Here we go:
China Giga-Factory is now running at 1M vehicles per year. The first million cars took 2.5 years to produce, the next million took one year. Presumably they are not sitting on their collective laurels and will be improving on that:
The 1M a year run rate, per your link, appears to be AFTER the Sept upgrades (they updated the official capacity # in October per your link). This amount was already accounted for in the realistic # being nearer 2.1M than 2.5M.
Joe Tegtmeyer reports: Model Y production ramp is starting to hit another gear and within this quarter should roughly double production capability. This would be a run rate of roughly 10K per week from last spring’s record 5K per week peak.
This appears to be about Austin- but behind a Patreon paywall or something?
Where does Joe think they're getting the extra 250,000 Model Ys worth of 2170s from?
As discussed earlier (and again below) Tesla might have spare 4680s
quite late in the year to build extra Ys with, but not anytime soon and certainly not enough for an extra 250k in just the part of the year they're available.
Cybertruck production is expected to ramp faster than the original Model Y ramp at Giga Texas. This is experience, Giga Texas at a more mature state overall, and is related to ongoing efforts to increase the speed of the line from what it is now ~25% to closer to 100% by the start of 2nd Qtr.
That seems directly contrary to Teslas own statements that they don't expect to have enough 4680s for 100% of CT production goals until Q3 earliest-- further the MFG process for the CT is pretty different from the Y, so while I think "experience" helps some, it's probably not as much as you think. Regardless, they've said CT won't be material to Tesla financials all of 2024-- so at best you're talking ~100k trucks this year... you need 700k new sales to get to 2.5M... where's the other 600k from? (from what factories and with what batteries?)
Model 3 Highland sighted at Fremont, with U.S. production underway and release imminent:
Not sure how this helps your case? Freemont has been at/near max capacity for a long while now... the refresh might help Tesla not
lose sales of 3 in the US, but even that is dubious given the effective $7500 price increase on most of the ones they sell due to the IRA credit going away, and no US cells available to get it back. So at BEST it means 3 sales stay flat- how does that get you to 2.5M?
On the Y in the US we're seeing $5000 a car inventory discounts already early in Q1, even retaining the full $7500 tax credit, to keep moving existing production.
At any given price point there's a limit to how many buyers exist no matter how great your product is. Elon has repeatedly made this point. So aside from needing to find cells and factory space to MAKE 700k more cars, you need to find buyers for them, with pricing you're ok selling at. Lots of moving parts.
There was 57% growth in Europe in 2023. I don't know what the German word for Laurels is, but if I had to guess, I'd think maybe there wasn't one, because that crew in Grunheide isn't going to be resting on them in 2024.
57% YoY-- but declining deliveries every quarter through the year. This isn't even specific to Tesla, car buying in the EU is down a BUNCH overall due to broad economic reasons. Berlin actually
stopped production in December because of excess inventory with no buyers. Berlin has the
ability to make lots more cars (if batteries existed to put in them) but keeps choosing not to. Even with just the 2 shifts running instead of 4 supply was not a problem in Europe- finding enough buyers for that much production was. Where do you imagine the buyers for hundreds of thousands more would come from, esp. given EV incentives went away in Germany and elsewhere end of 2023? Troy has the #s and breakdowns here:
Always skate to the where the puck is going to be, not where it is now, especially when Tesla is shooting the puck...
That would be the next gen car....which will reignite >50% YoY for a good while... but we won't see that (possibly not at all, but certainly not in any meaningful numbers) in 2024.
Enjoy, I'll check back with you in one year on that 2.5M production number that you don't think Tesla is going to make.
Maybe just check back in 3 weeks to see if Tesla issues much lower guidance than 2.5 (say, nearer the 2.1 I'm suggesting) on the earnings call, since they obviously have an even better understanding of factory capacity, battery supply, and customer demand in various regions than any of us.
He did drugs, we all knew this, the list is typical, need to get over it.
My main concern with the drugs thing is technically this is a violation of government contracts and could, if the government wanted to "go after" him as some suggest they do, be a genuine (or at least legally legitimate) reason to screw SpaceX over.
The difficulty level there is there's literally no alternative for them to turn to at this time... so imagine that big sweating guy with 2 red buttons meme where the buttons are:
"Screw over Elon but have no ability to reach space"
and
"Ignore the drugs and keep giving SpaceX billions to access space in economical ways nobody else can provide and might not for years to come"
So far, the drugs being a bit of an open secret, they keep pressing the second one. Perhaps this latest round of stories is trying to pressure "them" to push the other one?
