Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Sorry, but this really seems stupid to me...

Before / After:
View attachment 1014680

I understand the left better with the icons vs larger text...

Government agencies make really poor UI designers.

 

[Singuy]

I can imagine. I often hear that Elon wants to keep share price down to help workers collect more shares at lower price but if the stock is down or flat for months/years, the employee sees their restricted stock shares not gaining any value and for some, the value is dropping. This can be especially frustrating if there are stories of past employees walking out as millionaires.

The guy said the majority of Tesla employees are not financially independent due to stocks. There are a few for sure, but definitely not the majority. He claims that he is not financially independent himself.

 

[Drumheller]

If you think you're frustrated with Musk's behavior that cause stock crashes, his workers are even more fraustrated.

Not many people watched this entire thing but you should as this Asian guy is one of the few who survived 7 years on the AP team.

One thing to note is that the stock price absolutely affects the worker's mood and productivity according to him. He said many team members took out margin loans during the meteoritic rise of Tesla stock and after Musk decided to sell massive amount of stock, these workers were all margin called. It's probably the most frustrating thing ever when employees unlike us cannot just sell anytime to close their position but must wait till the windowed period.

So in theory, Musk should be more mindful about what he says and do if it's material to the stock price(lol I say material to the stock price and not really material to the company).

I agree with this in general. However, specific to TSLA, it seems to me the biggest weight directing the price is Wall Street's ability to set it anywhere they like to milk options. This week continues to be evidence of that.

Or do most people really believe Tesla today is worth less than half of what it was worth over 2 years ago?

 

[GhostSkater]

It’s only 3700 km, and has some spectacular scenery. I’ve only done that by air.

Let's go!!!

Sadly there is a CCS gap in Argentina which will need a long AC charge, the rest is easy

 

[Cobos]

Belgium is already solidly ahead of Norway in Jan 2024: 1826 deliveries versus 1109 in Norway.
3.91% market share.

Well Model Y was 19% of the total Norwegian car market. January sales in 2024 was about 60% of 2022 so sales of any car is down a lot. Number 2 car in January was the new improved Hyundai Kona with 282 sales, while #3 was Leaf at 263. EVs are in January at 92% while Tesla has a market share of 22% of the entire car market.
But yeah the growth in Norway wont be much, I doubt Model Y will get much above 25% market share on it's own. In Belgium on the other hand the sky is the limit.

 

[Unpilot]

Max pain is $187....SP is strangely heading that way

 

[jamaatta]

In the meantime, Boeing airplane doors are popping off.
I hope they do not ground all the teslas.

Don't you worry about Boeing's popping doors. It's nothing that a good old OTA update won't fix!

 

[SmokyPeat]

HODL TSLA!​

It's a rainbow !

 

[Drax7]

Don't you worry about Boeing's popping doors. It's nothing that a good old OTA update won't fix!

Parachutes maybe?

 

[heltok]

Meta shares leap 20% as investors cheer dividend and $50bn buyback

So $50B buyback announced and the company is now worth $200B more. EMH.

 

[t153]

Having set up large robot assembly myself I tend to agree with this statement. In many large robot assembly/automation cells the robot itself is a small percentage (20-30%) of the cost. Typically there is a lot of other equipment to do the feeding, precision location and the actual process. (welding, sealing, etc.) In these systems, the robot is actually the easy part.

Although there could be a few places where Optimus replaces an industrial robot I don't see this happening everywhere. The jobs are large scale and require solid anchoring to the floor and very specialized tools and equipment which are most of the cost. The majority of the cost is the process equipment, not the robot so trying to substitute a human like robot would not really save any cost.

There are plenty of human jobs where Optimus can be plugged in easily. The beauty of Optimus is the flexibility. There are many many jobs where humans are much better than automation because they are completely flexible. The parts being handled may not lend them self to automation (think wiring, hoses, flufferbot, etc.). Also there are many jobs where setting up the automatic feed systems to get the part to the job would far exceed the cost of a human which is completely flexible to walk over and grab the right part from a box or tote. This is the main use case for Optimus in the factory. I don't believe you are going to see a wholesale removal of the industrial robots in the factory.

You sure got a laugh out of me when I read that, but then I googled fluffer-bot and saw that it was a real thing during initial phases of the Model 3 production.

 

[AudubonB]

It is BS next level. Font Size, really?

The oversized problem here is inherent in the term "Recall". I am certain that 99.44% of the participants in this thread, and 100% of its non-trolls, are absolutely aware that the ratio of so-called recalls that are addressed by over-the-air updates versus needing human intervention is on the order of 1:99; possibly more at 1:999. It is ever-frustrating that, apparently because of an anachronistic feature of the NHTSA (shocking, isn't it?!) which mandates the use of that word, a more appropriate one is not used. Who would like to count how many times Apple has issued Recalls of all its products? Per NHTSA's wording, it should be in the thousands.

We all know that "patch" or "update" is the correct term, but I defy any news organization to apply that when discussing Tesla. EVEN THE ONES most supportive of the company. Sure makes for fine, misleading, and overall reprehensible journalism.

 

[The Accountant]

Without 2024 guidance… what a good number for 2024 Q1 deliveries?

Troy's current number for Q1 is 484k (so about flat to Q4'23 but ahead of Q1'23 of 423k).

Production challenges in Q1 are:
- 2 week shutdown in Berlin
- Model 3 Highland ramp in Fremont
- Chinese new year shutdown (no different than last year)

Production upsides:
- Higher weekly production output Berlin/Austin vs Q1'23
- inventory wave flattening likely completed.

Regarding the inventory wave reduction, see this table:

I believe the wave flattening began in Q3 2022 and ended in Q2 2023 (see black box above).
The inventory build that occurred at year-end in Q4 '23 was to replenish the inventory draw in Q3'23.
In Q1 2023, you can see that Tesla produced 17,933 more cars than it delivered as vehicles were in transit on ships/car carriers.
This Q1, I expect to see a small build in inventory of about 5k but we may actually see a draw where Tesla delivers more cars than produced (there were some late ships at year-end that arrived early Jan).

Considering the challenges I mentioned above (Berlin shutdown, Fremont Highland ramp), I think Troy's 484k is reasonable.
490k would be solid and anything over 500k very bullish, imo.

 

[Stretch2727]

You sure got a laugh out of me when I read that, but then I googled fluffer-bot and saw that it was a real thing during initial phases of the Model 3 production.

Yeah, did that from memory as I remember Elon call it out as a job better for a human. I think they just eliminated the part. Something the old-timers here will remember...

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's very interesting, I've honestly never considered the possibility that humanoid robots could work FASTER than humans. More hours per day for certain, but faster?

Elon said years ago that one of the limiting factors for robots in the factory would eventually become air resistance! When you are moving so fast that you get positional flutter from air turbulence, you know it's time to start building factories in orbit, or on the Moon, or Mars

Cheers!

 

[AudubonB]

Interesting bit of news although not directly Tesla related, Ethiopia is banning the imports of ICE vehicles and vows to build out a charging infrastructure.

Primarily motivated by not wanting to spend billions on the imports of oil but nevertheless a good sign that Africa might be able to leap frog into a green future.

Ethiopia to Prohibit Importation of Non-Electric Cars

Ethiopia's Transport Ministry says it is moving in the direction of banning import of non-Electric vehicles. Electric cars to get ...

borkena.com

As Ethiopia goes, so goes the USA?

So it rings with this by-background ex-Downeaster. Probably too many young'uns in this forum for the chuckle it deserves though, unfortunately.

 

[NicoV]

Well Model Y was 19% of the total Norwegian car market. January sales in 2024 was about 60% of 2022 so sales of any car is down a lot. Number 2 car in January was the new improved Hyundai Kona with 282 sales, while #3 was Leaf at 263. EVs are in January at 92% while Tesla has a market share of 22% of the entire car market.
But yeah the growth in Norway wont be much, I doubt Model Y will get much above 25% market share on it's own. In Belgium on the other hand the sky is the limit.

I really doubt Tesla will get to 25% percent in Belgium, at least not on the short term. I just wanted to indicate that well thought out government incentives can have a profound impact on the market, in Belgium the coming 5 years, just like in Norway the previous 5 years. And what we’re seeing today is just the first of those 5 years.
Most European countries seem to throw subsidies towards increasing EV market share, which inevitably has to stop at some point when it gets too expensive, with a corresponding pause in EV growth. The Belgian policy of restricting an existing tax regime to EV’s only and excluding ICE is much less dependent on public money availability.

 

[WMTribe90]

I know I’ve heard reporting on BYDs low margins on their pure EV sales, but I can’t find a source when I searched it up. Could someone point me to a source for that claim? TIA!

 

[gillfoto]

Sorry if this is a repost, but just in case it hadn't:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753106358608736570

It's a petition letter to the board of directors.

I respect a lot of members on this forum and would be interested on comments supporting the

"Shareholder Letter to Tesla's Board of Directors"​

 

[AudubonB]

Sorry if this is a repost, but just in case it hadn't:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753106358608736570

It's a petition letter to the board of directors.

If someone lets us know how many of those 247 are cognizant of and competent to assess Texas's Incorporation laws, costs and judiciary ramifications, and how they compare to those of Delaware, Nevada, Mexico and Mars, that would be of interest. Otherwise, it is more noise in this concept, already so fraught with consequences beyond imagination.