Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Can I be honest with you? (Actually you don’t have a choice, but I understand it’s etiquette to ask.)

You’re overthinking, too much in your head, and have been brainwashed.

It's even more complicated than that. I was born with Analysis Paralysis (AP). But thanks for the heads up... I already knew this, and I'm sure there's some brainwashing among us all.

It's literally why it takes me forever to accomplish anything (including writing this). Everything I make has to be as good as I possibly can make it. This is both a curse and a gift with some pretty cool and unique outcomes that do stroke my pride.

In trading stocks, the depth is endless in trying to wonder what the rest of the world is thinking on top of all this new stuff I learned here first. But in doing so, my mental model of the world has changed significantly. I'm getting way more out of this forum, people only see the stuff above the waterline.

There is change in the air now. I'm looking more into the family and the Arts, ya know. Maybe I can channel it there for a while. It's pretty cool when the skills used to make things can easily turn into art.

 

[scaesare]

When has the CT ever been perceived as part of a growth story?

The CT was presented as an innovative, disruptive, next gen technology story. Every step of the way they have spoken of how everything about the truck will be different from design, to the materials, to the assembly line. This doesn't paint a rosy picture for growth.

It is more an example of a Tesla Blade Runner Pickup, for a 21st Century Bubba.

The reveal never left any impression Tesla had intentions of it being on par with M3 or MY (growth story) production levels. Though I can say I've always expected it to have higher production numbers than S and X.

Though, thanks to its immense popularity, I agree how it may now become a growth story.

Agreed... from the beginning, Elon wasn't really sure the Mad Max styling would appeal to folks, and figured if not they'd do something more traditional... they weren't counting on tit for growth... much more a cool pet project it would seem:

It can be a better sports car than a Porsche 911, a better truck than an F-150, and it’s armored and looks sort of kick-ass from the future. That was the goal, recognizing this could be a complete failure. But I wasn’t super worried about that because if it turns out nobody wants to buy a weird-looking truck, we’ll build a normal truck, no problem. There’s lots of normal trucks out there that look pretty much the same; you can hardly tell the difference. And sure, we could just do some copycat truck; that’s easy. So that’s our fallback strategy

 

[Snerruc]

Yes, this correct. VIN creation, assembly, VIN assignment, then shipping.

Thanks for straightening me out!

 

[2daMoon]

Can I be honest with you? (Actually you don’t have a choice, but I understand it’s etiquette to ask.)

You’re overthinking, too much in your head, and have been brainwashed.

I decided some decades back how beneficial it is to simply accept that everyone is brainwashed. Everyone.

The important thing to take from such an epiphany is in developing skills for determining whether you are doing your own wash, or, is somebody else doing it for you.

 

[unk45]

This is what I was wondering. Based on how Elon described Dojo on Wednesday he made it sound like it just wasn’t working out. No updated charts about compute growth in the deck (as far as I know). Basically said Tesla would have to be super-lucky to succeed with Dojo.

Then two days later he comes out and says Tesla’s investing $500M in a Dojo compute center?

How do we interpret that other than Elon is downplaying Dojo? It must be doing something right if they’re going to spend half a billion on it in NY.

Edit: someone pointed out he may be downplaying it to avoid losing access to NVidia/AMD chips. That’s a good theory.

Maybe I was listening to a different call than were you. I recall Dojo as High Risk, High Reward, worth the investment to prove. That is consistent with everything I have heard Tesla say, Elon or others. perhaps it is simply that most companies might invest only in 'sure things' from their perspective. Others invest in now approaches and new technologies and exert the effort and resources needed to make them successful of they can. Elon and Tesla have always followed that approach.

Perhaps the idea that absolutely dedicated hardware and software is superior to do pure neural net training may not necessarily be correct. Therin lies the question. Tesla is testing that hypothesis. Hence high risk/high reward if it works/ 'meh' if it does not.

Among the experts among us there are firm opinions. After all this is NOT a settled question. I am not an expert. I cannot even pose the question in technical terms. I am familiar with the Musk and Tesla propensity to do things experts say cannot be done and do them anyway. From reusable rockets to strange little laptop battery cells powering a car..regular 'impossible' things happen.

From FSD itself to DOJO to 4680 scaling, Optimus and paintless cars some things take longer, some don't.

Personally I expect impossible things to take longest, improbable ones a bit less time, and evolutionary ones faster. Hence: HODL implies patience for miracles.

 

[unk45]

Isn't that "bawling"?
The three stages of stock ownership (in no particularorder): ball, bawl, bail...

Porche was refering to the Sawyer post "Fully-Loaded Porsche Macan Electric Can Cost Over $163,000"
Base price: $105k
Options: $53k (no, it doesn't come with a Model Y)
Fully-Loaded Porsche Macan Electric Can Cost Over $160,000

Anybody surprised has never bought a Porsche! My last one was before Tesla entered my life, but a quick look at the old Monroney shows my 964 had 88% of MSRP in options. The base price of any Porsche is not likely to produce a vehicle anyone would actually want to drive.

OTOH, a base price Tesla is a pretty decent car.

 

[insaneoctane]

This latest Q and WS/analysts have forced me to take a step back and reevaluate my investment thesis. It turns out, the only realization that I've come up with is that I've artifically applied my desired timeline to Tesla. There are many unexpected factors that have impacted the reality of Tesla's execution speed. Most of these things have been mentioned before (pandemic, wars, interest rates, inflation, politics, wallstreet, etc). The good work that Tesla aims to do is absolutely impacted by the macro factors. WS isn't trustworthy, nor is the media. As we brace for the latest political cycle, I'm reminded just how prevalent FUD is. Also, WS is far less patience than me, so I need to ignore them. I really resonated with @The Accountant when he commented on how private executives don't check the value of their companies daily. That's the real message. I want the stock price to 2x or 4x or more because I want validation and I want to see more 0's....but wanting it to happen faster isn't going to make it happen any faster, it's only going to frustrate me along the way. I'm still very committed and proud to have a small piece of ownership in Tesla and will use this period of reflection to try and slow my expectations down and smell the roses along the journey.

 

[tmoz]

Like you state, I imagine a large variability in profitability for individual sites, but overall Elon has stated their target.

30% Gross Margin and 10% Net Margin.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1510691354623590410

Thanks for finding that Tweet of his.

I'm interpreting that statement as the following:
Costs:
Equipment and Build cost are spread out over a period of time (10, 20, or 30 yrs - how long, I don't know).
Annual maintenance costs
Annual electricity costs
Income:
Payments from SC users
So (Income-Costs)/Costs = 10%

Is this about right or is it figured some other way?

 

[Buckminster]

It's even more complicated than that. I was born with Analysis Paralysis (AP). But thanks for the heads up... I already knew this, and I'm sure there's some brainwashing among us all.

I decided some decades back how beneficial it is to simply accept that everyone is brainwashed. Everyone.

Not me, Elon said that the media do the brainwashing stuff. Life is easier when you follow Elon like I do. True story.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not me, Elon said that the media do the brainwashing stuff. Life is easier when you follow Elon like I do. True story.

The EV world would be impossible to decipher without a lot of trust in Elon. When he says it will fold that shirt, we will see this - eventually.

 

[The Accountant]

Thanks for finding that Tweet of his.

I'm interpreting that statement as the following:
Costs:
Equipment and Build cost are spread out over a period of time (10, 20, or 30 yrs - how long, I don't know).
Annual maintenance costs
Annual electricity costs
Income:
Payments from SC users
So (Income-Costs)/Costs = 10%

Is this about right or is it figured some other way?

What you have there would get us the 30% Gross Margin.
Additional costs to get us to the 10% profitability would included:
- Supercharger R&D
- Supercharger General & Admin costs (staff that is planning, communicating and managing SC network).

My guess is that over time we will get 30% Gross Margin and 20% profitability as R&D and G&A expenses will not grow as fast as revenues.

 

[2daMoon]

Not me, Elon said that the media do the brainwashing stuff. Life is easier when you follow Elon like I do. True story.

I consider choosing to follow Elon's lead as a perfect example of "doing my own wash"

 

[UncaNed]

When do we expect Lathrop to reach the targeted 20 GWH or 40 GWH annual outputs, which if I'm not mistaken, at 3.9 MWH megapack capacity, equates to over 5,000 or over 10,000 annual megapacks?

Edit-
I thought someone here would have heard an official aspirational timeline...

 

[lafrisbee]

Yes, thank you for another fine example of that which I described. Would you like to repeat yourself once more? Keeping in mind Einstein's definition of insanity and all.

FWIW, I'd want a Cybertruck even if I weren't a shareholder. It is just the coolest rig around.

"Coolest" is subjective. The Performance metrics and the inability to meet them are not.
Efficiency goal not met
Towing Metric Not met
Range goal hahahahahahahahahaha
Payload NOPE.
And as to it being a truck? The real distinction of a truck from other vehicles is that the vehicle must be built by the manufacturer to have a bed which is exposed. Tesla designed the Cyber(nota)truck to have a cover and the trunk remain closed except when needed, due to the loss of what meager range it has. And it tried to baffle consumer with Bull.
"Coolest" to Elon's son and Manchildren.
It is a toy for boys. Less functional except as an attention getter. It has that crippled old man in a Corvette vibe.

 

[lafrisbee]

Check out that hella cliff we just fell off! Send it! New slope achieved! EPIC SWAN! New record for quick drop? Totally gnarly nosedive brahs + bradettes + catbrahs + catbrahdettes. View attachment 1012558

You have a short memory. This does not even make the top ten.

 

[Tony73]

When do we expect Lathrop to reach the targeted 20 GWH or 40 GWH annual outputs, which if I'm not mistaken, at 3.9 MWH megapack capacity, equates to over 5,000 or over 10,000 annual megapacks?

I think Lathrop has some supply chain issues maybe power electronics. They’ve been ramping for a year. It’s a much simpler manufacturing process than auto

 

[lafrisbee]

Agreed... from the beginning, Elon wasn't really sure the Mad Max styling would appeal to folks, and figured if not they'd do something more traditional... they weren't counting on tit for growth... much more a cool pet project it would seem:

It isn't about "Styling". It is about the lack of meeting firm goals that were continuously stated over time, and were never questioned. The form was supposed to be functional. And I guess you can argue it still has some functionality, But not because of the form.The stainless steel panels are "strong." But the form has little to do with it. The form makes the trunk less useful. It is as if Elon wanted to think his son was on to something; "Why doesn't the future look like the future?" Was a question from a child. Not a reason to "design" a vehicle to look like what a child thinks the future will look like.

 

[2daMoon]

"Coolest" is subjective. The Performance metrics and the inability to meet them are not.
Efficiency goal not met
Towing Metric Not met
Range goal hahahahahahahahahaha
Payload NOPE.
And as to it being a truck? The real distinction of a truck from other vehicles is that the vehicle must be built by the manufacturer to have a bed which is exposed. Tesla designed the Cyber(nota)truck to have a cover and the trunk remain closed except when needed, due to the loss of what meager range it has. And it tried to baffle consumer with Bull.
"Coolest" to Elon's son and Manchildren.
It is a toy for boys. Less functional except as an attention getter. It has that crippled old man in a Corvette vibe.

Have you considered seeking professional counseling?
Could this be the internet version of Tourette's syndrome?

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT - (Mission related)

Costa Rica water has been contaminated by hydrocarbons. Several metro regions at a min. Est 100,000 impacted. It's Costa Rica - people!!! It's suppose to be one of the last untouched paradises remaining. It's what they sell besides bananas and coffee which are not doing well either due to climate (heat/change/drought). Very sad indeed.

"The Ministry of Health stresses the importance of water being colorless, odorless, and tasteless. Residents are urged to follow guidelines and report any taste or odor of diesel, gasoline, kerosene, or other hydrocarbons in their water supply."

Costa Rica gasoline distribution is gov't owned, so cover-up is quite possible here. They used to refine it locally, but have shifted into purchasing it already refined. I don't know any more details, but obviously should be looking here first. Only the gas stations are private, yet the prices are exactly the same everywhere in CR.

Costa Rica Acts Over Toxic Drinking Water Emergency

A Toxic Drinking Water Emergency demands action from water authorities in Costa Rica after the discovery of contaminated water.

ticotimes.net

 

[lafrisbee]

Have you considered seeking professional counseling?

Considering how bad Tesla kept the truth from me (and all of you), and then ignored their across the board failure I think I am better than I should be. I could have just ignored the truth and been a happy lil fanboy.