Buckminster
Well-Known Member
With AAPL and many others at ATHs I am expecting the great rotation into TSLA anytime now…
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Are you aware they don't fit?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... yeah, sourced from a Fredtrek article. People should know better already, but lack critical thinking skills (or short-term memory)
He is frequently in Asia (family ties) and sees with his own eyes how the Chinese impact the car market there.
jeewee3000
Active Member
To add to this (great) post, since Belgian tax rules indeed require fully electric vehicle purchases for greatest deductability, I see many peers/friends/family members looking at the BEV market for the first time.
I get asked about my model Y a lot more, for example. Most know Elon is CEO of Tesla but they know little more.
Regarding choice of brand: some are indeed pro Tesla because of the strong brand name (supercharger network + you see them everywhere) but others are anti-Tesla because "everybody has them". Those go for Mercedes, VW, Skoda, Kia, Ford, etc but some are already disappointed with their car.
A collegue bought a Mercedes EQC, 80kwh battery, €84.000 (price after a "discount"), range similar to my 60kwh RWD Model Y. The Mercedes is 2 years old but has had two software failures in that time, for which the car had to be taken in for service.
This owner then hears from me "no complaints so far, great range, great supercharger network" (he pays x EUR / month just to be able to access certain charging networks in the EU).
My guess is many of those that don't buy Tesla for their first EV will switch to Tesla for their second EV after they have trouble with their first purchase and hear all the benefits of owning a Tesla.
That's why the competitive pricing of Tesla cars makes them even more desirable. (Another anecdote: I know somebody that finds Tesla cars ugly, but still bought Model Y as a company car since you get so much more range for your buck compared to other brands she test drove).
TL;DR: we're fine, fellow bulls.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Exactly. Imagine driving around in an EV and having to rely on something else than the supercharging network.
I've done that since 2012. FWIW my Model S Plaid has used Superchargers only twice since September 2021. Always stay at hotels with free charing and the odd free charge in shopping center etc, but the vast majority is charging at home.
Best Western To Add Tesla Chargers at Hotels Across North America
Best Western Hotels is joining forces with Tesla to introduce electric vehicle (EV) charging stations at select hotels throughout North America, with plans for international expansion starting in 2024. The partnership involves the deployment of […]driveteslacanada.ca
It's soon going to be super easy to rent an EV and not even have to think about charging. There's nothing better than charging while you sleep.
Somehow this issue keeps at high attention even though long time BEV users almost never have problems unless they're trying to replicate an ICE behavior. It's always possible to create problems.
But the message says nothing about Model Y losing credits next year. It's just saying take delivery this year for full credit, not that Model Y will be losing credits next year. I can find nothing from Tesla that explicitly says the Y is losing credits. When I go to Tesla's Model Y order page I get this message:
"All new Model Y vehicles currently qualify for a federal tax credit for eligible buyers. $7,500 tax credit will reduce to $3,750 for Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive and Model 3 Long Range on Jan 1, 2024. Take delivery by Dec 31 for full tax credit."
Nothing here is being said about Model Y losing credits. I think people are jumping to conclusions/making assumptions.
Disagree because the raw accidents are not comparable nor are they adjusted for rates. Actuaries would laugh about this. Were this true the actuaries would be rather frightened. There's no evidence they are...at all.
It is not a leap because Tesla says if you pay your $250 for a Cybertruck AWD or Beast today then you can expect delivery in 2024. This is Tesla's best estimate.
It is a leap to assume that Tesla is lying.
Tesla doesn't lie and Elon doesn't sandbag. They give us their best estimates. I don't understand why so many TSLA bulls get confused about that.
When considering the speed of new product market entry, the quality systems of modern companies will require a rollout plan.
The speed of this rollout has gating factors. There can be some early deliveries but they will be limited.
The interesting thing about new tech is that repairs may require skills and to some extent familiarity that is not in place.
Most automotive technicians may have familiarity with “by wire” concepts related to fuel injection tech. I suspect drive by wire is novel in some ways. Training is slightly more involved since an experience base is not present in the existing labor pool.
One approach is to introduce new tech geographically so that both training and skill experience is accelerated where most easily supported.
Training or really pretraining is best when immediately put to use. If you pretrain and then don’t use those skills for months then effectiveness may not be optimal. As an experience base is built, that base and learning can support an accelerating rollout.
The benefits of a measured geographical rollout for products with a high novel content works harmoniously with manufacturing as well as the supply chain in early months where the iterative learning rate is high.
The speed of this rollout has gating factors. There can be some early deliveries but they will be limited.
The interesting thing about new tech is that repairs may require skills and to some extent familiarity that is not in place.
Most automotive technicians may have familiarity with “by wire” concepts related to fuel injection tech. I suspect drive by wire is novel in some ways. Training is slightly more involved since an experience base is not present in the existing labor pool.
One approach is to introduce new tech geographically so that both training and skill experience is accelerated where most easily supported.
Training or really pretraining is best when immediately put to use. If you pretrain and then don’t use those skills for months then effectiveness may not be optimal. As an experience base is built, that base and learning can support an accelerating rollout.
The benefits of a measured geographical rollout for products with a high novel content works harmoniously with manufacturing as well as the supply chain in early months where the iterative learning rate is high.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition
By the Artful Dodger (Dec 2023)Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future.
Day 01: A partridge in a pear tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: Two turtle doves | S/X fraternal twins go mainstream
Now with proof that electric cars could be a commercial success, Tesla moved forward with building a luxury electric full-sized sedan, the Model S:- The Model S project, codename "WhiteStar", began before Roadster production ended, during the dark days of the Great Financial Crisis (when Tesla Motors Inc. nearly succumbed)
- Franz von Holzhausen joins Tesla (2008)
- Franz came up through the Auto Industry, previously working at VW, GM and Mazda
- designed all Tesla cars, starting with the multi-award-winning Model S
- Tesla Model S Wins MotorTrend Car of the Year | WIRED (2012)
- Tesla Model S went on to be named Motortrends "Car of the Century" (Model S named best among all "Car of the Year" winners named since Motortrend 1st awarded the honor in 1949)
- Tesla Model S Beats Chevy, Toyota, and Cadillac for Ultimate Car of the Year Honors (2019)
- Lesson 1: good people matter more than anything else
- Lesson 2: invest in the future during the hard times (even when it hurts)
- now with the proven Model S "skateboard" platform, it was time to expand the TAM
- Elon Musk says the Tesla Model X is the 'Faberge egg of cars' - CNBC (2019)
- Specifying overly-complicated 'Falcon Wing' doors delayed Model X by over a year
- Lesson 3: design for manufacturing ('if you can't build it, they won't come')
- Lesson 4: depending on outside suppliers for critical components is a risky game
By March 2018, TSLA Market Cap had reached the $60B level, and was now as large as some of the companies which supported it in the dark days of Christmas 2008. What was to come over the next 3 years will be the subject of folk tales, Hollywood movies, and some really, really skewed media reporting... (play the 'man', not the 'ball').
Tomorrow's Topic:
Day 03: Three French hens | Model 3 bets the company
Yes, my bad. Posted before my morning coffee!
If this isn't a sarcastic post it's sad level of delusion.
Try to break it down logically. Do you think 99% of pre-orders cancelled?
You think the demand for the CT is really under 125k people?
Because you said Elon doesn't sandbag.
Or...the way most people read it, delivery of the Cyberbeast and AWD start in 2024.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Historically major revs have made performance worse initially. Add to that Elon saying it'll be worse for at least 6 months on HW4 vs HW3 and all new cars are 4, and I don't see any way this contributes significantly to margins or earnings in 2024 (plus V12 is, like 11 and 10 before it, Teslas best guess on what'll finally get them past L2- they might be wrong- they have been every previous time. They might be right too, but it won't be immediately obvious.)
Which Elon explicitly said will not contribute meaningfully to Tesla financials in 2024.
Showing a prototype might well give a stock bump- but it'll be drown by the slew of articles FUDing around "unveil promises vs delivery reality" citing the CT especially.
Ideally, yes... though I think how soon matters... If it's not relatively early in 2024 then, assuming time from groundbreaking to ramp is say in between shanghai and austin, we're looking at 2026 before it's contributing meaningfully to EPS.
I think there's a roughly 0% chance anyone will be able to buy one in 2024 from Tesla. You might see them being tested in Tesla factories though but I'd expect at least one or two more major revisions (at least one based on the feedback from internal factory testing over months of time) before considering any external sales. And that's assuming they get all the SW in as good a shape as the HW in that time.
I know many folks in the thread aren't big Troy fans-- but he's got 2024 deliveries around 2-2.1M. His average error rate on deliveries is only 2.5%. YoY growth is going to be the smallest we've seen in many years on vehicles-- and much as we know Tesla is not just a car company that's still where most of the revenue is.
Tesla energy will help some- and this year should help set up a lot of FUTURE stuff-- but barring some rabbit out of hat stuff I don't see much in 2024 that looks awesome for share price growth in 2024
Some might call that a buying opportunity.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
The statement is in regard to those with reservations, not those who have placed orders. You are comparing an order estimate to a statement found on a reservation page. Apples/Oranges.
When Tesla tells someone ordering a vehicle that their delivery will be between December and March, you can count on it.
When they tell reservation holders that deliveries will begin in 2014, they mean that once a reservation is converted to an order those deliveries will be provided a tighter date range, just as they have always done with orders for every model they sell.
For example, early reservation holders who were offered and accepted to place a CT Foundation ORDER are being given a tighter date range for delivery of their order.
All that "deliveries begin in 2014" means is that once orders are placed (from the queue of existing reservations) those orders will begin delivery in 2024. This is a fact, unambiguous, and in no way misleading.
"Deliveries in 2024" doesn't say in any way, shape, or form that someone placing a reservation now can expect delivery in 2024.
Tesla is not lying when they say this. They aren't telling anyone placing a reservation today to expect to be converted to an order and have their delivery be sometime in 2014.
Those whose current reservations are converted to orders can expect them to be delivered in 2024.
Those orders will come from the beginning of the reservation queue and will be provided a delivery date in 2024.
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Are others seeing this?
There is still so much ignorance when it comes to Tesla. Two people I know, but barely interact with, reached out to me separately yesterday and this morning, specifically to make sure I’d heard about my car being recalled. One even owns a Tesla!
Presumably they were concerned with my safety, lest I accidentally drive the recalled vehicle and get into a terrible accident. Better take it in to the “dealer” right away and get it fixed!
I had to explain this was an OTA update, essentially a government mandated addition of more nags to make the vehicle ‘safer’, when in fact it will just make it more annoying to drive.
So much education still to be done for the general public.
There is still so much ignorance when it comes to Tesla. Two people I know, but barely interact with, reached out to me separately yesterday and this morning, specifically to make sure I’d heard about my car being recalled. One even owns a Tesla!
Presumably they were concerned with my safety, lest I accidentally drive the recalled vehicle and get into a terrible accident. Better take it in to the “dealer” right away and get it fixed!
I had to explain this was an OTA update, essentially a government mandated addition of more nags to make the vehicle ‘safer’, when in fact it will just make it more annoying to drive.
So much education still to be done for the general public.
100% agree that it would be a leap, an impossible one at that, for anyone "to assume that all pre-orders plus people who are just submitting a reservation today will receive their CT in 2024".
Completely disagree that it would be a leap for one "to assume that all
It's not that Tesla will somehow deliver the entire backlog next year; it's the reservation conversion to order rate that is reasonable to make different assumptions about, based in no small part on the exact words on Tesla.com.
Likely a very, very small few will of the reservations will be cancelled. There is very little benefit to cancelling. More likely, most will simply sit in limbo, with the reservation holder only taking delivery of, say, one of their three 'one-of-each-kind' reservations, or delaying their purchase of any of their reservations to wait for original pricing to be honored, or any number of other reasons.
It is quite possible that demand for the two CT models being offered for delivery in 2024, at current prices, among those ready, willing, and able to pay those current prices and take delivery in the USA, will be under 125k in 2024.
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