Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FreqFlyer]

Not so sure. The wording is somewhat ambiguous. “Both had a Futuristic design like the Tesla cybertruck” does not necessarily mean cyber styling. They could look futuristic and not be cyber styled.

We are really doing this? Trusting Axios as a credible source?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

We are really doing this? Trusting Axios as a credible source?

Yes, it sounds completely credible to me.

 

[petit_bateau]

No. You are confusing Tesla Destination chargers (which is what the Hilton deal is) with Superchargers. The Hilton deal is worth 20,000 x $500 = $10M in hardware revenue. Not significant.

To my mind the significance is not so much the revenue value, more the a) increased number of plug'n'charge Tesla sites; and b) the mind share that Tesla has in the sector. Hilton today, other hospitality/travel sites/networks tomorrow.

This deal can be contrasted with the likes of Applegreen* seeking to set up their own-brand charger networks for fast chargers (aka Superchargers) which will be networks that are unlikely to have more than a few thousand chargers their 620 sites even if they fully build out at 10 per site . By comparison Hilton are saying that 12-20,000 slowchargers is not worth the hassle of ownbranding, and instead they will pull Tesla in. Compare & contrast.

Plus of course, who is to say that Hilton/etc will stop at (Destination) slowchargers. Maybe Hilton will restrain themselves to only slowchargers, but not all of the folk that choose to get within the Tesla ecosystem will restrain themselves. The network effects are good for Tesla.

* Applegreen are a UK-USA-Ireland forecourt operator. They recently bought the UK Welcome Break network of motorway service stations (that are utterly appalling regrettably) and it seems they are building out an own-brand fast charger network. I personally wonder what the minimum scale is to build such a fastcharger network in a viable manner.

Applegreen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Applegreen Electric | Fast Universal EV Charging

Applegreen Electric strives to constantly improve our offering to our customers. With our ever expanding network across the US, UK and Ireland, we are doing exactly this.

www.applegreenelectric.com

 

[UkNorthampton]

Apologies if previously posted

"in May 2023, he decided to change the initial build location for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin"

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/08/walter-isaacson-elon-musk-book-excerpt

But a problem soon arose in his mind: He had always believed that Tesla's design engineers needed to be located right next to the assembly line, rather than allowing manufacturing to be done at a remote location. That way, engineers could get instant feedback on how to design innovations that would both improve the car and make it easier to manufacture.

• This was particularly true for a completely new car and manufacturing process. But he realized he would have trouble getting his top engineers to relocate to the new factory. "Tesla engineering will need to be on the line to make it successful, and getting everyone to move to Mexico is never going to happen," he told me.
• So in May 2023, he decided to change the initial build location for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin, where his own workspace and that of his top engineers would be right next to the new high-speed, ultra-automated assembly line.

Throughout the summer of 2023, he spent hours each week working with his team to design each station on the line, finding ways to shave milliseconds off each step and process.

• As he had in the past with both Tesla cars and SpaceX rockets, he knew there was something just as important as the design of the project: the design of the manufacturing systems that would build the products at high volume.

 

[Singuy]

Apologies if previously posted https://www.axios.com/2023/09/08/walter-isaacson-elon-musk-book-excerpt

Whoa, material information from an autobiography?

 

[Vines]

Given that two PW2 are required to back up most large appliances like heat pumps, and Elon said only one PW3 would be needed for most homes, my guess would be about double (10 kW continuous, 14 kW peak).

I wonder if they will be true EDIT Online UPS as Elon had tweeted.

He usually uses good language but a UPS quick switchover would be quite new and awesome.

 

[bkp_duke]

My sales center in San Diego (Carlsbad) was also hopping yesterday. Lots of activity compared to the latest time I was there. Is that the same one you went to @bkp_duke ?

LoL, I was there, most of the day too. We probably walked right past each other.

 

[insaneoctane]

Regarding all these alternative vehicle production numbers...are we expecting Tesla is going to reduce their time to market on new product launches? Seems like it's actually elongated lately. CT, still not officially in production, was launched 4 years ago in November. Semi, launched in 2017, so going on 6 years. Roadster, well same as semi, only no clue to its actual production. Currently, Tesla hopes to enter 2024 with 1.8M-2M annual production rate, just 6 years out from 2030...Just stating that for Tesla to hit 20M vehicles by 2030, they'll have to make a significant improvement between announcement to production vs what's been displayed over the last few years.

 

[Zero CO2]

It tells me I have 96.x% in an F stock and the rest in a D stock. I guess schwab thinks all tech stocks are crappy.

it's ok I'll get rid of the shares of that D rated stock and go all F rated at some point if they don't upgrade the rating on TSLA before I do that.

i have 2 stocks in my Schwab (former TD account) AAPL =A, TSLA=F
Do they define their ratings somewhere ... and who the F asked them for a rating anyway this is a brokerage account ... do not need or want their advice concerning my stock picks

 

[unk45]

Last time I checked (for UK market) Tesla requires a minimum 50% loan, i.e. one cannot borrow from Tesla less than 50% of the price in a financed deal (the alternative being straight cash). I didn't look to see what the maximum Tesla will loan.

Is this an error that Tesla is making, or is there a consistent sweet spot around the world, around the auto sector for sustainable profitability ? If so what are the broad outlines of that sweet spot ?

Say ?
- 18m to 36m duration;
- 50% to 75% LTV;
- etc ?

The UK has several special circumstances, IMO primarily related to three factors:
1. Company car market importance, shared with quite a large number of other countries;
2. Number plate obsession that generates two giant months followed by a dearth of sales ;
3. Right hard drive that limits export destinations for used cars.

In tenors UK hire purchase tends to influence shorter tenors and less aggressive LTV, further exacerbating the above factors.

Etc: is the rub! Specifically used BEV RHD have a short and largely inconclusive history. The net effects make Tesla more conservative. IMHO

 

[2daMoon]

Another example of Tesla's (free) Advertising Team at work...

Tesla Model 3 roof gets its real-world elephant strength test and passes with flying colors

A Tesla Model 3 had its roof tested for strength after a wall collapse in China, and it passed with flying colors.

www.teslarati.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Regarding all these alternative vehicle production numbers...are we expecting Tesla is going to reduce their time to market on new product launches? Seems like it's actually elongated lately. CT, still not officially in production, was launched 4 years ago in November. Semi, launched in 2017, so going on 6 years. Roadster, well same as semi, only no clue to its actual production. Currently, Tesla hopes to enter 2024 with 1.8M-2M annual production rate, just 6 years out from 2030...Just stating that for Tesla to hit 20M vehicles by 2030, they'll have to make a significant improvement between announcement to production vs what's been displayed over the last few years.

4680. 4680. 4680.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Apologies if previously posted

"in May 2023, he decided to change the initial build location for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin"

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/08/walter-isaacson-elon-musk-book-excerpt

This is a fairly significant bit of news. Keep in mind once the production process is established they stated it should be a fairly straightforward cut and paste process to implement the same production line across all giga factories. When production starts I'll look forward to the ramp that should follow over the next several years

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Apologies if previously posted

"in May 2023, he decided to change the initial build location for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin"

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/08/walter-isaacson-elon-musk-book-excerpt

This is great to read. When I heard the rumor Giga Mexico is put on hold I was concerned it meant Autonomy wasn't projected to be ready by the time the plant was. This information changes that thought process.

I like the idea of perfecting the assembly in Austin, then installing the production lines in Mexico.

 

[cliff harris]

4680. 4680. 4680.

Not just that. Covid plus the global supply chain crunch were a double whammy to anyone trying to build anything new, anywhere out of anything.
Its not like the F150 suddenly appeared a week after announcement either!
I suspect the time from release to market will be getting much shorter (thankfully) in future. Except Teslabot. That thing will be in development at least another 5 years (but used internally perhaps)

 

[Mengy]

I hope those estimates are for the most optimistic scenarios because even 7X is pure fantasy. 2030 is basically 6 years away.

Uh, no, my estimate of $1400/share by 2030 is fairly conservative. My optimistic estimate is much, much higher.

 

[Artful Dodger]

In theory there shouldn't need to be a price drop on Megapack just because battery prices reduce.

In practice, Tesla has a 'pass-thru' agreement on lithium battery cell prices with its Megapack customers. This protects both parties, and is especially important when facing long-lead times for delivery (neither party is exposed to dramatic swings in cost vs. quote).

As an excercise, I'd suggest comparing Tesla's recent megapack price cuts to the CATL price custs of -19% for LFP cells in Aug 2023. I think customers will be quite pleased, and Tesla margin should be unaffected (except that they'll move move product now).

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

This is a fairly significant bit of news. Keep in mind once the production process is established they stated it should be a fairly straightforward cut and paste process to implement the same production line across all giga factories. When production starts I'll look forward to the ramp that should follow over the next several years

FWIW, I've followed Joe Tegtmeyer's videos since construction began at GigaTexas. The amount of stamping, paint, automation, and assembly line equipment going into the factory appears to have increased significantly this year.

Granted, this could just be Cybertruck, and/or Model Y lines, being installed/improved/expaned, but, in the back of my mind I've been curious as to whether there could be a next-gen unboxed line going into that massive building. There is room there to have all of the above (CT, MY line growth, and next-gen) under that massive roof covering multiple floors.

To be clear, this is barely even speculation on my part, but, what if an unboxed next-gen line were part of the work going on there?

Could that contribute to there being a relaxed GigaMexico attitude?

It would be momentous if a year from now something new started rolling out of the factory to everyone's surprise. But, I won't be holding my breath waiting for it.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In practice, Tesla has a 'pass-thru' agreement on lithium battery cell prices with its Megapack customers. This protects both parties, and is especially important when facing long-lead times for delivery (neither party is exposed to dramatic swings in cost vs. quote).

As an excercise, I'd suggest comparing Tesla's recent megapack price cuts to the CATL price custs of -19% for LFP cells in Aug 2023. I think customers will be quite pleased, and Tesla margin should be unaffected (except that they'll move move product now).

Cheers!

Where do you get that info from? Tesla's cell purchase price is presumably one of their most closely guarded commercial secrets - and I'd be surprised if they shared with Megapack purchasers.

At best they may be able to structure a similar outcome if the Tesla<>Cellmaker agreement and the Tesla<>Megapack Purchaser agreements have a pricing mechanism linked to an underlying commodity like lithium.

 

[dhanson865]

I hope those estimates are for the most optimistic scenarios because even 7X is pure fantasy. 2030 is basically 6 years away.

Heres 17x in 3 years selected, if the website had allowed a custom time period I could have selected 17x in 2 years.

But you think somehow that 7x is "pure fantasy" in 6 years.