Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GSP]

Jim Farley, Ford CEO, basically gave the same reason for the F150 price cuts as Tesla did. Efficiencies have allowed them to reduce prices and keep margins in the OK range. If we’re being honest, we should give Ford the same benefit of the doubt as we have Tesla and take him at his word.

I thought the F150 price cuts were well timed personally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681061665754759169

Funny. Pricing is not based on cost. Pricing is based on what the market will pay. Cost affects price only indirectly, sometimes (not always) providing a floor at which the OEM will cut production to match demand at the chosen price.

OEMs, including Tesla, are not keen to explain this to customers. It is easier to use cost as an excuse for price changes (up or down).

GSP

 

[Stretch2727]

Agree. When is the last time Tesla launched a product with the lowest trim level first? Hint: Never. They always release the highest end trim first since it helps keep margins up while depreciating a *sugar* ton of expenditures for new equipment lines.

As others have pointed out this is not always true.

As an engineering driven company I am sure there are many factors in the decision how to launch a vehicle. What I do think they have shown is they know they can get to volume faster by having focus. With Model 3 it was the RWD. With the Model S/X redesign it was Model S Plaid.

The focus gets you higher volume faster. The biggest driver to good margins is volume.

 

[unk45]

Oh and I am happy for all you sumbitches that are climbing the mountain of cash.

We're quite happy ourselves, even more so are the beneficiaries! One of life's great pleasures is the ability to give highly appreciates shares to one's favorite charities (in US, among other countries) and yield gargantuan tax deductions. Of course that is a relative statement. Gargantuan to some might be petty cash to another.

One virtue of HODL is the eventual ability to do such things.
An explicit pitch: Doctors Without Borders, Save The Children, World Central Kitchen are among my favorites.

 

[unk45]

Funny. Pricing is not based on cost. Pricing is based on what the market will pay. Cost affects price only indirectly, sometimes (not always) providing a floor at which the OEM will cut production to match demand at the chosen price.

OEMs, including Tesla, are not keen to explain this to customers. It is easier to use cost as an excuse for price changes (up or down).

GSP

Just in case some of us might dispute your point: Examine AAPL margins, RACE and POAHF, the compare with any competitors other than TSLA. Durable high Gross margins demonstrate consistent pricing power. TSLA has that, and uses price as a weapon with ease. Then everyone bleats about low margins of >15%, which any OEM other than TSLA and the two above can only dream about.

 

[unk45]

All true, I'm thinking more like a "Powerpack" for your CT truck bed: Mostly independant systems for cooling, charging, modular wall-mount racking also doubles as truck bed mount. Will need a lift rig, but the CT does have an air compressor so...

Obviously, availabily would be down the road. Also a fantastic 1 month "lease" option for what $1K-ish? (just imagine adding this to your Cybertruck for holidays).

Even just announcing an Ext'd Range Bty Pack as a "Coming Product" instantly solves the buyer's remorse issues / Osborning for the "I'm waiting for 500 miles range" types, and increases TAM.

Cheers!

Those could complement nicely the trailer that acts as a large power reserve and could replace ICE generators in many applications. Those would need a handful of tricks to manage motors and braking/regeneration links, but nothing that Tesla can't handle easily, with the added benefit of possibly Increased rather than decreased range. There are already some forays from Airstream among others, but the one would be strictly for power storage in industrial applications, replacing ICE generators.

 

[JRP3]

Y’all are wasting pages discussing a rumor

That's much of what we do here but the idea is to figure out which rumors could be true.

 

[Stretch2727]

The GM Ultium thing keeps getting worse. The crazy thing is they were going to conquer the Tesla with 30 models which was a poor strategy when the real challenge is just getting batteries to get a few models to volume.

GM Shuts Down CAMI EV Plant Amid Ultium Battery Shortage

The unexpected decision is reportedly due to a "raw material bottleneck" that is preventing GM from building as many Ultium batteries as it needs.

insideevs.com

 

[larmor]

That's much of what we do here but the idea is to figure out which rumors could be true.

Or decide which news or unsubstantiated rumors which can be used as arbitrage to trade securities. Convenient piece of 'information' about range for the Cybertruck, which was intro'd as having a long range or a longer range to account for towing or load capacities.

 

[JRP3]

I only skimmed it but if anyone wants to read a very long super bullish article about TSLA here you go

Tesla: Conglomerate Building A Sustainable Future, At An Unsustainable Discount (TSLA)

Tesla is a highly sustainable technology conglomerate, yet its multifaceted business operations are not being properly valued. Learn more about TSLA stock here.

seekingalpha.com

Using reasonable estimates of Tesla's likely revenue and profit from sales of products and services in various markets, I calculate that Tesla's 2030 EPS will be ~$409 per share.

Note that's EPS not share price.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I posted a tweet showing pictures of the new European V4 SCs that had a screen and card reader and someone doubted its veracity bleating about poor image quality or some such. Will you trust this video instead? And my post did accurately link to the correct manufacturer of the screen/payment processor.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681234518458368000

 

[GOVA]

I've got some dry powder ready to go. Should I buy tomorrow or Thursday?

A large number of times I have bought before the ER, thinking "this time will be the time it goes up like a rocket... I need to be IN!!!" - and even though myself and others here were pleased with the results, the stock fell the next day due to "sell the news" or organised manipulation w/ help from the media.

Are we all super-confident the stock will go up, following the surprise manufacturing+deliveries numbers? Or... does anyone think TSLA will go down on Thursday?

Respectfully, with this kind of attitude which can only be described as childish gambling approach, I am surprised you posted this kind of question.

What answer do you expect to get? We can't even be "super-confident" there will be tomorrow, yet you want us to give you the stonk trend?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Most EVs suffer incredibly at 120km, Tesla is probably one of the best regarding range at higher velocity (i.e. aerodinamics).

I concur, just rented a Model Y on the east coast. Running AC and "keeping up wit the traffic" do not add up to stated range.

FYI, the speed limit on the 130 toll road that goes by the Austin Tesla factory is 80mph posted..................Trust me, Autobahn got nothing on Toll road 130.

 

[Nocturnal]

I concur, just rented a Model Y on the east coast. Running AC and "keeping up wit the traffic" do not add up to stated range.

FYI, the speed limit on the 130 toll road that goes by the Austin Tesla factory is 80mph posted..................Trust me, Autobahn got nothing on Toll road 130.

I was travelling at 85-90mph the other day coming through Oklahoma in the Y (and still getting passed sometimes). I didn't record the numbers but I was very surprised by how little the extra speed cost me in terms of range. Most of my long road trips have been in winter so I think the cold disguised that efficiency.

 

[bkp_duke]

I concur, just rented a Model Y on the east coast. Running AC and "keeping up wit the traffic" do not add up to stated range.

FYI, the speed limit on the 130 toll road that goes by the Austin Tesla factory is 80mph posted..................Trust me, Autobahn got nothing on Toll road 130.

Autobahn has everything on the 130 toll road.

Drivers on the Autobahn get the F out of the left lane. TX drivers typically do not.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I concur, just rented a Model Y on the east coast. Running AC and "keeping up wit the traffic" do not add up to stated range.

FYI, the speed limit on the 130 toll road that goes by the Austin Tesla factory is 80mph posted..................Trust me, Autobahn got nothing on Toll road 130.

Hmm. The stated range is based on EPA test conditions in North America. Definitely easy to get EPA range if driving similar to those conditions.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I only skimmed it but if anyone wants to read a very long super bullish article about TSLA here you go

Tesla: Conglomerate Building A Sustainable Future, At An Unsustainable Discount (TSLA)

Tesla is a highly sustainable technology conglomerate, yet its multifaceted business operations are not being properly valued. Learn more about TSLA stock here.

seekingalpha.com

Note that's EPS not share price.

The way he calculates that is way too optimistic and simplistic. For instance, he just assumes Teslabot will be 55% of Tesla revenue by 2030 due to a one sentence Elon quote that “Teslabot will likely have more revenue than the rest of Tesla”. To properly estimate Teslabot revenue, you have to model production start, realistic ramps, revenue structure (they are likely to rent them out), etc. This wouldn’t be hard to do, but the author’s forte seems to be writing words rather than spreadsheet analysis.

It isn’t a bad assemblage of words, don’t get me wrong. It lays out a pretty good summary of all the irons Tesla has in the fire right now.

As a techie, I would personally add all the advanced tech Tesla has that no one else has just to bolster narrative of the sustainability of their leads. Like unique alloys for Giga casting, Dojo supercomputer, massive fleet FSD data and learning loop, a master strategist in Elon (which no one gives him credit for), In-house software for all production (so the company can be flexible), in-house software for all vehicle modules (so car design can be flexible and cost effective). And I’m sure there are many others.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Autobahn has everything on the 130 toll road.

Drivers on the Autobahn get the F out of the left lane. TX drivers typically do not.

Reminds me of my youth when I toured Europe in an old VW microbus. Id occasionally get behind an even slower driver, I’d check the passing lane, clear forever behind me, so I pull out to pass. It takes a while in a rear engine air cooled VW microbus. Invariably, some Porsche would appear out of nowhere while I struggled mightily to pass some other schmuck. Generally, the Germans were polite and didn’t honk, but you could feel the hard stare before I could get over .

 

[UltradoomY]

The way he calculates that is way too optimistic and simplistic. For instance, he just assumes Teslabot will be 55% of Tesla revenue by 2030 due to a one sentence Elon quote that “Teslabot will likely have more revenue than the rest of Tesla”. To properly estimate Teslabot revenue, you have to model production start, realistic ramps, revenue structure (they are likely to rent them out), etc. This wouldn’t be hard to do, but the author’s forte seems to be writing words rather than spreadsheet analysis.

It isn’t a bad assemblage of words, don’t get me wrong. It lays out a pretty good summary of all the irons Tesla has in the fire right now.

As a techie, I would personally add all the advanced tech Tesla has that no one else has just to bolster narrative of the sustainability of their leads. Like unique alloys for Giga casting, Dojo supercomputer, massive fleet FSD data and learning loop, a master strategist in Elon (which no one gives him credit for), In-house software for all production (so the company can be flexible), in-house software for all vehicle modules (so car design can be flexible and cost effective). And I’m sure there are many others.

One of the reasons I miss @Discoducky posting - was a treasure to have someone so knowledgeable from the inside tell it like it is.

Come back please!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wait...that is not what Rawlinson said

Lucid board member on EV competition: We're not targeting Tesla

Former Dow CEO and current Lucid board member Andrew Liveris weighs in on the EV maker's plans.

finance.yahoo.com

Thought they were another "Tesla Killer"

 

[EQC_]

The way he calculates that is way too optimistic and simplistic. For instance, he just assumes Teslabot will be 55% of Tesla revenue by 2030 due to a one sentence Elon quote that “Teslabot will likely have more revenue than the rest of Tesla”. To properly estimate Teslabot revenue, you have to model production start, realistic ramps, revenue structure (they are likely to rent them out), etc. This wouldn’t be hard to do, but the author’s forte seems to be writing words rather than spreadsheet analysis.

Don't get me wrong...I haven't read the article and I make no judgement on its usefulness.

I'll also note that Elon himself probably didn't actually make a spreadsheet and was just making a rough estimate himself...

But: I might add that everybody making their own spreadsheet doesn't necessarily add value. Haha...I'm sure Gordon Johnson has made plenty of spreadsheets on Tesla, and we know how useful that has been. So rather than assorted folks producing a million different spreadsheets of varying wrongness, it would be better to identify the people with the best info and the best spreadsheets and spread those results.

So, in a way, this author perhaps decided Elon's "spreadsheet results" on the bot were the best, and just went with it for the article. Perhaps the author realized their own skill limits (writing vs. spreadsheeting) and made the decision not to spend a lot of time to plausibly end up with a more wrong prediction than Elon's.