I suspect Tesla will trade in the $180 to $300 range over the next couple of years. The only thing that gets it back to the upper end of that range is strong margin recovery and strong, high margin growth in the megapack business.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I suspect Tesla will trade in the $180 to $300 range over the next couple of years. The only thing that gets it back to the upper end of that range is strong margin recovery and strong, high margin growth in the megapack business.
MartinAustin
Active Member
By "major turnaround in the stock this year" what do you mean, up or down? It has gone nowhere in the last year.
Couldn't disagree more about waiting to invest. Now is exactly the time to deploy your available capital. The stock will be climbing once it is clear those cheaper cars are going to yield income. Wondering if you don't believe Tesla when they explain what is going on? They say they are "in a lull" between major expansion phases. Couldn't agree more. The Cybertruck and cheaper car will certainly enjoy some big production levels in the near future - just not yet. I remember Tesla explaining in an ER "demamd for Model Y has been so massive that we are delaying the Cybertruck to out our resources into expanding Model Y production." At the time, Model Y ordering wait times were nearly a year!!! Now, that has vaporised, and lo and behold the Model Y is the world's largest-selling vehicle of any type. Seems like Tesla were telling us the truth back in the day. So I believe them when they say they are in a lull. What vehicle have they produced that was not a hit? (I suppose you can debate about the Model X) The time to buy stock is not during a phase of success. It's before that phase of success - in a lull that looks (especially if you expose yourself to what Tim Higgins writes) like the company is going nowhere. i.e. NOW.
Here is a great review of the new Model 3 by MKB
If only Tesla would let the world know how good it is.
My 3 is fine (2018 w/ 85k miles) but I think its going to the kids as soon as Tesla brings these changes to the Y
If only Tesla would let the world know how good it is.
My 3 is fine (2018 w/ 85k miles) but I think its going to the kids as soon as Tesla brings these changes to the Y
'Always' is mostly hyperbole. A simple, highly-visible one-time ad has been shown to be highly effective for elevating a brand. This 1985 Superbowl ad still resonates today after 4 decades:
Let's see what their new L.A. ad working group* comes up with.
*personally, I'm rooting for Ross the Lemming...
Never seen this ad. I am sure super bowl ads resonate in the US and Canada. Not so sure it does much for the rest of the world. I guess the super bowl is some kind of sports event. How many in the US watches this? 20% or 50% of the potential market of buyers?
I think Tesla should do ads. Target 50 year olds with fat wallets who does not buy Tesla because they are ignorant. Just like my friends who wanted to go electric for the environment and bought a Mach-E. The car is OK but my Model Y is so much better. Now they want a Tesla.
But if Tesla should use 7 mill on superbowl? I do not know their budget. But for a limited audience it sounds expensive.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That's it? Toni, is that you?Wait...it's $410 after another 3:1 split right? please be specific, numbers matter!
The appropriate questions are (since stats matter): What is the 95% confidence interval? What are the error bars?
Wasn't there a huge surge in Google searches for Tesla immediately following (non Tesla)EV ads aired during the Superbowl a couple of years ago? Seems to indicate those ads do have an impact.
cliff harris
Member
A reminder, when thinking about all time highs, that a company many people on wall st think is actually a real competitor to Tesla (Ford) loses $47,000 ON EVERY EV THEY SELL.
Ford has to either:
My bet is one of the first two scenarios. And this will apply to Lucid, Rivian and many others. Tesla's margins are lower now, precisely because failling legacy auto companies are trying to compete by selling at a loss. That might have worked in 2016, but now now. Tesla is the one with the cash pile. Tesla are playing NICE. Elon could cut model 3/Y prices to run Tesla at a loss for a few years just to destroy the competition, but doesn't quite go that far (yet).
So to conclude, what will happen to lift the stock? A few quarters of terrible EV financials or catastrophic collapse in EV sales by Ford, GM, VW should do it. (Not mentioning Toyota as their EV efforts are irrelevant)
Ford has to either:
- Give up and accept they are just running a legacy company into the ground, which will have virtually zero sales in 2030-35 when many countries ban ICE vehicles. Maybe the P/E drops to 5 or lower?
- MASSIVELY increase the price of their EVs, at which point nobody buys them.
- Perform a stunning business and technological turnaround unlike anything they have ever accomplished, ever.
My bet is one of the first two scenarios. And this will apply to Lucid, Rivian and many others. Tesla's margins are lower now, precisely because failling legacy auto companies are trying to compete by selling at a loss. That might have worked in 2016, but now now. Tesla is the one with the cash pile. Tesla are playing NICE. Elon could cut model 3/Y prices to run Tesla at a loss for a few years just to destroy the competition, but doesn't quite go that far (yet).
So to conclude, what will happen to lift the stock? A few quarters of terrible EV financials or catastrophic collapse in EV sales by Ford, GM, VW should do it. (Not mentioning Toyota as their EV efforts are irrelevant)
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
I haven't seen that ad either, still haven't as I didn't play it. Granted, some of the ads at that game are well done, but unless I go to youtube and spend my time viewing them, I'd never see them.
One thing I have seen is postings in this forum regarding how EV Stuporbowl Ads from legacy lead to spiked "Tesla" searches without Tesla spending a dime. (ninja'd by @SmokyPeat )
For Tesla, a pretty good SB ad response may still not require them to run an ad at all as the S-curve steepens towards going orbital.
As for raising awareness and fighting FUD, there are better ways to go about that with a better chance of reaching the target audience, rather than assuming a significant enough number of the viewers of the game are also folks interested enough in BEVs to warrant the expense.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... or raise the price in the U.S. by $1,000 (the Model 3+ sells itself right now, time to take the margin benefits).
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So called temporary price cuts in US for Model Y.... Inventory was already discounted more than that and still is... more price cuts are coming for sure... plenty margin to dip into.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Superbowl is to America what the World Cup is to the ROTW. It matters, all year long. And possibly for 55 years: (ask the next American you meet about the '69 Jets)
"The New York Jets, led by quarterback Joe Namath, rocked the sports world and the country on Jan. 12, 1969, by becoming the first American Football League team to defeat an NFL team with their 16-7 Super Bowl III victory over the heavily favored Baltimore Colts at Miami's Orange Bowl."
Super Bowl III 50th Anniversary Celebration - New York Jets www.newyorkjets.com › schedule › super-bowl-iii
Even if your not old enough to remember the game itself, if you've an American you have heard of "Broadway Joe".
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Perhaps you haven't noticed, but in N. America governments have surreptitiously 'moved-the-goalposts' by inserting the word 'hybrid' into their legislation banning cars which are not 'EVs'.
The Jeep hybrid SUV which has exactly 23 miles of all-electric range gets the exact same $7,500 Federal rebate as most Tesla cars, except the ones that don't qualify because of battery source, or MSRP being above the limit (like Model S)
The Market will decide when people vote with their wallets. Gov'ts only respond to campaign contributions and large donors (at least here in N.America). Which by the way is the same reason that the U.S. Gov't is acting to slow or impede Tesla: that's what their donors ask for.
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Hi, Unk45 --Here in this thread and in the TE specific ones we tend the ficus in Tesla as though there are not credible competitors. These are not BEV. Companies such as Huawei (only in the BESS business for four years but already a major factor in utility-level and large commercial. BYD has had fully integrated solutions, highly scalable. This article just scratches the surface:
Siemens, Honeywell and many others are moving as Huawei is, from a utility-centric perspective.
Battery Energy Storage System Market - Global Size, Share & Industry Analysis [Latest]
The global Battery Energy Storage System Market Size was valued at USD 5.4 Billion in 2023 and to reach USD 17.5 Billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4% from 2022 to 2028.www.marketsandmarkets.com
As Elon has said growth is so rapid that almost infinite capacity can be absorbed.
With all the growth it is very hard to forecast, but much of the growth is coming from places unconsidered by most vendors and analysts. Remember Huawei entered the market only four years ago and instantly became a major player because of utility installed base of other equipment. Both Honeywell and Siemens are similar. Just think of LG and Samsung, well established in numerous utility services and products.
Tesla needs, quite urgently to establish TE jglobally, with vehicles to follow. There is much to learn from Huawei and BYD precedent, primarily in distribution priority tactics, not so much in technology perhaps. The next major move really should involve heat pump incorporation in both commercial and residential solution packages.
What are we waiting for? We have the pieces, all of them, including factory BESS plus energy management.
Thanks! I'd somehow missed Huawei's involvement in the space.
FWIW, here's a capsule of SunGrow, which is apparently the current market leader:
SZ:300274 Financials | Sungrow Power Supply Co Ltd - Investing.com
This page provides a brief financial summary of the SZ:300274 financials, as well as the most significant critical numbers from each of its financial reports.
~$20B market cap, looks to be doing about $60B in revenue up about 3x since 2019,, ~15x PE, 0.33 P/S. The read through to the valuation of Tesla's BESS division is unclear. SunGrow does a lot more than storage. It's also getting Chinese valuations, not US valuations. Still, I'm having a hard time getting to more than say $20/share for Tesla BESS; maybe it's worth $100B down the road, but not now.
Yours,
RP
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Spacep0d
Active Member
The Superbowl is not just a sporting event, it's an event and an occasion where people gather for watch parties, fans and non-fans alike. The commercials are a feature of this event and a meta-event unto themselves. For some, they're more interesting than the game.
The Superbowl is also a very American event and Tesla is the most American car company by parts, locations, labor, etc. I think a lot of people aren't aware of this.
There's so much FUD out there (and for so long) that a simple ad explaining the important features of Tesla's EVs, including the benefit of North America's best charging network, would go a long way. As others have mentioned, the ad could be light on words and easily understood by anyone, including young people (its biggest future market). We already know how much kids love Tesla since they tend to be free of deranging ideological baggage but for parental mimicry where it exists.
Finally, Superbowl ads live forever on the Internet and the best ones can go viral. Some people seek out ways to watch the ads without having to watch a football game. And, we know that when non-Tesla EV ads air, Tesla sees a spike in Google searches as people tend to comparison shop.
Tesla wins either way simply by virtue of being the best EV for the best price, with the best charging network by a huge margin.
The Superbowl would be an ideal time for Tesla to tackle some FUD whilst showing the beauty and superiority of its vehicles.
The Superbowl is also a very American event and Tesla is the most American car company by parts, locations, labor, etc. I think a lot of people aren't aware of this.
There's so much FUD out there (and for so long) that a simple ad explaining the important features of Tesla's EVs, including the benefit of North America's best charging network, would go a long way. As others have mentioned, the ad could be light on words and easily understood by anyone, including young people (its biggest future market). We already know how much kids love Tesla since they tend to be free of deranging ideological baggage but for parental mimicry where it exists.
Finally, Superbowl ads live forever on the Internet and the best ones can go viral. Some people seek out ways to watch the ads without having to watch a football game. And, we know that when non-Tesla EV ads air, Tesla sees a spike in Google searches as people tend to comparison shop.
Tesla wins either way simply by virtue of being the best EV for the best price, with the best charging network by a huge margin.
The Superbowl would be an ideal time for Tesla to tackle some FUD whilst showing the beauty and superiority of its vehicles.
Wait, I though the Uber bulls were saying that the point of sale EV credit would boost Model Y demand?
There has been no significant boost in Model Y production.
Interest rates have not increased any further.
So all that can really explain it is…
Demand issues.
These days, you can watch NFL games and the superbowl pretty much anywhere in the world but the audience for the superbowl is much smaller outside the U.S. and besides different companies have the broadcasting rights in different markets so there is no universal ad buy for the Super Bowl or even truly global events like World Cup. The 7 million cost being touted is a U.S only ad buy. (Canada is probably included but I’m not sure)
In the U.S., typically around half of adults watch at least some portion of the broadcast. In the key 30-55 demographic, a majority watch the game. It is literally the biggest TV event in the United States and - this can be not be stated enough - the ads are part of why people watch. This year will almost certainly break Super Bowl viewing records due to the Taylor Swift effect.
All this is not to say Tesla should do it but many of the arguments against being raised kind of miss the point. The audience is not limited; no one would pay $7 million for a limited audience. Sure it is US only, but the U.S. is arguably Tesla’s single most important market due to the market size and competition dynamics.
Great idea!/s perhaps just burning that excess $& million would be just as ineffective and even more exhibitionistic./sWell, $7M for 30 sec is not "cheap" but Tesla can certainly afford one such Ad, especially if it has a 'QR' code to take your smart phone to the order page! (Tesla is also buying insight into the effect of National advertising).
Super Bowl 30-second ad costs 2024 | Statista
Advertisers spent seven million U.S. dollars on average to air a 30-second-long commercial during the Super Bowl LVI broadcast in 2023.www.statista.com
Cheers!
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Okay, with that in mind, maybe thirty seconds of a big Tesla "T" staring them down. No voice-over, no action, no comedy, no heart-strings being tugged. Just the T.
Considering the hype around the game's ads, this would leave an indelible mark on the viewers' subconscious simply because they focused intently upon it expecting something to happen.
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