2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
The SP reminds me of a Timex
this morning.
It is taking a licking and keeps on ticking.
this morning.It is taking a licking and keeps on ticking.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Mike Smith
Active Member
It's amazing how many intelligent people believe investing/trading is a 'zero sum game'. It's not. S&P has been rising 10% per year since the time of dinosaurs. Tesla is worth $850B dollars. Do you think some poor souls have lost $850B dollars betting against Tesla? They have not.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I always like to think of it as the biggest finger ever given
Pre-Market, Schnee-Market...
Note: Upper-BB now at 285.55
Cheers to the Longs!
Not really strange. There's a couple of reasons. First it gets access to markets not already served. Second, it is closer to the design centre, so it's easier for engineers to keep in touch and physically see the new model manufacturing process. Remember this is a new vehicle, not an existing vehicle. Also there is less of a language problem because many in North America speak Spanish.
TrendTrader is a day trader, he is constantly moving shares, buying and selling and playing options, looking at TA and whatnot. I think the stock market is a zero sum game on a day to day basis, but long term investing (like most of us here are) is certainly NOT a zero sum game. It's one of the reasons why HODLing works better than day trading.
In this light TrendTrader's comment is both true and his greatest problem. If he had simply bought shares long ago and held them he'd likely be in a better spot than he is today. It's why dead people make for the most successful investors: they are natural HODLers, which in the long term, simply works best.
Not financial advice of course!!!
petit_bateau
Active Member
Sure, and I wasn't clear on which (linear or exponential) you were advocating for, so I was providing some more data.
In commissioning means the linest equipment are assigned and in process. Meaning Austin will have at least four lines regardless of Berlin ramp.
Short term: exponential (increasing delta)
Medium term: linear (constant delta)
Long term: flat (no delta)
Now all we need is to define short, medium, and long
Thank you. Indeed I had not fully understood what you meant. My apologies and thank you for making it clearer.
Now I do understand you, then that adds some interesting information and begs a question in response from me. If in Q4-2022 there were four manufacturing lines of 4680 in situ in Austin (at varying states of prod and commissioning), then:
Q1. Do we know if any further lines have since been added at Austin ?
Q2. Do we know how many (equivalent-sized) lines are at Kato Rd ?
As a 'for-example' if there are 2 equivalent-sized lines at Kato Rd, and if I am correct in my deductions below, then that would suggest a steady-ish state capacity of 6m cells/qtr per equivalent-line. Which in turn would suggest a plateau rate of 24m/qtr for the four lines at Austin once they are fully operational. I've drawn a red line at that point, and you can see I may be considerably under-estimating the plateau as a result. It will be even more bonkers if Kato Rd has only one equivalent line, though that does beg a further question as my deduced 12m/qtr plateau for Kato Rd may be wrong of course.
Q3. Do we have any insight into Q2-2023 Kato Rd production rate ?
In Brazil it would sell like Pão de Quejo. Hotcakes don't really sell there.
What vehicle(s) will be launched on that platform are thus far undefined. However, if the assumed variants include:
-a small sedan;
-a hatch;
-a Hot Hatch;
-a sort of minivan;
-some urban bus types;
-small cargo variants.
There is every chance that will replace the Toyota Corolla variants as the world's best selling vehicle.
In this overall class the top sellers in most world markets are very stable.
In some large markets (India, China, etc) the best sellers are smaller than those, so there is very high probability that Tesla will enter that size class once cost reduction and technical advance allow.
For all of these the charging networks need to be exponentially larger probably not necessarily fas larger but ubiquitous level 2 almost everywhere. Tesla Energy large scale growth to provide grid stability and resilience is a condition precedent in many places.
We have not yet seen the Tesla next stage plans, just clues in negotiations in India and hints of those elsewhere. These developments will be forthcoming before Monterrey matures, for sure. This is speculation, to be sure, but will be confirmed or not within a year or two.
With this and more around 10,000,000 vehicles per annum will be within reach. Elon just discusses growth but has given little solid information about model expansion and Tesla Energy goals. These do go together, even more so with the 2030's soon to arrive.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Wasn't there some talk of expanded battery manufacturing coming to Fremont? I seem to remember something about a new upper level over the existing factory, like how they built the Kato Rd 4680 development facility.
Perhaps I was hallucinating, or, it is but wishful thinking on my part.
Maybe it was this story, which it seems is nearer to the existing Kato Rd factory.
Edit: It was this article on Teslarati and if both are accurate that would indicate significant battery production expansion coming on line in Fremont.
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I happen to think I could beat a dead person.TrendTrader is a day trader, he is constantly moving shares, buying and selling and playing options, looking at TA and whatnot. I think the stock market is a zero sum game on a day to day basis, but long term investing (like most of us here are) is certainly NOT a zero sum game. It's one of the reasons why HODLing works better than day trading.
In this light TrendTrader's comment is both true and his greatest problem. If he had simply bought shares long ago and held them he'd likely be in a better spot than he is today. It's why dead people make for the most successful investors: they are natural HODLers, which in the long term, simply works best.
Not financial advice of course!!!
I'm also the worlds best driver and FSD is learning from me for good reason.
/s
Tesla has been discounting inventory since mid-May. The Model 3 SR+ discount grew from $500 to $2,500 and went down a bit to $2,200 over the period. The Model 3 LR discount has a different pattern. The Model Y discount has stayed basically the same at $500.
More info and discussion on inventory discounts here: Inventory Discussion
Just to be clear, that appears to reference battery pack production as opposed to more battery cell product in Fremont proper. Of course, that means a not insignificant number of cells from Kato.
um. recall somewhere last few years, may be in error, that, in aggregate, shortz had lost $40+ Billion (?enuf to finance a gigafactory or 3?)
back when Ihor S3 data was being posted
The value of stocks vastly outpaces inflation over the long term. Stocks (large cap and small cap) are the two blue lines. Inflation is the grey curve. Note the y-axis is logarithmic.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
My view is over a long period inflation eventually is priced into stocks.
Inputs increase-->prices are raised--->increased profits even if nominally (inflation adjusted) the same. The key is being able to hold long term as I do believe it can take a while for this cycle to play out.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Is this meant to dispute how inflation offsets the appearance of capitalization growth?
Looks like almost 30% of S&P's ten percent gains exist due to inflation of the money supply beyond the needs of expanding goods and services over this period. This seems significant to me. YMMV
This topic is totally OT, and probably doesn't even deserve a spinoff thread, so if Mods throw this and the others to OT, my apologies for making work for you.
Investing and trading are two different things.
S&P reflects the value of the companies, not the value of "gambling on the stock market" - the latter of which provides no intrinsic economic benefit to anyone (it doesn't feed, house, educate or heal anyone - you could argue it's entertainment, just like your local casino, where at least the "zero sum game" aspect is visible - some people profit at the expense of gamblers who trade their savings for the thrill, or a demise-by-addiction).
I would also argue those shortzes do make money (unethically by my standards, illegally if we can prove their naked short selling) and we HODLers lose the value they should otherwise have on TSLA stock.
Count me among the people who don't think those overpaid brokers deserve their 6, 7 and 8 figure compensation packages because financial transactions are cheap to supply these days and I don't see how providing bad advice to people on how to manage their savings is providing any real economic value to anyone.
But I digress on a tangent...
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Agreed. It seems to me that it takes at least five to ten years for an incremental increase in the money supply to filter down through the economy.
We are still feeling lingering effects of the 2008 crash, and the Covid inflation event is likely to be felt into the 2030s. The big hits cause waves and this is why central banks prefer to keep inflation in that 2%-3% range, so we just have ripples to deal with rather than something that capsizes the boat.
Still, an expanding money supply* (represented by price inflation) has to be figured into any long-term plan. How many Big Macs will today's dollar/euro/yuan buy in ten years? Inflation is a well hidden tax that is easily overlooked when investing for the distant future.
*beyond what is necessary for the growth of goods and services
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Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler - this morning:
• TSLA—Shares have reversed a declining price channel/surpassed resistance near $218• Recent bullish crossover between the 10-/30-week WMAs.• RS has climbed into positive territory and notable TechniGrade ranking.• Add to positions on pullbacks toward the rising 10-week MA.
• TSLA—Shares have reversed a declining price channel/surpassed resistance near $218• Recent bullish crossover between the 10-/30-week WMAs.• RS has climbed into positive territory and notable TechniGrade ranking.• Add to positions on pullbacks toward the rising 10-week MA.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
What are the odds of this getting asked and answered in a satisfactory manner during the July 19th call?
It would make for a fun question for this group of investors to collaborate on getting the question formed "properly" that produces a likely helpful answer. Honestly, while I think I want the answer, part of me worries that the answer might be too aligned with the mission for my personal tastes...
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