Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

OK, a little TA can't hurt... this growth looks like a bullseye, pun intended.

Is there such a thing as a slow squeeze?

 

[jerry33]

Release note for the NHTSA update. No change to where it can be activated.

We need to find out how that jives with GGR's experience of five strikes and you're permanently out.

 

[ggies07]

CBS Mornings, another Tesla hit piece, never mentioned once that the "recall" is actually an OTA update, plus an interview with a guy who spoke with Elon 6 years ago and stated that Elon hung up on him! Where do they get these people,?

Same for NBC...clip on TikTok so I commented the hell out of it. I also have people Facebook PMing me....media on all forms is F***ing this up!

 

[CDB_]

So anyway, $TSLA is green today! That's good, right?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Same for NBC...clip on TikTok so I commented the hell out of it. I also have people Facebook PMing me....media on all forms is F***ing this up!

It's OK - it didn't work. The stock is still rising.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Mary still leading..

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1735320939900866854?s=20

"Lot of OEM Competition...."

 

[scaesare]

Or, it tries picking up objects using increasing pressure until they no long slip out of its grasp. That plus grabbing below the widest point goes a long way toward dealing with unknown items.

We are able to judge if we are likely to have an object slip out of our grasp, and dynamically adjust pressure. We don't have to let an object slip, increase, and try again... (well most of the time anyway)...

I wonder what Optimus' ultimate capability in this regard may be...

 

[mongo]

We need to find out how that jives with GGR's experience of five strikes and you're permanently out.

Just for you

1. Basic Autopilot Suspension — For max safety and accountability, use of Autopilot features will be suspended if improper usage is detected. Improper usage is when you or another driver receive 5 forced Autopilot disengagements. A disengagement is when the Autopilot system disengages for the rest of the trip after the driver receives several audio and visual warnings for inattentiveness. Driver initiated disengagements do not count as improper usage and are expected from the driver. Keeps hands on the wheel and remain attentive at all times. use of any hand held devices while using Autopilot is not allowed.
Autopilot features can only be removed by this suspension method and they will be unavailable for approximately one week.

 

[scaesare]

Elon has said that Tesla doesn't do pure research. That is, any kind of research is expected to be delivered in a product. So all research is done with an eye toward profitability. This is a different mindset from companies that do a lot of research and then look to see if any of them can be productized.

I'm not sure how much secret research is really going on at Tesla. To take Optimus as an example, it sounds to me like Elon talked it over with some people and came up with initial specs for what it should be. But it sounds like engineers didn't take out their screwdrives and start working on a prototype until shortly before the announcement on AI day. (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Are there some big secret projects that Tesla is doing actual research on? That's very hard to say. But I kind of doubt that there is anything going on now that we won't hear about for several years. Tesla tends to have shorter time frames between idea and announcement.

The cool thing is that Tesla is pushing the envelope on so many fronts so fast, their "practical" research is exploring new frontiers as fast, or faster, than many other company's "pure" R&D departments...

 

[Artful Dodger]

We need to find out how that jives with GGR's experience of five strikes and you're permanently out.

I wonder how hard the NHTSA investigated Consumer Reports for publishing that "How to Defeat Tesla Safety Checks for Driver Attentiveness". Yeah, an actual how-to demo, including climbing out of the driver's seat in a moving vehicle. Was that investigated?

 

[scaesare]

Mary still leading..

https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1735320939900866854?s=20

"Lot of OEM Competition...."

This assumed typo is the more accurate take lol:

I think no there's a lot of OEM competition to Tesla.

 

[GOVA]

CT innards online

Reported by Green

 

[Artful Dodger]

green on X: "For those of you that have been curious about some internals" /X | (Dec 13, 2023)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1735052441916240033

 

[unk45]

Agreed that the majority of charging is done at home, but you make it sound as if all trips are drive to one hotel, spend one or more nights, and then drive home. This is true for Japanese Love Hotels, but many trips consist of several days and several hotels with charging at Superchargers between. Having done many trips in ICE vehicles over the years before Tesla, the only time I noticed a real difference was during the first couple of years when Superchargers were make of unobtainium.

You're clear about what you imagine. reality differs. In 2015 I drove from Miami to Vancouver, BC and back in my P85D. Superchargers were not an option for most stops. Then, and on trips from Milan to Dubrovnik and return through some other countries too I used my traditional procedures. I charged every night at hotels (some strange connections in 2015) and never failed to have a charge. I still have the bagful fo connectors. Welding shops were invariably good for a faster charge during the day.

Now, with increased range, it's not usual to need creative solutions to charge during the day. It does happen, but there are pretty good solutions in my experience. FWIW, I have never had a successful Electrify America charge, although I've tried. Anyway, if one can survive a hotel meal, nearly all hotels allow charging during a meal stop.

Still, the huge selling point for Tesla and NACS where applicable is that one need know only where the Superchargers are. Then it's little more than an ICE stop. Factually most of us know that the Superchargers are a profitable way to remove objections to BEV. Long road trips remain a relatively small part of nearly everyone's life, but the objections are strong. The hauling/towing pickup story is perfectly analogous, isn't it? Cybertruck is well suited to remove objections.

 

[Knightshade]

I generally agree, but I think your last paragraph is a bit pessimistic. Even assuming just 2.2m car deliveries

That's 10% above Troys most likely estimate FWIW, he suggests even 2.1 would be very optimistic.

, we will also have this in 2024:

• Updates to the bot

• 
  
  I'm not aware of any previous internal-only updates moving the stock though, so why would another one?
  
  

  [*]V12 FSD rollout

  
  I'm not aware of V10 or V11, both of which we were promised were fire, and it, and The One True Avoiding Local Maximum Approach, moving the stock either.
  
  
  

  [*]China FSD, possibly Europe too.

  
  AFAIK Europe is 0.00% chance due to the current heavy restrictions and the timeframes for getting around them.
  
  China might release- but when it's still L2, as I expect it will be all of 2024, I don't see a likely take rate that is particularly material to margins.
  
  
  

  [*]Maybe start of real semi production

  
  AFAIK they've not even broken ground on the 'real' factor for this?
  
  They only began posting job listings for the people to design the factory in late October 2023 so I don't expect much hitting the books in 2024 here either
  
  

  Tesla goes on hiring spree to finally bring Tesla Semi to volume production

  Tesla has started to hire for a lot of positions meant to deploy a volume production line for the Tesla...

  electrek.co
  
  
  

  [*]Possible Model 2 reveal

  
  Prototype? Certainly possible. I already kinda mentioned that though it'll get hit with all the "gap between intro and release is big" stories citing the CT differences (and likely cursory discussion of the 35k model 3 too).
  
  

  [*]Tesla energy scaling up

  
  That was the only one I agreed with already--- but it's not going to be large enough to move EPS enough to show substantial growth in 2024.
  
  And that's the fundamental problem right now with supporting a much higher share price.
  
  If future earnings don't seem to be going to move much next year the stock price isn't likely to either.
  
  Look back at the EPS estimates in this very thread for 2023 and 2024 back when the SP was surging north of $400 (split adjusted)... they're HILARIOUSLY larger than 2023 turned out to be, and 2024 is unlikely to be substantively better.
  
  
  

  Its also possible that one of the EV competitors (lucid? rivian?) actually implodes due to poor financials.

  
  Neither is really enough "competition" that I'd expect much impact to SP... especially Lucid... Rivian AFAIK has enough cash to last at least a couple more years even if they don't improve anything (and they have been)
  
  
  

  I would be very surprised if we are not at $300 soon in 24, and actually expect $400 next year.

  
  I've got some $400 covered calls I'd be happy to sell you for 2024.
  
  
  

  Personally I think the biggest impact is going to be the semi+cybertruck being made in serious quantities.

  
  But that's absolutely not a thing happening in 2024.... Again even Elon said CT will not contribute materially in 2024...and Semi they haven't even started building the factory for mass production.
  
  
  

  Right now Tesla is seen as a company that makes sedans and SUVs. Add trucks and pickups and it looks more diversified, safe and reliable as an investment.

  
  Sure. That's why I suggested the relatively weak growth in deliveries and EPS for 2024 will present good buying opportunities for those looking to future years instead.
  
  But $400 soon is... challenging...to find any actual #s to support the idea of.... esp. if you compare the YoY growth rate when we were previous there to this and next years.

I wonder how hard the NHTSA investigated Consumer Reports for publishing that "How to Defeat Tesla Safety Checks for Driver Attentiveness". Yeah, an actual how-to demo, including climbing out of the driver's seat in a moving vehicle. Was that investigated?

...for what?

It was all done on a closed course- and there's nothing illegal about publishing how to defeat a sensor (barring things like DMCA violations around defeating one in a cryptography sense, which isn't at all the case here).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Somebody remind me how many days ago it was that CNBC Television was parading guest analysts on air telling Retail that shorting TSLA was the best idea of 2024? Was it 6 daze, or only 5?



Cheers to all the deaf Retail ragamuffins!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Somebody remind me how many days ago it was that CNBC Television was parading guest analysts on air telling Retail that shorting TSLA was the best idea of 2024? Was it 6 daze, or only 5?

View attachment 999414

Cheers to all the deaf Retail ragamuffins!

If pressed with that question again, they would simply respond with "We said 2024 and we are still in 2023 currently"

 

[2daMoon]

Run Forrest, RUN!

(Forests are GREEN, aren't they?)

 

[madodel]

The only thing I know is this stock is confusing. A real brain scratcher

Has always been that way in the 10 years I've been invested. Always amazes me these very few folks who can pick when to buy and when to sell, well when to buy, since no one should be selling TSLA unless it is a life or death situation, and even then you should give serious thought to hodling.

 

[Tronguy]

Elon has said that Tesla doesn't do pure research. That is, any kind of research is expected to be delivered in a product. So all research is done with an eye toward profitability. This is a different mindset from companies that do a lot of research and then look to see if any of them can be productized.

I'm not sure how much secret research is really going on at Tesla. To take Optimus as an example, it sounds to me like Elon talked it over with some people and came up with initial specs for what it should be. But it sounds like engineers didn't take out their screwdrives and start working on a prototype until shortly before the announcement on AI day. (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Are there some big secret projects that Tesla is doing actual research on? That's very hard to say. But I kind of doubt that there is anything going on now that we won't hear about for several years. Tesla tends to have shorter time frames between idea and announcement.

Um. Speaking as a retired ex-Bell Laboratories guy, there's Research and there's R&D.

Pure Research is where one's boss says, "Look into this, would ya? Nobody really understands what's going on. Maybe there's something in it for us." Next thing you know, there's a transistor or some other Nobel Price winning item. What you don't see: The Research didn't find anything (as in, "running up alleys to find out if they're blind"); maybe a paper got generated, maybe it didn't. This kind of environment is like a turned-down venture capitalist enterprise: One doesn't find much, but once in a while, hoo-boy. There's not a lot of people doing this, at least in commercially driven companies. There's more doing this kind of work in Universities and such, although what with, "Write up this proposal so we can make some serious money!", a lot of the pure research that gets done these days in education is done in spite of the university administration.

Then there's the "research", small-"r". The boss says, "Look into this, would ya? It looks promising and, if it pans out, we'll make more money. If it doesn't look good, I got a half-dozen other things you should be looking at."

Often, in this environment, if one Finds Something, then it doesn't typically get handed over to somebody else - one starts working on making it a reality, which is labeled, "Development".

Thing is, where a company splits Research, research, and development, and under what conditions, is really up to the company and What Works For Them, or at least what is internally perceived as working for them. I've worked for a half-dozen companies or so before retiring and have talked to people who've worked at others, and nobody works it the same way.

So, in this case, I'll believe Musk and his, "We don't do research" comment. Because, probably, he's likely thinking ivory tower or the pure stuff. Which Tesla, as a mad-dash-to-taking-over-the-automotive-world or at least surviving type of company, doesn't likely do.

(Minor comment: I've always been an R&D guy, not an "R" guy. But I've known some "R" guys.)

Finally, I'm fairly sure that, for tax purposes, companies can write off some proportion of their research budget. Has anybody noticed that write-off in the various financial reports?