Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I think - and I'm not an expert so feel free to disregard - that the price action so far this year has to due with lack of guidance. Jonas and maybe Gary Black (I get them all confused) said Tesla held an investor day and reading the tea leaves, they're suggesting that Tesla forecasted to them for minimal growth in 2024, hence a bunch of revisions down in estimates.

So, yes, Q1 looks like it'll come in below the 490k-500k that many were anticipating just a couple months ago, but in addition it sounds like it'll be tough to achieve 2m units in FY2024 (per @Troy). This is causing analysts to further reduce their out year estimates, to the extent they model beyond 2025.

Imo (which is, admittedly, worth nothing) we're in for a bumpy ride sideways or even down until a couple of the following start to occur - stabilized to even increased gross margins over a couple quarters, a clear timeline of Gen 2 ~$25k vehicle, clear progress with a stated timeline on Optimus (plus anticipated pricing, production, etc.), and/or clear plans in preparation of the rollout of a robotaxi network. Even hitting on a couple of those I think would boost the stock price, but for now it's mostly vague or unclear on all of them - at least for 2024. We probably start seeing some movement there in 2025 with CT ramping to something material to the financials.

Again, just my opinion, I'm not an expert, and so you should probably just disregard this post. Cheers.

Good summary.

It is also worth pointing out that since Tesla is, as you put it "mostly vague or unclear", it also means that progress is building up like a pressure cooker and seemingly allowing the stock to drop at will. (I'm talking innovation and plans). We have no response from Optimus on shirt-folding, no stock buy-backs, no updates on when V12 is going wider (and yet is appears way better), etc... and like you say, no forecast for this year.

So Tesla appears to be extremely silent - which is the basis for my warning to short sellers - and the only warning that I will give you.

Tesla silence is bullish says my crystal ball shown below. I believe the trigger will be pulled this year... sometime. Further, their argument of not showing Optimus in the Conf Call could have been cover to align with this abnormally silent company. (Honestly, how much can people possibly learn from watching Optimus walk around? I call bluff on that one.)

 

[keydiver]

I got scammed into watching a “live” SpaceX YouTube video of the launch last night. Went right up to seconds before launch and turned into Musk hawking crypto. I think it’s still up, so beware.

Same thing happened to my wife and I a few months ago. I reported the video to Youtube and they took it down.

 

[uscbucsfan]

As long as I am concerned fsd is basically solved, and the mkt will eventually recognize it.

It's not though. Elon wouldn't even say that.

The market will recognize it when it is.

 

[Knightshade]

Other car companies, they are not even in the same universe, VW with 200 billion in debt, and
GM with about 100 billion in debt. They will never pay it back.

Most car company debt is the financing arm, and is backed by the cars they issued loans for.

Debt load isn't remotely as bad as most folks here make out to be for legacy auto. It's not nothing, and it's worse for some than others... but the idea they're all on the verge of bankruptcy just ain't so.

Auto is not a high PE business. Go back 10 or 20 or whatever # of years you want- it never has been.

if Tesla is just a car company the PE ratio is insanely high. You need to recognize a lot more than that for even the current SP, let alone a higher one, to make any sense.

As long as I am concerned fsd is basically solved, and the mkt will eventually recognize it.

Elon said it was "basically solved" in 2016. It's 2024 now and it's still not, actually, solved.

 

[FlamingPIG]

Doumas the same guy who as a frequent guest on Dave Lees show told us first how useful and important radar was as a sensor for Tesla-

Do you remember which episode this talking point take place? My degenerated brain don't remember this.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Elon said it was "basically solved" in 2016. It's 2024 now and it's still not, actually, solved.

Honestly, that FSD demo video from 2016 was why we ordered the Model 3, and then leaned in for more TSLA when I drove it for about 30 seconds.

Trick Question: Is Elon saying FSD is solved now?

 

[Krugerrand]

Good summary.

It is also worth pointing out that since Tesla is, as you put it "mostly vague or unclear", it also means that progress is building up like a pressure cooker and seemingly allowing the stock to drop at will. (I'm talking innovation and plans). We have no response from Optimus on shirt-folding, no stock buy-backs, no updates on when V12 is going wider (and yet is appears way better), etc... and like you say, no forecast for this year.

So Tesla appears to be extremely silent - which is the basis for my warning to short sellers - and the only warning that I will give you.

Tesla silence is bullish says my crystal ball shown below. I believe the trigger will be pulled this year... sometime. Further, their argument of not showing Optimus in the Conf Call could have been cover to align with this abnormally silent company. (Honestly, how much can people possibly learn from watching Optimus walk around? I call bluff on that one.)

View attachment 1027920

It’s a double edged sword, isn’t it? Mystery and intrigue vs handholding.

The reality is that Tesla has done it both ways and despite what some are saying - if Tesla would guide, WS wouldn’t punish the stock because of the uncertainty - that’s the biggest pile of . WS players wallstreet regardless of what Tesla does. They have an agenda that has nothing to do with the company. They want everyone to believe they’re being honest and sincere with their analysis and such. BS all day long, every day. Liar, liar pants on fire.

When will people buy a clue?

 

[Usain]

I know this forum is a cheerleader team for TSLA, and has ignored many bad signals since 2022, but I still suggest you not to buy anymore until we see signals that the bottom has been built.

I buy on the way up. I buy on the way down. I buy on the way flat.

Dollar cost averaging into Tesla. Holding for several years. The plan should work.

 

[Cobbler]

My predictions (for entertainment )

the coming weeks/months:

1) Q4 '23 financial results will be a disappointment. Wallstreet and MSM will salivate over this and publish a lot of articles with clickbaity headlines claiming the Tesla bubble has burst!
2) End of Januari: $TSLA dips below $100
3) Februari Elon converts his options into shares. .....

I am going to adjust my predictions based on new data coming in, going full Troy style

Step 3 is set for April

 

[carterm2]

Starlink on Tesla? I see Starlink adding great value to Tesla Services and Supercharger sites in the distant future. FSD will introduce product and services expansion for Tesla.

Interesting information at 7:24

 

[Knightshade]

I am going to adjust my predictions based on new data coming in, going full Troy style

Step 3 is set for April

How will he exercise options he will no longer have if the court decision stands (and it's unlikely to be reversed by April, if it gets reversed at all)?

Do you remember which episode this talking point take place? My degenerated brain don't remember this.

It was in context of discussing why LIDAR was bad (or perhaps more generously only duplicating what good vision can get you), but Radar was good and useful (seeing in bad weather, bouncing under cars to see things vision can't, etc)- but Douma has been on his show dozens of times at this point, so can't give you an exact episode # for it sorry.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla at the moment is worth more than Toyota, Ford, and GM combined. In terms of comparisons with car manufacturers, that seems not so bad.

The stock price was also $60 lower just over a year ago

Ford and GM are pure garbage, one recession away from a bailout.

 

[keydiver]

Debt load isn't remotely as bad as most folks here make out to be for legacy auto. It's not nothing, and it's worse for some than others... but the idea they're all on the verge of bankruptcy just ain't so.

That may be true, but let's not forget what happened in 2008, when tens of thousands of people started defaulting on their car loans. Will they get another bailout this time?

 

[Usain]

It's not though. Elon wouldn't even say that.

The market will recognize it when it is.

True, Elon won't say FSD is solved yet.

But we here on TMC will recognize it long before the market. I think some of us are already starting think we almost see it.

I really can't wait to get my hands on V12.

 

[Drax7]

Try commuting 2 hours per day in heavy traffic, you will pay
Anything to have fsd . Even the present version is a godsend.

 

[GOVA]

Starlink on Tesla? I see Starlink adding great value to Tesla Services and Supercharger sites in the distant future. FSD will introduce product and services expansion for Tesla.

Interesting information at 7:24

For some reason, I took it as given. Once Elon has enough satellites in the sky, he'll flip the switch for cars and other things too.
I see it as independent communication routes for (cool) Tesla owners but independent of any infrastructure on Earth.

Cough, cough, pylon arson, where Tesla has no control over really.

 

[AndrewZ]

Ford and GM are pure garbage, one recession away from a bailout.

Yup, Toyota is the vast majority of that comparison

Try commuting 2 hours per day in heavy traffic, you will pay
Anything to have fsd . Even the present version is a godsend.

Mercedes’ Level 3 Traffic Jam Assist functionality sounds like it would be particularly good in this situation, where you can actually stop paying attention to what the vehicle is doing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

For some reason, I took it as given. Once Elon has enough satellites in the sky, he'll flip the switch for cars and other things too.
I see it as independent communication routes for (cool) Tesla owners but independent of any infrastructure on Earth.

Cough, cough, pylon arson, where Tesla has no control over really.

Ya, it doesn't look like there'd be any interest out there for Starlinks in Tesla's...

/s

Hopefully with some bandwidth for an in-car video conference (while the car drives itself of course).
Elon, how about this for a demo drive?

1. In-car browser with X.com +
2. Starlink Video Conference +
3. Jay Leno in 2nd Tesla, also in Conf +
4. Both using FSD unsupervised +
5. Jay says, "Open Glove-box... (pause) Ba-ha"
6. Zoom out, map showing the 2,000 mi between them.

 

[raffiniert]

Don't be fooled. Don't let anyone tell you that Tesla is done for. Tesla hasn't even started yet. I drove into the next town today, was followed by a Highland M3 and had an MY in front of me. The MY turned left into the same supermarket I was going to, the M3 went straight. I went shopping for dinner. When I returned to the parking lot, the M3 was next to me and the driver smiled at me. He opened his door. A very young, very friendly man. He turned around in the street when I turned left, looked for my car in the parking lot, and waited patiently just to talk to me about his awesome M3 Highland, which he absolutely ADORES, and my awesome plaid.
He couldn't stop showing me things on his M3, like the ambient lighting, and how it can change colors. I knew the M3 Highland could do that. But that wasn't the point. The point was that he was endlessly enthusiastic about his car. He loves it. And for good reason: I looked at it and it's beautiful and very well built.

Don't pay attention to the noise.
Don't be deceived into thinking Tesla is finished.
Don't be fooled.

This is just the beginning.

PS: and if you don't believe me, Youtube in its endless wisdom just recommended this video to me:

 

[advocate8]

Most car company debt is the financing arm, and is backed by the cars they issued loans for.

Debt load isn't remotely as bad as most folks here make out to be for legacy auto. It's not nothing, and it's worse for some than others... but the idea they're all on the verge of bankruptcy just ain't so.

Auto is not a high PE business. Go back 10 or 20 or whatever # of years you want- it never has been.

if Tesla is just a car company the PE ratio is insanely high. You need to recognize a lot more than that for even the current SP, let alone a higher one, to make any sense.





Elon said it was "basically solved" in 2016. It's 2024 now and it's still not, actually, solved.

Yep. In other words, the market’s assessment of the chances of success of FSD, Optimus etc, rightly or wrongly, are to some degree priced in already.