Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Breaking News!

Isaacson leaks that the next gen Teslas will have Cyber styling (both $25k car and Robotaxi)!

Scoop: Inside Tesla's decision to build a $25,000 "global car" — Axios

Elon Musk was so obsessed with robotaxis that he repeatedly vetoed his own plan to build a $25,000 electric car in favor of them — until skeptical Tesla executives persuaded him to hedge his bet, Musk biographer Walter Isaacson tells Axios.

apple.news

The article alludes to the “fact” a $35,000 model 3 was promised in 2017 and has still not materialized. $35,000 in 2017 dollars is $43,750 today.

Today’s model 3 starts at $42,000 and delivers more range than promised for the $35k car.

Tesla might have been late but they have over delivered on the $35k car.

 

[MP3Mike]

What about that sentence implies anything about billing and/or plug-and-charge?

They mention installing a minimum of 6 per site, which is how many Tesla requires to be installed in order to add them to their commercial charging plan. At which point the host can set the price per kWh, which Tesla will bill and pass on to the host. (And then charge a one cent per kWh fee, billed once per year.)

Tesla vehicles are authorized just like Superchargers, just plug in and charge. Non-Tesla vehicles have to start charging via the app.

 

[scaesare]

They mention installing a minimum of 6 per site, which is how many Tesla requires to be installed in order to add them to their commercial charging plan. At which point the host can set the price per kWh, which Tesla will bill and pass on to the host. (And then charge a one cent per kWh fee, billed once per year.)

Tesla vehicles are authorized just like Superchargers, just plug in and charge. Non-Tesla vehicles have to start charging via the app.

Ah ok, didn't realize 6 was the magic number in order for a site to qualify for their plan.

Cool, thanks.

 

[ggies07]

The article alludes to the “fact” a $35,000 model 3 was promised in 2017 and has still not materialized. $35,000 in 2017 dollars is $43,750 today.

Today’s model 3 starts at $42,000 and delivers more range than promised for the $35k car.

Tesla might have been late but they have over delivered on the $35k car.

Don't do that. People have posted this for years now. Doesn't matter - what matters is affordability and the price is still not $35k or lower for a brand new car. Elon recently said prices need to come down...let's not play with the numbers.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Eh, my 2030 price target for TSLA is even lower than that, I have ~$1400 per share!

Of course, I'm using 16 million production per year rather than Tesla's goal of 20 million. I'm also not including anything for Robotaxi's nor Optimus in that estimate, nor insurance or even charging revenues, my estimate is purely cars + energy, so there is a TON of room for upside in mine.

I hope those estimates are for the most optimistic scenarios because even 7X is pure fantasy. 2030 is basically 6 years away.

 

[kbM3]

Not so sure. The wording is somewhat ambiguous. “Both had a Futuristic design like the Tesla cybertruck” does not necessarily mean cyber styling. They could look futuristic and not be cyber styled.

Although I agree technically it could just mean it’s futuristic, LIKE Cybertruck strongly implies cyber styling

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Breaking News!

Isaacson leaks that the next gen Teslas will have Cyber styling (both $25k car and Robotaxi)!

Scoop: Inside Tesla's decision to build a $25,000 "global car" — Axios

Elon Musk was so obsessed with robotaxis that he repeatedly vetoed his own plan to build a $25,000 electric car in favor of them — until skeptical Tesla executives persuaded him to hedge his bet, Musk biographer Walter Isaacson tells Axios.

apple.news

This reinforce my opinion that car owners will not be able to participate in the robotaxi network.

I think it was very smart of Elon's executive team to us "the mission" to convince Elon to do both models. That's the way to talk and negotiate with Elon.

I also wonder how Tesla is doing on Inductive Charging because I don't see how a fleet could operate without this ability.

 

[willow_hiller]

Musk also says PW3 is optimized for "high power". I wander what the power delivery capability of this model w/ built-in inverter is, as compared to previous models.

Given that two PW2 are required to back up most large appliances like heat pumps, and Elon said only one PW3 would be needed for most homes, my guess would be about double (10 kW continuous, 14 kW peak).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Here are the existing charger statistics for comparison so as to put the Hilton deal in perspective. It is quite material imho.

View attachment 971910

View attachment 971908

No. You are confusing Tesla Destination chargers (which is what the Hilton deal is) with Superchargers. The Hilton deal is worth 20,000 x $500 = $10M in hardware revenue. Not significant.

 

[kbM3]

The article alludes to the “fact” a $35,000 model 3 was promised in 2017 and has still not materialized. $35,000 in 2017 dollars is $43,750 today.

Today’s model 3 starts at $42,000 and delivers more range than promised for the $35k car.

Tesla might have been late but they have over delivered on the $35k car.

Not only that. But selling the original planned volume of Model 3 at even higher prices than they revealed at the unveiling, is actually a much larger success

So they’re spinning a complete positive (from the company’s perspective) as a negative.

 

[mongo]

Musk also says PW3 is optimized for "high power". I wander what the power delivery capability of this model w/ built-in inverter is, as compared to previous models.

It uses a 60 Amp breaker, whereas Powerwall+ used a 50 Amp breaker (40A contiuous off grid), so 'more'.
How much battery only supplies is a big TBD. If solar inverter is same size, it could be at least an additional 2.4kW of battery?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Breaking News!

Isaacson leaks that the next gen Teslas will have Cyber styling (both $25k car and Robotaxi)!

Scoop: Inside Tesla's decision to build a $25,000 "global car" — Axios

Elon Musk was so obsessed with robotaxis that he repeatedly vetoed his own plan to build a $25,000 electric car in favor of them — until skeptical Tesla executives persuaded him to hedge his bet, Musk biographer Walter Isaacson tells Axios.

apple.news

Oh God. Let’s not go down this rabbit hole. The article quote “Both had a futuristic design like the Tesla Cybertruck — an angular, stainless steel pickup truck that had yet to debut.” can easily be interpreted to mean that the $25K will have a futuristic design but NOT necessarily an angular look. Anything’s possible though.

 

[Usain]

If those Tesla L2 chargers for the Hilton deal are not free, (like typical L2 chargers that you can find at some hotels)
then I wonder if there will be a maximum charging duration and an extra charge if you stay connected while not charging
(because you overpassed the maximum charging duration or because you reached the maximum charging value and the car is not charging)?

Since cars at Hotels like Hilton are in general parked by valet attendants,
would those valet attendants be responsible for disconnecting EVs and connecting another EV thereafter?

And if so, how those valet attendants wpould informed about the charging status of each EV?

I think a lot of these chargers will be at properties such as Hampton Inn, where there is no valet. These are road trippers who get to the hotel late and need to charge over night.

For those who do have a valet, it's easy enough to just look at the car to see when it is done. Valets do this all the time at hotels that offer charging.

BTW, there have been lots of articles on this, but they are all just quoting the announcement at the Hilton web site. If you are really interested in the publicly known details then this is probably the best source:

Hilton to Install Up to 20,000 Tesla Universal Wall Connectors at 2,000 Hotels | Hilton News

The Hilton and Tesla agreement is creating the largest overnight Electronic Vehicle charging network within the hospitality industry.

stories.hilton.com

My source at a Hilton franchisee didn't know anything more than the public announcement but he is having a meeting with Hilton corporate next week. If he is able to find out more details about how this will work then I will share it here.

I've talked with him in the past about how hotels should handle overnight charging. I think you should be able to reserve access to a charger just like you reserve a certain room type or a baby crib. I think a lot of people would gladly pay an extra $10-$15 per night to have guaranteed access to overnight charging.

 

[Usain]

I find this very reassuring. I do think that despite his obvious genius, elon can sometimes have blind spots, and history has shown his insane optimism regarding robotaxi timelines is the biggest of all.
The fact that top talent at Tesla actually CAN win him over and rein him in occasionally is good news. Its not like they have watered down the companies crazy growth plans or drive for progress.
I think Elon also underestimates both the bureaucratic struggle and the 'hearts and minds' struggle that even a perfect FSD represents. Even if V12.1 came out on monday, and had zero interventions and zero accidents in all weathers and all countries, you are talking at least 5 years for governments around the world to accept and allow it, and at least the same amount of time until joe public feels confident and safe in a driverless car.
5 years is a long time in Tesla years, and they absolutely definitely need the $25,000 mass market car rolling off production lines before then. Plus, how big a deal would it be to just remove the steering wheel and pedals in future anyway?

I don't think it would take that long. There is tremendous economic benefit to a "perfect FSD". No nation wants to be left behind.

 

[Tony73]

Don't do that. People have posted this for years now. Doesn't matter - what matters is affordability and the price is still not $35k or lower for a brand new car. Elon recently said prices need to come down...let's not play with the numbers.

Do what ? I never claimed today’s model 3 is the be-all and end-all of affordability. It obviously isn’t. Prices still need to come down hence the model 2.
I only stated that adjusted for inflation, it is less expensive than $35k and delivers more range. That is a FACT.

Inflation is a real thing. A 2017 BMW 3 series started at $35k. Today the same car is $44k. Adjusting for inflation is not playing with numbers.

 

[dhanson865]

Musk also says PW3 is optimized for "high power". I wander what the power delivery capability of this model w/ built-in inverter is, as compared to previous models.

Looks like 11.5 KW

 

[mongo]

Looks like 11.5 KW

Excellent. 11.5kW = 48A@240V = 80% derated 60 Amp breaker.

 

[scaesare]

Looks like 11.5 KW

Wow, that's like 50% greater... impressive.

 

[mongo]

Wow, that's like 50% greater... impressive.

PW2+ would output 9.6kW (40A, max continuous for a 50A breaker) combined solar+battery when off grid. Look like PW3 does the full output on-grid also, may have been inverter power quality limitation (PW2+ can do 22kW for 10 seconds to start AirCon compressors)

 

[Drumheller]

There was a $35,000 Model 3 available in the past, early 2019 if I recall correctly. It was short-lived, like the Model S 40. The "promise" of a $35,000 Model 3 was already kept.