Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Yeah, but what is going on in Malta and Croatia? Everyone knows they are the canary in the coal mine for the European BEV market!

Vatican City, Andorra, Liechtenstein, Malta, Monaco, San Marino. Key countries for TslaQ

 

[T@oo]

Vatican City, Andorra, Liechtenstein, Malta, Monaco, San Marino. Key countries for TslaQ

Don't forget Genovia.

 

[Skryll]

We are now looking at:

• Price rises, instead of cuts
• The end of interest rate rises

These two are opposites really - energy price rises and vehicle price rises means inflation rises and cut of interest rate less likely

 

[2daMoon]

We are now looking at:

• Cybertruck delivery event imminent
• FSD maybe comes to China and the UK
• FSD12 soon
• Price rises, instead of cuts
• The end of interest rate rises
• Good china numbers, smooth highland ramp.

This could be the quiet before the storm

The economic aspect will hopefully be more of a transitional phase spread over a longer time period. i.e.: The interest rate becoming static could hold steady for a while before any reduction of rates. Even a throttling back on the pace of rate rises will make borrowing less of a crap shoot and the market may become more dynamic in response. An immediate swing the other way seems unlikely.

As for Tesla pricing, this should continue to vary, up and down, based upon whatever metric they have been using to match production pace with delivery pace.

It does seem like the future is quite a bit brighter than it was a year ago and the quiet before the storm is an apt description for the upbeat undercurrent displacing the malaise during the time we've spent in the recovery room this year.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I'm thinking the efficiency will probably be in the 350-400 Wh/mile range.

Here's my train if considerations:

1) It seems Tesla's target range for the bulk of US sales is the 300-350 mile ballpark. It probably makes sense for the first Cybertrucks to be in that range as well...and it's also consistent with the "300+ miles" listed for the dual motor at the original reveal.

2) The Model X has a roughly 100 kWh battery, and the rated range runs from 311 miles (Plaid, 22") up to 348 miles for a Long Range. This puts the X rated efficiency between 287 and 321 Wh/mile.

3) The Cybertruck is physically larger, heavier, and has a less aerodynamic shape than the X, and almost certainly has less efficient tires. So, the Cybertruck should have a higher Wh/mile rating.

4) Putting all that together, if the initial Cybertruck version indeed has a 122 kWh battery, and the rated range is in that common Tesla 300-350 mile ballpark, then we'd be looking at an efficiency of about 350-400 Wh/mile.

5) 350-400 Wh/mile is about 20-25% higher than the X, which would be pretty good considering the size, weight, shape, and tires on the Cybertruck. For particularly knobby off-road tires, I might even expect greater than 400 Wh/mile.

6) I believe the Rivian and Lightning ratings are mostly a bit above 400 Wh/mile, and the ghastly Hummer EV is considerably higher.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see the first mod that many CT buyers do us to put a set of highly efficient pavement tires on the CT. Off road holds no interest for us for example. But trailer towing range does. I wonder how much more range a good set of EV tires would produce?
(No idea really).

Jmho.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm a bit chart challenged... If I change the time-frame or frequency, then the SMA and Bollinger Bands also change. And if so, what's the standard for monitoring this? Maybe take it off line as it could be a really dumb question. Something tells me a slight sell-off is about to happen... filling the gap to 200 day. Then again who knows with CT coming soon... and if I'm using the correct parameters.

This boils down to dodger posting gap fills every week or so, but I can't seem to reproduce them. Maybe it's a Canadian thing.

 

[MartinAustin]

OK, erm, what's going on

nvm - just the usual "shooting star" start to the day... I won't kick it out of bed

Not bad considering NASDAQ is down. The mainstream media can't pin any of the "Elon stuff" on TSLA today... so it won't be reported. if the stock had been down it would be because of "Elon stuff"

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm a bit chart challenged... If I change the time-frame or frequency, then the SMA and Bollinger Bands also change. And if so, what's the standard for monitoring this? Maybe take it off line as it could be a really dumb question. Something tells me a slight sell-off is about to happen... filling the gap to 200 day. Then again who knows with CT coming soon... and if I'm using the correct parameters.

This boils down to dodger posting gap fills every week or so, but I can't seem to reproduce them. Maybe it's a Canadian thing.

View attachment 992596

My how it can change so quickly... No more gap???

 

[betstarship]

Happy Holidays!!!

 

[Buckminster]

Somebody needs to send Troy a calculator...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1726859394166779997

 

[SOULPEDL]

Somebody needs to send Troy a calculator...

View attachment 992607

https://twitter.com/x/status/1726859394166779997

Capacity and output are different. Above capacity would be all out, no constraints, only Preventative Maintenance. This is not reality for any factory.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Capacity and output are different. Above capacity would be all out, no constraints, only Preventative Maintenance. This is not reality for any factory.

Gordo: "They built gigafactories but not of them are have ever produced their stated capacity...demand is falling off a cliff and we stand firm on our $24 price target"

 

[elasalle]

Somebody needs to send Troy a calculator...

View attachment 992607

https://twitter.com/x/status/1726859394166779997

But what about Consumption capactity? Tesla is going to try to match Production to Consumption.
Doesn't make sense to make more cars if price-cuts are being used to increase consumption ..
If rates don't come down 2-2.1M is very likely scenario ... IMHO .. which is something to look out for post 4Q for FUN and SP manipulation

I wish we could do like 10K Semi's next year though ...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Somebody knows something and Nobody say anything!!!

 

[Max Plaid]

Don't forget Genovia.

I'm also missing Vulgaria from the list, it's a sham!

 

[SOULPEDL]

In the absence of a reason for the pop, I'm going to conclude someone just had some serious FOMO.
This is in itself bullish. Was it ARK, or Buffett, or maybe more shorts exiting? And can't seem to load Max Pain data.

 

[elasalle]

In the absence of a reason for the pop, I'm going to conclude someone just had some serious FOMO.
This is in itself bullish. Was it ARK, or Buffett, or maybe more shorts exiting? And can't seem to load Max Pain data.

16K China numbers not enough of a reason for a pop ...?

With NVDA reporting today ...tomorrows gonna be interesting ...

 

[2daMoon]

In the absence of a reason for the pop, I'm going to conclude someone just had some serious FOMO.
This is in itself bullish. Was it ARK, or Buffett, or maybe more shorts exiting? And can't seem to load Max Pain data.

That's not a pop...​

 

[growler23]

We are now looking at:

• Cybertruck delivery event imminent
• FSD maybe comes to China and the UK
• FSD12 soon
• Price rises, instead of cuts
• The end of interest rate rises
• Good china numbers, smooth highland ramp.

This could be the quiet before the storm

I'm with you on this for a lot of reasons. As we approach the end of the year, I'm thinking of the quote from the Tesla sales guy (?) which I can't now find from this forum, which presaged the price drops ... paraphrased "This is the year we kill ICE". Most of you remember it, I bet. We all cheered, but now it's happening.
Tesla's massive price drops shook the EV world. But the EV world is connected to the ICE world. The ICE world just had its legs pulled out from under it with Teslas in the $30-$40k (US) sticker price range, with people having only the foggiest idea that they get cheaper per mile once you have them. The USA has lagged the EV transition and we are being pushed into it by fearsome unbridled capitalist forces now nipping at our heels. Does anyone think the Model Y _won't_ be the best selling car globally in 2023?

GM, banking on ICE for the near future and "dozens of new EV models" hopium (and bad plannium), most agree, is heading for disaster. Their great move of buying the "gigacasting experts" from under Tesla, on inspection, shows they acquired a technology that makes what Tesla considers prototype-scale (in terms of number of cars per year), but GM will have to use as their actual production scale, as much as admitting they will not be a player with any real volume.
Honda cancels plan for cheap electric vehicles, ending collaboration with GM
Ford, trying to manage to be both a dealer-less EV provider and dealer-relying ICE/EV provider has fallen on its face with the F150 Lightning now, and delayed future investments. They will hide in expensive ICE trucks for a time, but that ICEberg is melting fast. Perhaps, as often speculated, they will spin off the Model E business, but it's tough to do that when they are under water and sinking.
Ford to postpone ~$12 billion in EV investment
Volkswagen, living on marketing and German-engineering pride, is now looking to cut tens of thousands of jobs, and have delayed investments needed to stay competitive, having successfully shut up any voices telling them change was needed.
Chaos At Volkswagen's Cariad Division May Lead To Delays & Job Cuts - CleanTechnica
Toyota is desperately trying to turn the ship, grabbing up dance partners as likely to eat them as help them.
Here’s How BYD Rocked Toyota’s Manufacturing World
Hyundai and Kia have started running this new race, and they will likely be fine.
Anyone who had the foresight to be seriously invested in EV technology at this point has a future. I call 2023 as the year that, by New Year's Eve, if you were only doing high-school-science-project level EV's: (here's looking at you, Ford) it's too late. You won't survive*.

VERY MUCH looking forward to 2024.
Cheers!
--Growler out

* without a bailout anyway

 

[Krugerrand]

In the absence of a reason for the pop, I'm going to conclude someone just had some serious FOMO.
This is in itself bullish. Was it ARK, or Buffett, or maybe more shorts exiting? And can't seem to load Max Pain data.

Ok, you made me look.



It’s a pretty line but the actual difference between start and now isn’t all that much. I suspect it’s the result of yesterday’s shenanigans simply catching up to the shenaniganers.