Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

And yet they didn’t do the Model 3 refresh in Shanghai and Fremont at the same time.

So, until they actually do what you suggest, I’ll assume they won’t (for any number of reasons I can think of off the top of my head) until they actually do.

You are comparing apples to oranges.

In the model3 refresh case, Shanghai was the first. That derisked the ramp. Then Fremont followed. It makes no sense to ramp number 1 and 2 at the same time.

In the gen3 case, GigaTx will be first. Once that is ramped, it is extremely likely Mexico, Shanghai and Germany will follow as quickly as possible and in unison to the extent possible. There is no reason to do them in sequence since they are copy -paste of gigaTx.
That is the quickest path to ramping gen3 globally.

Like I said, we’ve seen this before. Model Y ramp overlapped in Texas and Europe. Easy to do since neither was the first to build the model.

 

[Tony73]

She died in a car accident, why mention Tesla. If it were a Bronco ,
The car make would not have been mentioned.

New reports of celebrity car accidents and DUIs do tend to feature the car brand especially when it’s an expensive car.
Everyone knows Paul Walker died in a Porsche and Princess Diana in a Mercedes

 

[durkie]

You made a bunch of assumptions, some of them may very well turn out to be true, others not so much. I do have my opinion about how much value of such mental exercises have, but it's irrelevant to this thread and I'll just keep it to myself.


assumptions


assumption; and what year?


etc. etc.

I don't understand -- is this supposed to be some kind of dunk on @Zaddy Daddy 's post? Are the assumptions bad? Why?

None of us knows what's going to happen. We all have mental models and we're all making guesses about what we think is likely and possible. The original post even said "let's say...", outlining that they were assuming certain production numbers, margins, ASPs, etc..

People post financial models and end-of-quarter estimates here all the time which are also just "assumptions, assumptions". What's the issue here?

 

[Tony73]

I don't understand -- is this supposed to be some kind of dunk on @Zaddy Daddy 's post? Are the assumptions bad? Why?

None of us knows what's going to happen. We all have mental models and we're all making guesses about what we think is likely and possible. The original post even said "let's say...", outlining that they were assuming certain production numbers, margins, ASPs, etc..

People post financial models and end-of-quarter estimates here all the time which are also just "assumptions, assumptions". What's the issue here?

Opinions on an investor forum ! The gall !

 

[MC3OZ]

You are comparing apples to oranges.

In the model3 refresh case, Shanghai was the first. That derisked the ramp. Then Fremont followed. It makes no sense to ramp number 1 and 2 at the same time.

In the gen3 case, GigaTx will be first. Once that is ramped, it is extremely likely Mexico, Shanghai and Germany will follow as quickly as possible and in unison to the extent possible. There is no reason to do them in sequence since they are copy -paste of gigaTx.
That is the quickest path to ramping gen3 globally.

Like I said, we’ve seen this before. Model Y ramp overlapped in Texas and Europe. Easy to do since neither was the first to build the model.

Two limitations are parts and equipment supply, with Gen3 Tesla are making more of their own equipment... equipment with long lead times could be ordered in advance.

The stated aim was production volumes of 20 Million vehicles per year by 2030, which Elon recently affirmed as difficult but possible.

I suggest that one reason why it is difficult is that parts and raw materials supply has to keep up with the pace,

Building new production lines at 2 year intervals would give no hope of hitting the target...

If the target is say an additional 15 million vehicles 2026-2030, that is additional capacity of 3 million per year.. which is probably 6 at least additional lines per year..

There are other issues, construction, permits, workforce (excluding Optimus), etc.

 

[spacerfc]

Well, Elon is predicting that our grid won't be able support AI power demand within two years.

Well that's why Amazon is building nuclear powered data centers: Amazon buys nuclear-powered data center from Talen

 

[JustSaying]

So my wife's car was hit, 4 airbags went off, and I'm looking at replacement cars.

TSLA is too low for me to just buy a Tesla without considering cost of insurance so I'm researching insurance.

4 of the 5 most expensive cars to insure are EVs and the 2 most expensive are Tesla.

Even if you don't think Tesla insurance is a direct money maker for TSLA, it clearly affects cost of ownership and thus affordability for lower income buyers to get into a Tesla. So I'm saying if Tesla insurance is run near 0 profit it still will increase profitability of TSLA by way of increasing demand for cars they produce, and the effect that has on pricing of the car to begin with.

View attachment 1026389

My Model S Plaid insured through Tesla in OC California is $1,848 per year. The lowest quote l got from other insurers was over $1k more.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Well that's why Amazon is building nuclear powered data centers: Amazon buys nuclear-powered data center from Talen

The Talen Susquehanna nuclear plant has been in operation since 1983. So the change in ownership really isn't adding any capacity to the grid.

 

[Krugerrand]

You are comparing apples to oranges.

In the model3 refresh case, Shanghai was the first. That derisked the ramp. Then Fremont followed. It makes no sense to ramp number 1 and 2 at the same time.

And yet you want them to start new models at multiple factories at once. Nothing to derisk for that, huh?

 

[MC3OZ]

And yet you want them to start new models at multiple factories at once. Nothing to derisk for that, huh?

It is more like a copy-and-paste of a model that has already been made at at least one factory, using exactly the same production equipment.

Any new model will initially be made in one factory, and when that process is mature, it can be copied to other factories...

All depends on their level of urgency and ambition, and external factors which might limit what is possible,

 

[Tony73]

It is more like a copy-and-paste of a model that has already been made at at least one factory, using exactly the same production equipment.

Any new model will initially be made in one factory, and when that process is mature, it can be copied to other factories...

All depends on their level of urgency and ambition, and external factors which might limit what is possible,

Hopefully the schedule for gen3 looks something like this:

June 2025: Start of production in GigaTx while installing tooling in Mexico, Shanghai and Berlin

June 2026: GigaTx ramped to full capacity. Start of production in Mexico, Shanghai and Berlin.

Q1 2027: Gen3 ramped in Mexico, Shanghai, Berlin. Total capacity at 3 to 4 million units.

 

[Tim S]

and... how does someone program both sets of key cards together? Thx

It's in the manual...

https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_eu/GUID-E004FAB7-1C71-448F-9492-CACF301304D2.html#:~:text=Although%20you%20can%20use%20the,one%20vehicle%20at%20a%20time.

 

[Krugerrand]

It is more like a copy-and-paste of a model that has already been made at at least one factory, using exactly the same production equipment.

That’s not what he said. It’s what I was saying.

And we know Tesla doesn’t exactly copy and paste. They make one iteration at one place and then improve on it at the next. And so on.

Any new model will initially be made in one factory, and when that process is mature, it can be copied to other factories...

Again, he didn’t say that. I suggested it would be done that way given what they’ve done to date. He’s suggesting something else entirely, including the post right above.

 

[AudubonB]

New reports of celebrity car accidents and DUIs do tend to feature the car brand especially when it’s an expensive car.
Everyone knows Paul Walker died in a Porsche and Princess Diana in a Mercedes

Well, I do now.

SOME of us do have built-in filters regarding useless information. So-called celebrity (¿what are they celebrating?) “news” gets blocked by the coarsest screen. Anyway, who is/was Paul Walker? No, I truly do not wish to find out.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well, I do now.

SOME of us do have built-in filters regarding useless information. So-called celebrity (¿what are they celebrating?) “news” gets blocked by the coarsest screen. Anyway, who is/was Paul Walker? No, I truly do not wish to find out.

Car people know who Paul Walker was. He would have appreciated a Tesla.

 

[Linkmeup]

If Tesla kept the entire $1.5B BTC investment up until now (rather than sold 75% at the end of Q2 2022)...

Elon Musk-Led Tesla's Bitcoin Investment Rakes In $230M In Unrealized Profit Since BTC ETF Introduction By Benzinga

Elon Musk-Led Tesla's Bitcoin Investment Rakes In $230M In Unrealized Profit Since BTC ETF Introduction

uk.investing.com

 

[ruralectric]

TSLA might see a small bump if starship makes it to orbit this week.

I've been following TSLA and SpaceX since 2013. I've never seen a bump in the stock that could in any way be associated with a successful SpaceX launch or landing, including the very first successful F9 landing on a drone ship. Sure, a successful integrated Starship flight will be huge for SpaceX and set the bar for the industry, but so was the first successful landing of an orbital class booster. Just sayin.

 

[Ellec]

Hopefully the schedule for gen3 looks something like this:

June 2025: Start of production in GigaTx while installing tooling in Mexico, Shanghai and Berlin

June 2026: GigaTx ramped to full capacity. Start of production in Mexico, Shanghai and Berlin.

Q1 2027: Gen3 ramped in Mexico, Shanghai, Berlin. Total capacity at 3 to 4 million units.

I think it will be something like that, fingers crossed. That's why I think the SP will be bashed around the next year or two and then will take a big leg up similar to Model 3 ramp, the CT ramping and/or interest rate cuts could cause a increase imo. Next few years are a great time to accumulate for the long term. With this mindset I actually am glad when the price falls a bit and disappointed when it rises especially if just before my monthly buy.

 

[Ellec]

I've been following TSLA and SpaceX since 2013. I've never seen a bump in the stock that could in any way be associated with a successful SpaceX launch or landing, including the very first successful F9 landing on a drone ship. Sure, a successful integrated Starship flight will be huge for SpaceX and set the bar for the industry, but so was the first successful landing of an orbital class booster. Just sayin.

I think it will be seen as "See Elon knows what he is doing and his success continues" which may shut up some FUDsters. But don't see it causing a major move the SP.

 

[Usain]

Well, Elon is predicting that our grid won't be able support AI power demand within two years. He also predicted that we'd be in a global recession right now, though. So....

Elon Musk: AI will run out of electricity and transformers in 2025

"I've never seen any technology advance faster than this." The chip shortage may be behind us, but AI and EVs are expanding at such a rapacious rate that the world will face supply crunches in electricity and transformers next year, says Elon Musk.

newatlas.com

I'll address the elephant in the room.

Between AI, crypto and EVs, we have created huge new demand for electricity. We will never reduce emissions if renewables can't keep up. Coal and natural gas plants will still be profitable if demand keeps electricity prices high.

The same could be true for gas-powered cars. If electricity prices are too high, EVs are less compelling.

Will AI and crypto sabotage the mission?