Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Whoa, material information from an autobiography?

Biography, but apparently yes.

 

[Cosmacelf]

LoL, I was there, most of the day too. We probably walked right past each other.

We need to have small TMC pins so we can recognize each other in the wild…

 

[cab]

Regarding all these alternative vehicle production numbers...are we expecting Tesla is going to reduce their time to market on new product launches? Seems like it's actually elongated lately. CT, still not officially in production, was launched 4 years ago in November. Semi, launched in 2017, so going on 6 years. Roadster, well same as semi, only no clue to its actual production. Currently, Tesla hopes to enter 2024 with 1.8M-2M annual production rate, just 6 years out from 2030...Just stating that for Tesla to hit 20M vehicles by 2030, they'll have to make a significant improvement between announcement to production vs what's been displayed over the last few years.

Lately I've been wondering "When will everyone start updating their 'by 2030' estimates to be 'by 2032...or 35...or 40'?". 2030 seems to be almost aspirational or at least "everything has to go perfect for 2030 to happen". The battery challenges alone (raw materials to pack) appear significant and that's at least SOMEWHAT within Tesla's control. The MACRO challenges could be all over the board - heck, as others have predicted, we are now seeing political efforts (or at least vocal desires) to actually slow EV adoption down. None will ULTIMATELY succeed, but delay - sure.

Having said that, 2030/2032/2035 or even 2040 really aren't that much different from each other in the big picture of automotive evolution. Sure, they are VERY different for many folks here on the Investor's thread (especially us old guys!), but I'm not sure it really matters that much in terms of moving to electric. I DO think it matters in terms of which companies come out on top (with Tesla of course).

(note: I need to bookmark my own post to see how well it ages!)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Unless Tesla has a new type of Wall Connector that can bill, I suspect it's going to be the same as the current destination chargers: Charging cost subsidized by the hotel. The cost of charging six BEVs overnight is just a rounding error in the electricity cost of a hotel. The question is if Tesla is donating the Wall Connectors or is Hilton paying something?

Tesla Destination Chargers have had the facility for the owner to charge a fee for use since Dec 2020.

"Tesla adds option for 3rd party billing at Destination Chargers in latest software update. If you're a business or property owner with a Tesla Destination Charger on your property, you will soon be able to bill Tesla owners for the electricity they use to charge their vehicles."​

Tesla adds option for 3rd party billing at Destination Chargers in software update | driveteslacanada.ca (Dec 01, 2020)

Tesla has some stipulations in this offer, most notably that the landowner must provide no fewer than six (6) destination chargers per site. Sounds like this is exactly like the Hilton plan for '20K chargers, not less than 6 chargers per site'.

Cheers!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Heres 17x in 3 years selected, if the website had allowed a custom time period I could have selected 17x in 2 years.

But you think somehow that 7x is impossible in 6 years.

View attachment 972016

I can't tell if you're serious.

 

[Prunesquallor]

This is a fairly significant bit of news. Keep in mind once the production process is established they stated it should be a fairly straightforward cut and paste process to implement the same production line across all giga factories. When production starts I'll look forward to the ramp that should follow over the next several years

"Fairly significant"? Huge, I would say.

Austin is going to be expanded for the "new platform". No GigaMexico, at least not until the assembly line can be cut-and-pasted. The expected worldwide demand for the cheap non-robo EV is off the hook (Port of Houston is going to be a busy place).

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Uh, no, my estimate of $1400/share by 2030 is fairly conservative. My optimistic estimate is much, much higher.

7*250= 1750 so you're more conservative than all of them. I still think 1400 is too optimistic though.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Apologies if previously posted

"in May 2023, he decided to change the initial build location for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin"

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/08/walter-isaacson-elon-musk-book-excerpt

This is great - I think it derisks the next gen launch substantially and is likely to reduce the "production hell" period associated with any new vehicle.

Gen 2 might work out similar to the Model 3 ramp where they worked out the bugs in Fremont and then copy/paste to Shanghai for price & volume benefits.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Lately I've been wondering "When will everyone start updating their 'by 2030' estimates to be 'by 2032...or 35...or 40'?". 2030 seems to be almost aspirational or at least "everything has to go perfect for 2030 to happen".

I still shudder at the "2020 vison" corporate meetings I was forced to attend

 

[GhostSkater]

Really good news, and I think we finally have an answer to why there has been so much production equipment stored at Giga Texas for quite a while

From a Joe video. wouldn't surprise me if that is a entire next gen prototype production line sitting right there, we have seen more stuff being stored there but hardly any being removed

It might start to get assembled once Cybertruck and second Model Y lines go into production

 

[Singuy]

Heres 17x in 3 years selected, if the website had allowed a custom time period I could have selected 17x in 2 years.

But you think somehow that 7x is "pure fantasy" in 6 years.

View attachment 972016

It's better to treat it as a fantasy and be gratefully when it happens than to going into this thinking it'll 7x in 6 years and anyone who thinks otherwise are bear trolls.

 

[SOULPEDL]

We need to have small TMC pins so we can recognize each other in the wild…

Along with a Tesla FSD sticker on the glass for the license.
A Certificate of Safety - For the passengers to know, value, and trust.
"Why risk your life with just any driver? Hop in a Tesla Today!"

 

[Max Plaid]

I'm torn regarding the tidbits Isaacson "leaks" the past few days.

On the one hand I find them very interesting, but on the other hand they are spoilers for the book I've ordered. Oh well. I guess plenty will not have been discussed online.

I'm avoiding reading these things, of course it's hard to miss the headlines, but I'm trying my best... have the hardback on order from Amazon DE, but doesn't arrive until two whole weeks after release, so looks like it's a big seller

I shall acquire the eBook in the interim...

The big problem, and we see it already with the Starling/Ukraine mess on X, is that there will be endless source material for the FUDsters to play with, and all the positives will be ignored

 

[2daMoon]

Lately I've been wondering "When will everyone start updating their 'by 2030' estimates to be 'by 2032...or 35...or 40'?". 2030 seems to be almost aspirational or at least "everything has to go perfect for 2030 to happen". The battery challenges alone (raw materials to pack) appear significant and that's at least SOMEWHAT within Tesla's control. The MACRO challenges could be all over the board - heck, as others have predicted, we are now seeing political efforts (or at least vocal desires) to actually slow EV adoption down. None will ULTIMATELY succeed, but delay - sure.

Having said that, 2030/2032/2035 or even 2040 really aren't that much different from each other in the big picture of automotive evolution. Sure, they are VERY different for many folks here on the Investor's thread (especially us old guys!), but I'm not sure it really matters that much in terms of moving to electric. I DO think it matters in terms of which companies come out on top (with Tesla of course).

(note: I need to bookmark my own post to see how well it ages!)

The 2030 year is tied to Elon/Tesla's goal of 20M vehicles at that time.

This would be the most significant reason it isn't being moved forward.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I also wonder how Tesla is doing on Inductive Charging because I don't see how a fleet could operate without this ability.

Uh, Teslabot? Inductive charging wastes power. What's 7% of a few terawatt hours?

 

[2daMoon]

I can't tell if you're serious.

I was there, I saw it happen.

Even my share count went up 15X

This is fun!

... and there is a greater than zero chance it could happen again

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Uh, Teslabot? Inductive charging wastes power. What's 7% of a few terawatt hours?

With AV, somebody has to check for problems, clean, remove trash etc. Just add plugging in and unplugging to the job.

 

[Mengy]

7*250= 1750 so you're more conservative than all of them. I still think 1400 is too optimistic though.

I'm curious, but why do you feel $1400/share is too much by 2030?

Tesla is aiming for 20 million production by then, I think they'll fall short of that by 20% and my model uses lower margins than we have on auto today, and yet with a very modest PE of 30 and some conservative assumptions about Tesla Energy I still get $1400 by 2030. My honest opinion is TSLA has a very high chance to be much more than $1400 by 2030 with so many potential positive adders, but I'm leaning on the conservative side due to so many unknowns and such.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I was there, I saw it happen.

Even my share count went up 15X

This is fun!

Yes, it did happen and yes, it is POSSIBLE to happen again but it's very unlikely to happen at the same magnitude (or even 7X).

I don't know if I have enough visibility on this forum for other participants to know that I'm "all in" and a huge Tesla fanboi since 2013. I'm a bull and I think Tesla is going to rule the world but I don't think it's likely to 7X over the next 6 years from the current market cap.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I'm curious, but why do you feel $1400/share is too much by 2030?

Tesla is aiming for 20 million production by then, I think they'll fall short of that by 20% and my model uses lower margins than we have on auto today, and yet with a very modest PE of 30 and some conservative assumptions about Tesla Energy I still get $1400 by 2030. My honest opinion is TSLA has a very high chance to be much more than $1400 by 2030 with so many potential positive adders, but I'm leaning on the conservative side due to so many unknowns and such.

$1400 by 2030? There is not a doubt in my mind that we will be above that. That's not conservative. You're smack in the middle of bear country with those numbers.