing. For a stock that goes up, the buyer wins and the seller loses.

If a one-share TSLA transaction happens today at $280, and in a year TSLA reaches $420, the buyer wins $140 and the seller loses $140, relative to the status quo of the transaction not happening.

In this sense, buying and selling stocks is a zero-sum game.

 

[AndrewZ]

This is true. For a stock that goes down, the buyer loses and the seller wins, relative to doing nothing. For a stock that goes up, the buyer wins and the seller loses.

If a one-share TSLA transaction happens today at $280, and in a year TSLA reaches $420, the buyer wins $140 and the seller loses $140, relative to the status quo of the transaction not happening.

In this sense, buying and selling stocks is a zero-sum game.

Then there’s the other less exciting side of stocks where you buy, hold, and let the company return their earnings to you through their operation over time.

Theres such a big focus on the speculative side with buying and selling in modern times, but this is still what underlies the fundamentals and how ”real” businesspeople make money — by acquiring a company that produces a good/service the world needs, makes profit doing it, and eventually returns that profit to you. Stocks are just pieces of businesses, everything else is kind of a sideshow.

A “growth” company is merely one where more of the money is currently better invested in further expansion, but the end goal and what determines valuation is still how much money that company will eventually return discounted over X amount of time at Y interest rates.

 

[Thekiwi]

This is true. For a stock that goes down, the buyer loses and the seller wins, relative to doing nothing. For a stock that goes up, the buyer wins and the seller loses.

If a one-share TSLA transaction happens today at $280, and in a year TSLA reaches $420, the buyer wins $140 and the seller loses $140, relative to the status quo of the transaction not happening.

In this sense, buying and selling stocks is a zero-sum game.

Lolwut?!? This is nonsense. GTFO.

SIMPLE EXAMPLE:

Company X has 1,000,000 shares on issue.

There are 100 shareholders owning 10,000 shares each.

Current share price is $10. Market cap is $10 million. Each shareholder with 1,000 shares has $100k worth of shares.

1 person sells their 1,000 shareholding to a new investor, at a price of $11 per share.

After transaction with the share price at $11: market cap is $11 million. Each shareholder with 1,000 shares has $110k worth of shares.

$1 million worth of market cap has been added, no one has lost any money.

Even using the absurd notion of foregone gains by those that sold, the person who sold at $11 has lost precisely zero dollars, while the other 999 shareholders have gained $10,000 each.

lets say the next sale is at $22 per share. The market cap increases by $11 million to $22 million, and 999 shareholders gain $110k in the value of their holding. The one person who sold at $11 has missed out on that $110k in upside gains, but that is 1 person missing out on 110k vs 999 people up 110k each.

In no way is that a zero sum game.

There is a reason the Weapon of Mass Wealth Creation known as the stockmarket is one of the best inventions ever.

 

[Tommy O]

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman dismisses Elon Musk’s economic predictions, calling them conspiracy theories by a ‘recession truther’

The Princeton economist and New York Times columnist said tech billionaires are “often, in practice, easy marks for grifters and con men.”

finance.yahoo.com

Not saying he’s wrong, but I am saying he’s someone I pay precisely zero attention to because he’s overcome by emotion and although 500 IQ points higher than me believes things that aren’t true because he will say anything to support his own “team.”

Krugman admits he was wrong on inflation. Props to him for admitting his mistake here, but the guy working the corner store knew this loooong before the Nobel laureate did.

Not even sure what the point of your post was. To “own” Elon? We already all know your opinions.

 

[hobbes]

Not directly on topic, but still relevant as it gives a glimpse into a future (this might become a regular thing, showcasing the potential of big batteries):

Tief negative Strompreise: Elektroauto-Besitzer in Europa können mit Aufladen Geld verdienen

Reichlich Strom-Angebt bei wenig Nachfrage führte am Sonntag zu tief negativen Börsenpreisen – Elektroauto-Besitzer bekamen Geld fürs Laden.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

 

[JRP3]

Not even sure what the point of your post was. To “own” Elon? We already all know your opinions.

Elon talks about the economy and presumably steers the company accordingly, it's relevant if he's correct or not. Everyone is free to decide the validity of Krugman's points.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Several media outlets are reporting VW is in talks with Tesla to join the NACS (Tesla) standard for North American vehicles. IMO this carries more weight than Ford or GM joining. VW is the 2nd largest auto manufacturer in the World with brands that include Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Porshe and Lamborghini. If VW joins, in order to stay competitive in the EV landscape, BMW and Mercedes will need to join as well or become obsolete. Also with the largest European manufacturer adapting to NACS if their talks are successful with Tesla, it may also cause NACS to become a world standard, not just in the USA.

MSN

This is likely helping drive TSLA up after hours.

 

[MP3Mike]

VW is the 2nd largest auto manufacturer in the World with brands that include Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Porshe and Lamborghini.

All of VW may not go even if the main VW brand adapots NACS... Porsche has said no:

Also with the largest European manufacturer adapting to NACS if their talks are successful with Tesla, it may also cause NACS to become a world standard, not just in the USA.

NACS will never be a world standard. China requires their own GB/T for both AC and DC. (Separate connectors.) Europe has regulations for CCS2, which the top portion supports 3-phase AC charging, while NACS doesn't. (Not to mention how much the CCS2 network is built out there already, and it doesn't have the reliability problems that CCS1 has in North America.)

But it might get us down to three main "standards":

• CCS2
• NACS
• GB/T

CCS1 and CHAdeMO will likely be left to die. (CCS1 would have had a chance if CPO built out the network faster and had higher reliability.)

 

[space_s3x]

Tesla currently has 52 job openings for the Tesla Bot. It is worth noting that 5 of these postings are specifically for "Manufacturing". What's even more exciting is that one of these positions is for a "Line Lead" role in Sparks, Nevada!

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Manufacturing job openings

Line Lead - Tesla Bot

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice move !! Capped but I’ll take it! Hopefully we move closer towards 300 by week end

The Main Event™ will be the Monthly Options Expiry on the 3rd Friday of July, the 21st, which is just 2 days after the Q2 results + Earnings Call. The 52-wk High SP is $314.67, and it's just $315.51 to regain $1T Mkt Cap (a current share count).

Good Times!®