Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I don't believe the Boring Company can go through water, and the way downtown Vancouver is situated, that would be a requirement, although not in every direction.

Tunnels and Chunnels have been quite successful beneath bodies of water long before TBC was a thing.

Plus, they could then use Tesla vehicles instead of busses. (always looking for ways to increase our SP)

 

[kabin]

We can tell the "controls" part is much smoother in V12 - the part that was heuristics previously. That's a great sign. Right now disengagements in V12 are higher than V11, but I'd guess that will match V11 the first half of this year. Look at how long its been since Elon's V12 demo till now - 5 to 6 6 months. Good progress, but not like it's mindblowing. So I'd expect the 2nd half of this year for V12 iterations to show disengagements at maybe 1/2 to 1/4 of V11.

Combined with the increased smoothness is probably enough to have a L2 product that is quality enough many people would pay some money for. The equivalent of autopilot for city streets.

But Tesla may have to lower subscription prices to engage more people - I would think this could increase overall FSD revenue and think it's an obivous move to boost margins a bit. Maybe they are waiting until it's good enough to do this?

The thing is, great L2 will boost margins a bit, but doesn't make life altering changes to the company valuation. That only happens if people think robotaxis are imminent. Realistically, there is a long road between great L2 and robotaxis. The disengagement rate has to be really, really low to be software capable for robotaxis. Like 1 critical disengagement every 10,000 - 100,000 miles. Not every 100-500 miles like currently.

So I'd rate there almost 0 chance Tesla gets close to that level (which the market would definitely respond to).

The real question is: can Tesla get to a point that the pace of change is so rapid that the market prices in future expectations years early? This is possible, but the rate of change would have to be much faster than it is currently. Part of that depends on how much compute do they have coming online. Last we heard it seemed like they 2x their compute (only). Way below the 10x-100x they are planning for. I was disappointed Elon did not respond to the question about compute limits on the earnings call. This insight is needed for any institutional investor to get more bullish.

Yep, less is more works to a point. Controls are much improved but only because they were so severely unrefined/neglected before - nearly every FSD owner complained about them. So far v12 seems to be choking on insufficient optimal training data which was suspected. Training has always been an issue with FSD and v12 only makes it that much harder. I expect v12's pace of change/improvements will remain slow.

V12.x still hasn't begun to be released into the world of edge cases. They need to be very careful with v12's full release. I wouldn't be surprised if v12.x needed a few 'beta' version releases before full release.

It's likely a long road before many consumers would plunk down $12k for FSD. And the $25k compact car should act like a lead balloon for FSD pricing.

 

[Christine69420]

I do not know when robotaxis will be available.

But Tesla could make me pay a monthly fee starting now if they let me subscribe to FSD over here in Europe. Low hanging fruits.
I am talking about the current V12 - not the future complete FSD version.

 

[cliff harris]

I do think that Tesla have perhaps got so focused on robotaxi FSD that they forget how appealing the current system is.
Occasionally I have to make 200 or 500 mile trips. This is a major undertaking here in the UK, its a small place! When I make those long trips, I NEED autopilot. (I am one of the 0.1% in the UK who has FSD bought).
In theory, I could of course manually drive those trips, but being able to do them 90% on autopilot means that most of the time my legs, arms, hands are all totally relaxed. I'm not stressed at all. When I do have to take over, I'm super alert and its no big deal.
FWIW I am 54.
For me, a 500 mile trip in a day is just *too much*. I'll get a hotel room and crash for the night, and come back the next day. But with FSD, I can do it easily, assuming I have some podcasts to listen to. The difference is not only the price of a hotel stay, its reclaiming half a day of my life!

IMHO, anyone who is a sales rep/travels major miles every day, who is NOT paying for FSD is nuts, assuming they can afford it. Its a gamechanger. And I'm not on FSD beta, just have the European version.

Tesla DO NOT market this enough. They should have code that spots people who have a regular, long, boring road trip, and every few months should pop up and say "Hey, you really should get FSD. We are giving you a free trial of it today. But just today."
Then at the end of the trip, it should pop up and suggest they buy FSD (or subscribe).

 

[Snerruc]

I do think that Tesla have perhaps got so focused on robotaxi FSD that they forget how appealing the current system is.
Occasionally I have to make 200 or 500 mile trips. This is a major undertaking here in the UK, its a small place! When I make those long trips, I NEED autopilot. (I am one of the 0.1% in the UK who has FSD bought).
In theory, I could of course manually drive those trips, but being able to do them 90% on autopilot means that most of the time my legs, arms, hands are all totally relaxed. I'm not stressed at all. When I do have to take over, I'm super alert and its no big deal.
FWIW I am 54.
For me, a 500 mile trip in a day is just *too much*. I'll get a hotel room and crash for the night, and come back the next day. But with FSD, I can do it easily, assuming I have some podcasts to listen to. The difference is not only the price of a hotel stay, its reclaiming half a day of my life!

IMHO, anyone who is a sales rep/travels major miles every day, who is NOT paying for FSD is nuts, assuming they can afford it. Its a gamechanger. And I'm not on FSD beta, just have the European version.

Tesla DO NOT market this enough. They should have code that spots people who have a regular, long, boring road trip, and every few months should pop up and say "Hey, you really should get FSD. We are giving you a free trial of it today. But just today."
Then at the end of the trip, it should pop up and suggest they buy FSD (or subscribe).

I agree with you with the exception I use Autopilot. 800 miles no problem. I can’t use FSD as it insists on moving to the leftmost lane which is inhabited by people doing 95- 105. When you’re only doing 75, this can be downright dangerous as they often have short tempers. FSD has proven to be a waste of money to me.

 

[EQC_]

I agree with you with the exception I use Autopilot. 800 miles no problem. I can’t use FSD as it insists on moving to the leftmost lane which is inhabited by people doing 95- 105. When you’re only doing 75, this can be downright dangerous as they often have short tempers. FSD has proven to be a waste of money to me.

Not sure if it varies by region, but this sounds like something that could (mostly) be solved by adjusting the settings: Minimize lane changes, chill mode for FSD's aggressiveness setting, etc. Mine still sometimes makes illogical lane changes, but on the highway it will run in the middle lanes when that makes sense based on traffic and speed settings...

 

[philw1776]

OT OT OT
great.
rolling bombs, just wonderful, well thought out by Darwin awards

dump a few bottles of tincture of Iodine in the tank (without chokeing, we had a NH3 refrigerator, DO NOT CUT LINES!!)

NH3 plus I(odine) = (dangerous college pranks) =NI3
Nitrogen tri Iodide, is a contact explosive and _not_ to be messed with.

Nitrogen triiodide - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Forwarding post to FBI terrorist squad to interrogate poster

 

[philw1776]

I agree with you with the exception I use Autopilot. 800 miles no problem. I can’t use FSD as it insists on moving to the leftmost lane which is inhabited by people doing 95- 105. When you’re only doing 75, this can be downright dangerous as they often have short tempers. FSD has proven to be a waste of money to me.

This annoying and often illegal tendency needs to be fixed. A sorta Chill mode for left lane changes.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I agree with you with the exception I use Autopilot. 800 miles no problem. I can’t use FSD as it insists on moving to the leftmost lane which is inhabited by people doing 95- 105. When you’re only doing 75, this can be downright dangerous as they often have short tempers. FSD has proven to be a waste of money to me.

Yah. FSD is a fun widget around town but is not useable on the highway for the reasons you mentioned. Or at least not now although it was at one time. And that’s fine, we just switch back to autopilot for long trips.

No regrets buying FSD (twice) as it’s been fun but would never do it again as it’s just not useable and I doubt it will be for at least a decade or more based on the progress we have seen. It’s also worth exactly zero dollars on a trade in to tesla which I kind of find surprising but that’s just the way it is.

Jmho.

 

[Robertj]

I just watched a YouTube video
Brighter with Herbert interviewing Dan Ives , Wedbush analyst commenting on January Tesla reporting

I think he has a good summary of why the share price has languished since

My summary of his comments

Elon is a superb visionary and essential to guide the company forward

However the market needs someone to guide on the companies goals, ie how 2024 will monetize there tech gains

Car volumes everyone can guess 2.1m to 2.3m cars , however what drives profit is margins

Tesla should have given guidance for 2024 of margins to improve , ie by 2 % , due to input cost dropping ?

Tesla should have given guidance on FSD 12 , how will it increase Tesla’s revenue , no more people are buying it ?

Tesla should have given guidance on Optimus , ie how many will they build in 2024 for their factories ?


The weird thing to me is that Tesla internally will have these milestones !!!

 

[EVCollies]

Tunnels and Chunnels have been quite successful beneath bodies of water long before TBC was a thing.

Plus, they could then use Tesla vehicles instead of busses. (always looking for ways to increase our SP)

Boring Company will be below the water table at Giga Texas so we will know soon!

 

[heltok]

I just watched a YouTube video
Brighter with Herbert interviewing Dan Ives , Wedbush analyst commenting on January Tesla reporting

I think he has a good summary of why the share price has languished since

My summary of his comments

Elon is a superb visionary and essential to guide the company forward

However the market needs someone to guide on the companies goals, ie how 2024 will monetize there tech gains

Car volumes everyone can guess 2.1m to 2.3m cars , however what drives profit is margins

Tesla should have given guidance for 2024 of margins to improve , ie by 2 % , due to input cost dropping ?

Tesla should have given guidance on FSD 12 , how will it increase Tesla’s revenue , no more people are buying it ?

Tesla should have given guidance on Optimus , ie how many will they build in 2024 for their factories ?


The weird thing to me is that Tesla internally will have these milestones !!!

Whatever Tesla gives the media they will just do their best to pull apart. And imo it's more important what Tesla does that what they say, if Wallstreet want to leave money on the table that's up to them, in the long run what matters will be the real thing, not the perception.

I am fine with Tesla giving a vague guidance while executing towards 10-20M by 2030, while investing heavily into compute for robotaxi and optimus, while building new mega phacktories, new huge plants in mexico, lithium refining, LFP production etc. If wallstreet cannot see the writing on the wall for 2026-2030 that's their problem...

 

[Buckminster]

800 miles no problem

The European mind cannot comprehend this.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753868186015932605

 

[Buckminster]

I have requested a change of title to this thread - now includes dividends following FB pop yesterday.
TSLA buyback / dividends
This will ensure Tesla never do it as per popular demand - you're welcome!

 

[loquitur]

Elon also publically told everyone to never trade on margin. WS knows exactly what it takes to harvest those shares, and will pile on the FUD to get there whenever they can, and take advantage of anything they can. And even apart from that time when he sold shares, the stock price had rocketed up and down many many times before, especially in the early days, when no one at Tesla was making any inflammatory comments publicly or selling any shares.

It is financially pointless (but natural, I guess) for anyone who trades in options to complain about others when their gambles crash and burn. They have only themselves to blame. People aren't FORCED to buy more than they can afford. They choose to play a game they have no control over.

Taking personal responsibility is wise; that helps us learn and grow. Being wise enough to see what is in our control, and what is not, and acting accordingly, is even better. It's not easy, though.

 

[Unpilot]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1753868186015932605

Wait so you can transfer both!?!

 

[loquitur]

Elon also publically told everyone to never trade on margin. WS knows exactly what it takes to harvest those shares, and will pile on the FUD to get there whenever they can, and take advantage of anything they can. And even apart from that time when he sold shares, the stock price had rocketed up and down many many times before, especially in the early days, when no one at Tesla was making any inflammatory comments publicly or selling any shares.

It is financially pointless (but natural, I guess) for anyone who trades in options to complain about others when their gambles crash and burn. They have only themselves to blame. People aren't FORCED to buy more than they can afford. They choose to play a game they have no control over.

Taking personal responsibility is wise; that helps us learn and grow. Being wise enough to see what is in our control, and what is not, and acting accordingly, is even better. It's not easy, though.

First time I've heard about the Tesla employee margin call situation. Reminds me, dating myself,
of when a few Genentech emps, including managers got caught that way in the 1980s
when one of their first biotech drugs didn't gain approval.

As well, setting limit stops is not recommended for non-daytraders, as "Wally" routinely
"runs the stops" to scoop up shares. And, speaking of gambling, when will TSLA completely
exit its Bitcoin position, about the most unfiduciary thing I've heard of, besides being
cringey regarding fossil fuel use.

 

[navguy12]

I just watched a YouTube video
Brighter with Herbert interviewing Dan Ives , Wedbush analyst commenting on January Tesla reporting

I think he has a good summary of why the share price has languished since

My summary of his comments

Elon is a superb visionary and essential to guide the company forward

However the market needs someone to guide on the companies goals, ie how 2024 will monetize there tech gains

Car volumes everyone can guess 2.1m to 2.3m cars , however what drives profit is margins

Tesla should have given guidance for 2024 of margins to improve , ie by 2 % , due to input cost dropping ?

Tesla should have given guidance on FSD 12 , how will it increase Tesla’s revenue , no more people are buying it ?

Tesla should have given guidance on Optimus , ie how many will they build in 2024 for their factories ?


The weird thing to me is that Tesla internally will have these milestones !!!

Under promise. Over deliver.

 

[alhounos]

Whatever Tesla gives the media they will just do their best to pull apart. And imo it's more important what Tesla does that what they say, if Wallstreet want to leave money on the table that's up to them, in the long run what matters will be the real thing, not the perception.

I am fine with Tesla giving a vague guidance while executing towards 10-20M by 2030, while investing heavily into compute for robotaxi and optimus, while building new mega phacktories, new huge plants in mexico, lithium refining, LFP production etc. If wallstreet cannot see the writing on the wall for 2026-2030 that's their problem...

My TLDR takeaway of the recent SP crash and drama is that Tesla as a company is doing great.

The stock, however, was dramatically overpriced, and investors who bought in too high are now upset with Tesla (the Dan Ives of the world), when they should really be upset at themselves for buying a great company at a price that was just too high.

I include myself in this group. I don’t regret buying TSLA, I just bought it too high. I own my mistake and I believe Tesla will grow into the TSLA share price eventually.