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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Krugerrand
Meow
Well, we know what you’re doing with your precious time to save mankind.
Dude, you (almost) always beat me on price by a few bucks. (Only once did I win this contest. What... I didn't tell you? Ya, just a mental note
)
"Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.”
-Some random stock market dude
(I kinda just expected less of the folks here to make up the "fearful" segment)
-Some random stock market dude
(I kinda just expected less of the folks here to make up the "fearful" segment)
YOU... might actually be doing the smartest thing right now.
LOL...in the long term, this all means nothing. We just accumulate and accumulate, tune out all the noise. Tesla will execute and eventually will not be ignored.Dude, you (almost) always beat me on price by a few bucks. (Only once did I win this contest. What... I didn't tell you? Ya, just a mental note
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I am not, several folks have corrected your mistaken assumptions about how the various aspects of FSD work but you seem to dismiss them all with "Either I'm right or you should sell all your TSLA"
Which is not a productive response.
As I suggested a couple times now- you should take further discussion elsewhere. Weirdly your post then goes on to insist you don't have time to- but did have time to reply here for...some reason.
That some folks are also overly bullish without having done any deep dive into how this stuff works is not super surprising? I suspect if you looked back a few years now on the various releases of all previous major versions of FSD, you'd likewise find someone posting "RTs any minute now" with lots of likes. That's not terribly useful for determining how likely the prediction is to work out.
It's WHY if your thesis is based on technical (in the science sense, not the astrology TA sense) things you're far better off discussing and getting feedback on them in the technical forums here.
If by soonish you mean like, this year, your thesis is not going to work out well for you.
If by soonish you mean like, next 5 years, you've got a lot better shot.
Regardless- hopefully you do "find time" to present it over in the place deeper dives on this happen and you're open to hearing reasons your thoughts on things like "training in one place can't make it worse other places" are factually inaccurate.
Drumheller
Active Member
When TSLA archives a new local minimum, "it is all Elon's fault! Why can't he behave the way I want him to behave?"
When TSLA achieves a new local maximum, "It is because I'm a good investor and I'm being rewarded"
Yes, but also take out your calculator. Tesla merited a high valuation because of projected growth of earnings. Now analysts slash future earnings and then a P/E of 60 is very high. There also seems to be a lot of deflation psychology going on - I'd be happy to buy, but let's wait until tomorrow when it will be even cheaper.
Yes, after conversations with acquaintances, I suspect that this is one of the main reasons for the somewhat slightly slower growth for the time being. My compatriots, but others too, are simply (still) too stupid to think in Total Cost of Ownership. That will change soon.
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By soonish, I mean starting a robotaxi service in one or two cities in the next 1 to 3 years as I said earlier. The V12 architecture makes me confident that this can be achieved in that time frame. Earlier versions of FSD did not.
I never said training in one place can't make it worse. I said Tesla engineers are capable of preventing most regressions and fixing those that do occur. Basically, I'm saying that overfitting is a viable option and an obvious path forward.
Anyway, I truly don't have time for a long discussion about it now. But I will post in the other thread soon where we can go into more detail.
Did I miss something or is bringing up Elon's tweets and politics fair game now? I understand the mods are volunteers and can't be here all the time but we have some repeat offenders that could use a time out...
philw1776
Member
Having failed (lack of courage & attention) to sell some IRA shares Jan 1st and buy back in the spring, my next plan is to buy another tranch of 1,000 if stock approaches 100. I was fortunate enough to have sold shares near highs to buy my Model Y and to fund gifts. Playing with beau coup house money. I have faint in long term prospects but don't expect much in the short run years.
When I 1st posted here, a long time member excoriated me before exiting the Forum because I said something like I don't see growth until new products like Cybertruck, real FSD and some such else are released in volume. I stand by this but now adding in Optimus upside which is my reason for a 4 year outlook hold. Were Musk to leave, I'd probably sell all my IRA holdings. So called mean tweets but effective corporate leadership is OK by me.
When I 1st posted here, a long time member excoriated me before exiting the Forum because I said something like I don't see growth until new products like Cybertruck, real FSD and some such else are released in volume. I stand by this but now adding in Optimus upside which is my reason for a 4 year outlook hold. Were Musk to leave, I'd probably sell all my IRA holdings. So called mean tweets but effective corporate leadership is OK by me.
cliff harris
Member
Lots of possibilities:
- Semi mass production starting with impressive specs
- Big step change in progress of optimus
- FSD release in China and Europe
- Step-change in FSD take rate with V12 or V13
- Capitulation of some competitors. Lucid collapses, Rivian collapses.
- Major environmental catastrophe somewhere drives huge change in policy regarding transitions to EVs with subsidies galore.
- Cybertruck ramp acceleration and improved 4680s improve the specs and cut the price.
- Tesla just flat out buys a rival car company or a lithium mine.
As someone who has watched climate change closely for decades, 6) is the big one for me. Imagine hurricane Katrina, but instead of hitting New Orleans, it hits New York or San Francisco, and is way worse. 50,000 people dead in a day, and unanimous agreement by scientists that this is climate driven and will get way way worse.
Look at what impact 9/11 had. An environmental catastrophe that highlights the need to decarbonize would be similar, but way worse, and with more permanent impact. And you don't even have to think about the US. A major heatwave killing a lot of people in Europe could trigger a mass EU-wide response that makes the berlin factory a license to print money. EV-only mandates could come forward, not be pushed back.
I don't KNOW that this is a catalyst that will happen before 2025. I do know that with every ton of carbon we pump into the atmosphere it gets more likely. Its basically a one way bet. I want to be invested in the solution when the problem kicks the door down.
disclaimer: I'm 54, semi retired, and don't need any money for the next decade, so I can afford to take this view. YMMV if you are older, or need cash before 2025.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
People coming into the country was historically seen as a boon to the US.
At least until the primary reason for coming into the country became to take advantage of the plethora of social benefit programs, rather than to work hard and become a part of the growth of a nation.
The first principles viewpoint indicates that this availability of government largess allowing non-productive behavior is the root of the problem. As is sending armed people to the border.
The solution is to figure out a way to provide a basic income without having to rob Peter to pay Paul.
Eventually, the Tesla Mission and the coming disruption that essentially free energy brings will change economic aspects of how the entire world approaches concepts like poverty. But, we're probably half a century away, at least.
Tesla, for the win!
HODL
January sales numbers for these 2 regions are exceeding
Last year over the same time period.
China January 2024 tesla sales are 9.4% higher than 2023
Europe January 2024 tesla sales are 88% higher than 2023.
Any information on USA January sales?
If sales growth this year is slower, it yet has to manifested itself.
Actually this positive trend gives me confidence.
Last year over the same time period.
China January 2024 tesla sales are 9.4% higher than 2023
Europe January 2024 tesla sales are 88% higher than 2023.
Any information on USA January sales?
If sales growth this year is slower, it yet has to manifested itself.
Actually this positive trend gives me confidence.
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Just to clarify: The Belgian company car situation is NOT a temporary incentive, it is permanent. The current law is such that newly bought ICE (or hybrid) cars are not tax deductible. They used to be tax deductible for a certain percentage depending on emissions (between about 50% and 90%, with most cars probably around 65% to 70%), but not anymore.
The 100% deductibility for EV’s is valid for cars bought until 2026 and remains valid for 5 years from the purchase date on (so valid for the typical lease duration).
From 2027 on the deductibility does down each year until it reaches 67.5% in 2031 (again, you lock in the deductibility rate of the purchase year for 5 years).
So in 2036 we get the terminal situation that only EV’s are deducible, and only at a 67% rate.
That situation is basically the same tax rate as for ICE cars from before the law change.
Overall there’s probably little revenue loss (wrt company taxes) for the government as the temporary increased deductibility for EVs is compensated by the loss of deductibility of ICE cars. That means that there is no budgetary reason to change this law.
There may budgetary effects caused by fuel tax revenue going down. Sooner or later we’ll get a km-tax to compensate for that, and again, most likely ICE cars will pay more than EVs.
If you talk to the people in the Belgian streets about politics there’s only 1 thing most people agree on: it will take a very long time to form a new government after our elections in june. We’ll probably break our own world record of 541 days without government. The chance that the current law is modified (after we get new government) is IMO close to zero.
Which means that the current pro-EV situation will stay the same for quite a few years.
Tesla had 3.91% market share in januari and 3.36% overal in 2023. The januari market share is lower than the december 2023 market share of 5.38% because the sales of the top 3 (BMW, Audi and Mercedes) seem to peak in the begin of the year.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
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