Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

This year will almost certainly break Super Bowl viewing records due to the Taylor Swift effect.

Who is Taylor Swift?

Are they an analyst for some investment firm?

 

[Krugerrand]

I guess the super bowl is some kind of sports event. How many in the US watches this?

It was some kind of sports event. This year it’s some kind of mega popstar, love story, air travel, sports event.

How many have watched in the past isn’t relevant. What is relevant to the league (and perhaps to advertisers) is that this year more people than ever will be watching, including a demographic who originally thought it was ‘some kind of sports event’.

 

[Krugerrand]

Who is Taylor Swift?

Are they an analyst for some investment firm?

Dude, even the redneck hillbillies living under rocks on the mountain top next door know who Taylor Swift is. And they wish they were her because they would then get to spend time with Travis and Jason.

Side note: I’m pretty sure Jason at least has a Tesla. I recently watched his documentary and if I remember correctly his Tesla appeared in it.

 

[unk45]

How many current heat pump manufacturers offer a single sourced set of integrated products to provide energy production and storage, energy arbitrage, BEV charging, HVAC operation, water heating, and more?

I seriously doubt any existing heat pump provider will be offering something like this anytime soon. The scale of their R&D to develop an integrated set of products would take years to develop.

Tesla already has the engineering completed, and examples are in production that provide these services currently in their existing auto and energy products. All that need happen is rolling them into a turn-key product.

Builders would adopt this technology as an easy way to provide a single source supplier offering all of these products/services, integrated together for maximum efficiency and likely reduced cost. How attractive will such an integrated package of customizable products be for new construction projects, and as a retrofit into existing locations? This has applications found spanning from residential to commercial to industrial scale projects.

Fortunately, just because a lot of people are unable to envision such applications and deployment within an industry it doesn't mean that nobody can. Tesla has a significant number of the "can envision" folks concentrated into a single company that has already solved for these.

All that needs be done is combine this existing technology together into a scalable, easy to manufacture product that can be quickly and economically integrated into construction and renovation projects.

Oh, and the current heat-pump manufacturers probably aren't working toward a mission to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. Whatever their stated mission might be, it is unlikely to be a motivating factor for their employees to crank out a disruptive system the way that Tesla has a long history of doing.

Do Hitachi and Fujitsu count? I guess not. Nor the dozens more. Many of the most innovative suppliers just don't promote much in slow-to-adopt protectionist market like USA. Not being sarcastic. My present building project has a short list of eleven (11) providers, although not all do a/c, hot water/pool heating/house heating plus...some, Chinese ones offer all that plus EV charging (and the EV) solar panels, inverters, power controllers and pre packaged integration of all the above. factually most of the heat pump suppliers have only air or eater and usually emphasize heating functions.

All of this is changing by the week (NOT exaggeration) so what is true today may be obsolete soon after, just like solar panels, perovskite is coming very, very soon, so bifacial N-type ++ is the solar panel story today. I had a bid for 20% efficient panels a few weeks ago, then BYD stared production their new N-callss bifocals ++ right here in Brazil, with total packing of all I need for 2/3 the pie of two months ago, but better packing and support.

I'm no expert although my first off grid project was 35 years ago. I still haven't chosen a supplier(s) because the offers improve regularly. They seem to eb stabilizing for the monet so I'll order soon.

Just realize the USA is getting 'stale-of-the-art'. State-of-the-art is going elsewhere, even to Kenya resorts.

 

[unk45]

Superbowl is to America what the World Cup is to the ROTW. It matters, all year long. And possibly for 55 years: (ask the next American you meet about the '69 Jets)

"The New York Jets, led by quarterback Joe Namath, rocked the sports world and the country on Jan. 12, 1969, by becoming the first American Football League team to defeat an NFL team with their 16-7 Super Bowl III victory over the heavily favored Baltimore Colts at Miami's Orange Bowl."​

Super Bowl III 50th Anniversary Celebration - New York Jets www.newyorkjets.com › schedule › super-bowl-iii

Even if your not old enough to remember the game itself, if you've an American you have heard of "Broadway Joe".

View attachment 1017192

I thought the primary Jet of 1969 was the B747 capturing world imagination only a year after first deliveries.

 

[hobbes]

Shell Is Immediately Closing All Of Its California Hydrogen Stations

The oil giant is one of the big players in hydrogen globally, but even it can't make its operations work here. All seven of its California stations will close immediately.

insideevs.com

 

[unk45]

Who is Taylor Swift?

Are they an analyst for some investment firm?

No, she was Tom Swift's sister./s
OTOH she sang along with tracy Chapman so she cannot be all and even though I'm several generations too old to appreciate her otherwise.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1756401767971950823

For those interested in the football. On the field Patrick Mahomes is Quarterback for Taylor's beau's team Kansas City Chiefs. He is a real character and fun to watch in "Quarterback" on Netflix.

 

[Tony73]

Okay, with that in mind, maybe thirty seconds of a big Tesla "T" staring them down. No voice-over, no action, no comedy, no heart-strings being tugged. Just the T.

Considering the hype around the game's ads, this would leave an indelible mark on the viewers' subconscious simply because they focused intently upon it expecting something to happen.

How about a simple voice over message:

“Bet you think Teslas are expensive. FACT, The Tesla model 3 and Y cost less than the average new car. FACT: Tesla model Y is the best selling car in the world and comes with $7500 POS tax credit. What do you think now ?”

Is delivering that message to over half of America’s 30-55 years olds worth $7million.

Edit: I’m undecided between Mr T or James Earl Jones for the voiceover

 

[geometro]

Ummm, not worth reading. It's written by Tim Higgins who has always been on a mission to smear Tesla and Elon, no matter what events are taking place

Don’t know the author, but the article states many things that are consistent with what we can see… distracted Elon, lack of alignment with climate change (at least in contrast to prior alignment)… leading to a “what’s next for Tesla?” quandary.

 

[Krugerrand]

How about a simple voice over message:

“Bet you think Teslas are expensive. FACT, The Tesla model 3 and Y cost less than the average new car. FACT: Tesla model Y is the best selling car in the world and comes with $7500 POS tax credit. What do you think now ?”

Is delivering that message to over half of America’s 30-55 years olds worth $7million.

Edit: I’m undecided between Mr T or James Earl Jones for the voiceover

But it’s electric. Only gets 100 miles per charge. Takes 2 hours to charge 50%. Can’t be driven in the winter. Can’t tow anything larger than a tricycle especially in the winter where it loses 50% charge. And the CEO hates Jews and is on drugs.

^That’s just for starters.

30 seconds isn’t long enough to change a lot of minds, especially minds that have already fallen for the bs and likely inebriated in the moment. Avocados from Mexico, though? Sign them up because it’s a catchy jingle.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I thought the primary Jet of 1969 was the B747 capturing world imagination only a year after first deliveries.

Weekend OT:

Spoiler: Fastest rubber band ever

Fun fact: the fastest I've ever travelled is 775 mph ground speed in a Boeing 747-400 in Sep 1997. Originally, my airline had assigned a vanilla 767 for the mid-range distance flt from Honolulu to Vancouver. Alas, the rubber band broke and the airline told us they would put us up in a hotel overnight instead. Hey, free dinner and a soft bed in Waikiki, 'A' ole pilikia...

However, around 11 pm the concierge knocked on my hotel room door and said "Change of plan! We've arranged for a replacement airplane, and we take off in 1 hour! Please make your way to the buses now waiting in the parkade".

The replacement was the Boeing 747-475, the pride of Canadian Airlines, sporting 4 mighty Rolls-Royce RB211 turbofans. This A/C had just flown from Montreal to Vancouver, and was retasked to fetch us from Hawaii before it's planned return to Montreal in the morning (I presume w. a crew change).

When we arrived at the departure terminal at PHNL, we were hurried through security (pre-9/11) and escorted directly to our assigned seats. After a high-speed taxi, the plane did a rolling left turn onto the departure runway, throttles to the wall, and climbed like a fighter jet to FL430 in 13 minutes! (we only took on fuel for a 2700 nm leg + IFR reserves, and had only the reduced # of pax aboard that would fit in a much smaller 767-300) so we were well below gross. To say that ship climbed like a homesick angel is not to trivialize the feat: it was breathtaking, visceral in the way only pilots can appreciate.

Once at cruise altitude, the Flt Crew steered us 500 miles North to intercept the jet stream, blowing a fierce 175 kts at 43,000' altitude. The planned time of flt was too short to show a movie, so throughout the flight the on-board screens displayed a moving map w. Direction + Ground Speed. Just about 275 miles West of Vancouver Island, the map showed a groundspeed of 775 mph, which was the combination of true airspeed and component tail.

Shortly thereafter, the engines went remarkably quiet, and you felt a slight drop in pressure in your ears as engine bleed air decreased. We maintained altitude to reduce airspeed for 25 miles, then the plane began its decent although we were still 250 miles West of CYVR. Now don't say there's no Cowboys left in the West; those 2 jocks brought that plane down at avg 3,000' per min all the way down to 6,000' to join the CASDY THREE Arrival for Rwy 26L.

Wheels up in Honolulu to wheels down in Vancouver: 4 hrs 5 min. Distance 2,750 nm. Avg speed: 675 mph. The Aircrew hustled us off the plane even as the maintenance staff was tidying up cushions and vacuuming carpets. I was still standing in line waiting to enter Customs as I saw our magnificent Canadian Goose push back from the jetway and taxi out for its scheduled departure for Montreal, only 40 min behind schedule. What an awesome marvel of engineering! What a team!

And what a great rubber-band-break story!
Paging @Papafox 'your turn'.

P.S. The a/c C-GMWW was sold to Air Canada, resold & retired, and now broken up
P.P.S. The last "Jumbo Jet" aircraft, a 747-8F for Atlas Air registered N863GT, rolled off the production line on December 6, 2022, and was delivered on January 31, 2023.
End of an era, the fond memories remain...

 

[loquitur]

'Always' is mostly hyperbole. A simple, highly-visible one-time ad has been shown to be highly effective for elevating a brand. This 1985 Superbowl ad still resonates today after 4 decades:

Let's see what their new L.A. ad working group* comes up with.
*personally, I'm rooting for Ross the Lemming...

Curious why you didn't highlight the "1984" ad, the original viral Chiat/Day/[email protected] collaboration.

 

[Tony73]

But it’s electric. Only gets 100 miles per charge. Takes 2 hours to charge 50%. Can’t be driven in the winter. Can’t tow anything larger than a tricycle especially in the winter where it loses 50% charge. And the CEO hates Jews and is on drugs.

^That’s just for starters.

30 seconds isn’t long enough to change a lot of minds, especially minds that have already fallen for the bs and likely inebriated in the moment. Avocados from Mexico, though? Sign them up because it’s a catchy jingle.

And that is perfectly fine. If 100 million adults in the key demographic are watching, let’s assume 60% cant afford a Tesla even with the tax credit.
Of the remaining 40 million, assume half already know what a Tesla costs and will learn nothing new from the ad.

Of the 20 million left, assume 15 million fall in the category you describe and would never consider electric or Tesla.

The ad just educated 5 million potential buyers that Tesla’s are not as expensive they thought.
Assume 5% will purchase a new car this year and you just generated 250K possible sales leads. That is $28 per sales lead. Ask anyone in the car sales business if that is expensive.

There is a significant proportion of potential Tesla buyers out there who think Teslas are much more expensive than they really are.

 

[elasalle]

Wait, I though the Uber bulls were saying that the point of sale EV credit would boost Model Y demand?

There has been no significant boost in Model Y production.

Interest rates have not increased any further.

So all that can really explain it is…

Demand issues.

Took the superbowl ad funds and gave direct discounts to customers


I guess SP gonna be supporting the Chiefs(red) on Monday…

 

[EQC_]

Mengy said:
Elon could die suddenly and Tesla could fall apart.

Why do people keep repeating this? Tesla is mature enough and has plenty of talented executives to take over in that scenario. Elon has even been wrong on major issues and corrected by his executive team; e.g. the executive team convincing Elon not to put all the eggs into the Robotaxi but to simultaneously develop the Model 2.

Slight adjustment:

Elon could suddenly die or even just step down from Tesla, and the same journalists and analysts currently saying Elon is ruining the company and killing the stock would instantly be telling everybody that, without Elon, the company is doomed.

There would be a huge pile-on, and the stock price would definitely drop tremendously.

Naturally, nobody stops buying cars or batteries just because one guy at a company dies...so production and sales would continue (and grow).

We would have confidence that the drop would only last until the rest of the Tesla team made it plainly obvious that the company was still made up of 100,000+ driven people on a solid mission...but it would probably stay lower than it should for longer than it should.

 

[alhounos]

Took the superbowl ad funds and gave direct discounts to customers


I guess SP gonna be supporting the Chiefs(red) on Monday…

I understand that you’re joking but I did the math and $7mil divided by 0.5mil US sales would be a $14 discount per car.

What a perfect demonstration of how dumb Tesla’s price cuts and refusal to advertise really is.

 

[hobbes]

Nice new footage of last spaceship flight ahead of next try (vehicle stacked, WDR expected, road clousures intact for Mo-Wed).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1755636732005872066

Maybe good to have something uncontroversial for the weekend..

 

[Krugerrand]

And that is perfectly fine. If 100 million adults in the key demographic are watching, let’s assume 60% cant afford a Tesla even with the tax credit.
Of the remaining 40 million, assume half already know what a Tesla costs and will learn nothing new from the ad.

Of the 20 million left, assume 15 million fall in the category you describe and would never consider electric or Tesla.

The ad just educated 5 million potential buyers that Tesla’s are not as expensive they thought.
Assume 5% will purchase a new car this year and you just generated 250K possible sales leads. That is $28 per sales lead. Ask anyone in the car sales business if that is expensive.

There is a sugnificant proportion of potential Tesla buyers out there who think Tesla’s are much more expensive than they are.

Those are some optimistic numbers you pulled out of the Underworld.

Superbowl ads work (maybe/sort of) because people already know the brands and have already been pounded for literally years at every turn.

Have you asked yourself why companies bend over backwards to come up with Superbowl ads that will shock, are hilarious, or in some way awe the audience that is already exhausted?

Superbowl ads are not for education.

Not even sure why this is a topic we’re discussing for yet another Superbowl. It’s hypothetical at best. Tesla isn’t advertising conventionally at all and isn’t tomorrow.

 

[jerry33]

The Superbowl is not just a sporting event, it's an event and an occasion where people gather for watch parties, fans and non-fans alike. The commercials are a feature of this event and a meta-event unto themselves. For some, they're more interesting than the game.

And here I thought that was the day you turned your TV off.