Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Bottom line, I don't think he knows what he's talking about most of the time. He is good at sounding convincing though.

Yep, he'll start of talking like he knows what is going on, then say something that discounts that assumption. This leaves the impression he's only read the Cliff's Notes in preparation for the performance and never really understood the part he is playing.

He has mastered the technique of being the guy who dresses funny and speaks authoritatively using a unique dialect. This imbues him with those favored prophet-like qualities for the viewing audience to be wowed by. Which gets clicks.

At least he tends toward more optimism than others who get airtime.

 

[Quesder]

now where is the bottom? 185? New analyst target $170? Should we sell now and pick up again at the bottom?

Apparently it is not 185... now 180. Cannot believe it is so brutal. AH still held $195, now another $15

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interesting, the 2022 10K only called out loss carry forward expiration

Keep in mind I'm not @The Accountant but I think those "net operating loss carry-forwards" are the actual "deferred tax assets"...

 

[tslagreen]

Personally I like Dan Ives and appreciate his analyses. He's been right a number of times, and I think he gets both the short and long term stock movements. And this is precisely his role as an analyst. With the risk of stating the obvious, institutional investors rely on analysts to determine their short and long term strategies.

I like to hear different perspectives.

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah this robot thing is so much pie in the sky, it’s an illusion at this
point. The last reason I would buy tesla is the robot …..

let’s get fsd going first which seems within reach of being a great
driving assistant tool.

Robot taxi is more complex and again seems further out.

Remember, FSD and the Robot are in parallel and complimentary development. They share hardware and software.

When one is achieved, the other one will be as well.

Then, it could be "Katie bar the door" to the betting windows.

 

[tslagreen]

so, $181 tomorrow. Check.

You called it.

 

[Stormy24]

Apparently it is not 185... now 180. Cannot believe it is so brutal. AH still held $195, now another $15

It’s 10-11% off for the worst earnings the stock market has ever seen then we follow the market. I think that’s how it works.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla is holding back production increases due to demand issues,

Nawh, Tesla runs one $8M ad on the Superbowl saying "Lease Model Y from $365/mth" with a QR code which sends your cell phone straight to the Tesla order page...

There's 500K/yr spare Model Y capacity at Austin as soon as the 2nd 4680 line goes into production. And they are commissioning THREE such lines as we speak.

 

[mongo]

Keep in mind I'm not @The Accountant but I think those "net operating loss carry-forwards" are the actual "deferred tax assets"...

I don't think so (but I'm not a CPA, so ). They are called out separately in the 10K. Operating losses impact the tax valuation allowance, but they are different buckets.

As of December 31, 2022, we recorded a valuation allowance of $7.35 billion for the portion of the deferred tax asset that we do not expect to be realized. The valuation allowance on our net deferred taxes decreased by $1.73 billion in the year ended December 31, 2022, and increased by $6.14 billion and $974 million during the years ended December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively. The changes in valuation allowance are primarily due to changes in U.S. deferred tax assets and liabilities incurred in the respective year. The decrease in the year ended December 31, 2022 included utilization of $13.57 billion net operating loss carry forwards to offset our 2022 U.S. taxable income.

As of December 31, 2022, we had $18.0 billion of federal and $14.0 billion of state net operating loss carry-forwards available to offset future taxable income, some of which, if not utilized, will begin to expire in 2023 for federal and state purposes.

 

[2daMoon]

You called it.

tink, tink, tink, tink, goes the spring winding up...

HODL y'all!

 

[Chartered321]

Worst earnings call ever: CFO couldn't reply to questions clearly and in a good english, I missed 40% of what he said, never said anything financially meaningful, even Deepak was better than him. No official guidances given, only an implied downgrade of the revenues growth rate from 40% to 10% due to different waves of revenues: automotive and energy. All things AI and robotics, can't be translated into a product for the next forseable future. Elon just can't communicate to wall street or want...
On the positive side: average COGS per veicle of USD 36k is in a great trajectory. Other positives require fantasy and speculation: hence the horrendous price action of today.

Either AI and robotics become a real product in 2024 or this is a 200bn mkt cap automotive company. Elon knows it and given his aim to own that 25% tanked the stock price creating a buying opportunity to himself.

What do I do? I leverage my long position

Regards

 

[GOVA]

You called it.

To be fair, I just followed another poster listing ~10% drops after many calls. I just flossed a random number.

I'll try to improve next time on the way up.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My guess is they are somewhat sandbagging their ability to start the 20,000$ car to minimize affecting Y/3 sales.

You betcha they are! Ron Baron told us straight out in Nov 2023 that the Model 2 would start production in 9-12 months! I think Telsa is being clever and saying "2nd half of 2025" w/o specifiying that's volume production (which would be at least 10K/wk) but they have 4680 cell production capacity for many more. I think the Model 2 ramp speed will come down to the Cathode Plant, and then the Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi.

Cheers!

 

[Drax7]

Remember, FSD and the Robot are in parallel and complimentary development. They share hardware and software.

When one is achieved, the other one will be as well.

Then, it could be "Katie bar the door" to the betting windows.

Not necessarily, level 4 could be a great driving assistant,
requiring minimal supervision, and be very popular, before
full robotaxi is accomplished.

robotaxi might require even greater artificial intelligence

 

[GOVA]

Worst earnings call ever: CFO couldn't reply to questions clearly and in a good english, I missed 40% of what he said, never said anything financially meaningful, even Deepak was better than him. No official guidances given, only an implied downgrade of the revenues growth rate from 40% to 10% due to different waves of revenues: automotive and energy. All things AI and robotics, can't be translated into a product for the next forseable future. Elon just can't communicate to wall street or want...
On the positive side: average COGS per veicle of USD 36k is in a great trajectory. Other positives require fantasy and speculation: hence the horrendous price action of today.

Either AI and robotics become a real product in 2024 or this is a 200bn mkt cap automotive company. Elon knows it and given his aim to own that 25% tanked the stock price creating a buying opportunity to himself.

What do I do? I leverage my long position

Regards

Ironic for a dude from Italy. Tesla is a multinational company like it or not. There are folks with different accents, even the important ones.
Go invest in a company that you have no prejudice against. Seriously.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What do I do? I leverage my long position

The Chancery Court of Delaware can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Folks, please don't use leverage (and/or margerine), or bet money you're gonna need anytime soon.

 

[Congo Line]

The Chancery Court of Delaware can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Folks, please don't use leverage (and/or margerine), or bet money you're gonna need anytime soon.

Any folks with legal background have knowledge on how long these cases can take? Would be nice to know what are Elon's next performance metrics.

 

[philw1776]

Reverse paraphrasing Gone With The Wind, "We's po now!"

 

[2daMoon]

Not necessarily, level 4 could be a great driving assistant,
requiring minimal supervision, and be very popular, before
full robotaxi is accomplished.

robotaxi might require even greater artificial intelligence

Agreed.

Though if a great driving assistant requiring minimal supervision is possible, " your plastic pal who is fun to be with* " will be able to do things with minimal supervision as well.
Despite any pain in all the diodes down their left side.*

*HHGTG references

 

[SOULPEDL]

Apparently it is not 185... now 180. Cannot believe it is so brutal. AH still held $195, now another $15

I feel for ya. In fact my son bought TSLA last week on my recommendation for the first time. Hope he doesn't sue me but he's from Fla so probably not.

If it's any consequence, I felt the same way x10 when I rode 90% of my retirement in TSLA all the way down to 100's and back up again. But it's why I'm still here today, and this too shall pass. And possibly a lot quicker snap to it. That Jan 30th (or thereabout) presentation could turn things around, possibly as planned by Tesla BoD. I will likely be all back in before the show, just in case.

Which brings up a point. I really hope I'm not pissing off people by some trades or wishing for a lower price on occasion. Please understand it's just how I fight back, kinda like "bring it on" attitude. There is, by no means, any intended pain here. Years ago, this did come up as an issue when folks used to share their trades. Those folks are dwindling it seems and we are left with a high concentration of purists, (possibly Darwin related).

Everyone has a unique situation and I'm the kind that shares more than most, in and out of the rooms so to speak. But I mean no harm.