Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

So definitely just a one off?

Current P/E ratio at SP of 207:
20700/107+73+78+53 = 66.5 as per google

In 2 weeks:
20700/73+78+53+227 = 48

28% compression

Google website has already updated TSLA to 42.5. AAPL at 32. AMZN at 82.5.

 

[Todd Burch]

My concern is the revolutionary process to make the next car will be harder than anticipated and as a result even more delays will take place.
Imagine the situation we would be in now if instead of the cybertruck a more conventional truck had been designed. We could be selling in the hundreds of thousands a year by now.

I hope the same process does not repeat itself with the next gen vehicle.

Sounds like you would prefer to invest in a company that doesn't innovate instead. I suggest GM.

 

[mongo]

Google website has already updated TSLA to 42.5. AAPL at 32. AMZN at 82.5.

...due to one time event...

 

[Congo Line]

It is not only about him, rather about the whole another fake drama. Yes, WE know the details but they spin it anyway they make money.

Now, how many of those January earning calls have we been through? Just look at the whole Tesla now vs even 2019. I take Tesla-now anytime.

It will pass.

I remember when I bought $TWTR at $45 before Elon acquired it. When Elon sued to nix the deal, Dan Ives was all over CNBS saying that the deal was dead, so then I sold at $37. Of course it went back up to ~$53 when the deal closed.

Bottom line, I don't think he knows what he's talking about most of the time. He is good at sounding convincing though.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Why 2023 vs a different year though?

The U.S. Gov't made a change to Valuation Allowance (VA) / Deferred Tax Assets by adding an expiry date to claim the VA. I think some of Tesla's VA was due to expire soon if not claimed.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I remember when I bought $TWTR at $45 before Elon acquired it. When Elon sued to nix the deal, Dan Ives was all over CNBS saying that the deal was dead, so then I sold at $37. Of course it went back up to ~$53 when the deal closed.

Bottom line, I don't think he knows what he's talking about most of the time. He is good at sounding convincing though.

Some of Dan Ives fav quotes:

"Line in the Sand"
"Sum of Parts"
"Green Tidal Wave"
"China is Key"

 

[MD70]

What is the PE ratio of a company with expected growth rate of 10%?

 

[SOULPEDL]

following a pattern...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750545815687291276

Curious what day 2 post ER looks like past years. Anyone know this off hand? Flat or up?

 

[Drax7]

a fully automated factory with robots walking around doing all labor. sure. but that ain't 2026 or 2027 or 2028....

Yeah this robot thing is so much pie in the sky, it’s an illusion at this
point. The last reason I would buy tesla is the robot …..

let’s get fsd going first which seems within reach of being a great
driving assistant tool.

Robot taxi is more complex and again seems further out.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Shouldn't they halt the stock already? NVM, its $TSLA, they need to squeeze every last $ possible.

 

[Paul_SF]

It looks like the EVs were just a fad and the world is going to forever run on fossil fuels.... Someone let the Chinese know, poor guys are going crazy with them, they have no idea they are doomed. /s

 

[Artful Dodger]

a strategy to buyback stock at $200 a share and later do an offering at $400 a share is not a bad thing.

Tesla's $5B share offering in Sep 2020 was at a avg SP around $158 and their follow-up $5B offering in Dec 2020 was also completed at around an avg SP of $155. Tesla can profit from those issuances if the SP revisits those levels anytime soon (plus an allowance for the 3% they're getting annually on that cash right now, of course!). IMO, share buybacks should be coordinated with the Board's new CEO comp. plan. I want to see Elon execute those 2018 shares before I vote to accept any new plan, especially if the 'how-he-sells' issue isn't addressed.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That's the volume chart. Max pain is based on open interest and that is only updated at 7am each day. Volume chart shiws lots of trading around the stock price, possibly to play volatility.

Interesting that the 225 volume is less than the open interest.
View attachment 1012138

I'm aware. Just updating volume to show diff from earlier today.
My question was why Max Pain is still 215, same as yesterday.
The Open Interest (I'll get this right eventually) chart changed since yesterday right? But MP landed exactly back on 215 today? I guess... just a coincidence.

Edit: Here's yesterday's OI chart. Looks pretty different to me.

Spoiler: Yesterday's OI

 

[EVWatcher]

Clearly bs. If they believed that why would there be a sell off? Why all the downgrades today? Why Dan Ives parading around about how disastrous and childish the ER call was?

Downgrades on price targets but maintaining a “buy” is Wall Street for “we still believe in the company long term but we don’t want to look bad by not adjusting our price target when the stock drops a bunch.

People like Dan Ives I just ignore.

 

[AnbaricBike]

Zach Kirkhorn was the most effective communicator in the leadership team. The last two calls would have gone a lot better if he was still on-board.

I liked Zach a lot but he always sounded to me like he was apologizing for something. Just the way he speaks I guess.

 

[Opus BC fan]

[Go be fruitful and multiply] em

We've read the book. We know how this ends.

 

[wipster]

I'm gathering you were knocked out cold by the earnings call yesterday and only waking up now.

Actually I just stopped crying...

 

[uscbucsfan]

Short memory much? All Tesla vehicles were shipped with a lot of features missing. My Model 3 didn’t have backseat heaters working for several months. The car didn’t have hill hold, chime on lock, dog mode, cat mode, joe mode, fart mode, romance mode - The
list is endless. I know what you’re going to say next so let me rebut that - it’s not relevant what you think is required at time of sale. The fact remains, every single vehicle Tesla has sold has been feature incomplete from day 1. It’s how they roll. CT shipping incomplete is no different.

These are things that a startup does. Tesla is or should be a more mature company...especially in regards to a mass produced car (Gen3). The CT doesn't even have AP, can't offroad currently, has a poor charging curve, cannot charge on non-Tesla NACs, doesn't have any sort of real towing modes for range estimation or payload estimation (like almost every truck in the world). And obviously the build quality on most of the customer deliveries has been pretty poor and random.

These are all normal with Tesla and I know of them and they will improve. I believe or hope for the car they want to sell 10k per month ASAP, it needs to be stable and ready to be positively reviewed, because unlike the CT, it's not going to be a niche rich person's toy. It's supposed to appeal to the masses.

The CT was never intended to take down the F series sales, despite the hopium, but a $25k EV that has mass appeal could take down ICE standard vehicle sales to a level that the M3/Y can't, if executed properly.

 

[mongo]

The U.S. Gov't made a change to Valuation Allowance (VA) / Deferred Tax Assets by adding an expiry date to claim the VA. I think some of Tesla's VA was due to expire soon if not claimed.

Interesting, the 2022 10K only called out loss carry forward expiration
"As of December 31, 2022, we had $18.0 billion of federal and $14.0 billion of state net operating loss carry-forwards available to offset future taxable income, some of which, if not utilized, will begin to expire in 2023 for federal and state purposes."

 

[SOULPEDL]

Sold some early AM (fyi), bought back some already... ya taking chances but it eases the blow.

Several others last night were sharing their concerns, so I acted on what others thought might happen. They were right. If we hit 177 I'll get more back, simply counting on that 175 mark mentioned earlier.

That -10% trend is also burned into my brain. If I come up short some shares, it's just better cushion for a macro bust. There, I justified it... so far. Like I said, it's risky yet fun and eases the hangover. Except, the one's I sold took a real loss in fact. So not trying to paint rosy pictures, just keeping it .

Time to get lucky twice as they say. It is a bit of luck. Definitely not an advice!