Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Oh... can I call bottom (what's a little more egg on the face, right?)?
Nice chart anyway...

View attachment 1027867

Spoiler: Correction - Updated Chart", New Bottom

My apologies, my line wasn't exactly on the dots in the last publication. This is the corrected chart.

Further, if we ZOOM IN... we can clearly see 164.20 could become a Strategic Inflection Point.

 

[Quesder]

LOL of course they would say that.

Here’s a list of the successful Chinese car companies in North America (that didn’t start out as non-Chinese and then get bought out by them, aka Volvo/Geely):

1.

That is because North America hasn't opened its market to Chinese brands yet, and that is exactly why they (actually, Elon himself), IF the market is opened, the Western brands will have a hard time competing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm going for the win here folks... wish me luck! Not sure it will make it.

Edit: OK... BEAT THAT!

 

[Mengy]

Today looks brutal for TSLA but honestly its falling mostly in line with the rest of the market, sans the rest of the Mag 7.

Although I guess TSLA has fallen enough that its no longer even IN the Mag 7...

 

[Quesder]

Spoiler: Correction - Updated Chart", New Bottom

My apologies, my line wasn't exactly on the dots in the last publication. This is the corrected chart.

View attachment 1027878

Further, if we ZOOM IN... we can clearly see 164.20 could become a Strategic Inflection Point.

View attachment 1027882

I'm going for the win here folks... wish me luck! Not sure it will make it.

Edit: OK... BEAT THAT!

View attachment 1027892

I know this forum is a cheerleader team for TSLA, and has ignored many bad signals since 2022, but I still suggest you not to buy anymore until we see signals that the bottom has been built.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Today looks brutal for TSLA but honestly its falling mostly in line with the rest of the market, sans the rest of the Mag 7.

Although I guess TSLA has fallen enough that its no longer even IN the Mag 7...

I think everyone walked away. It's all good, I bought more (against some recent advice).
Harder to be funny now, but I can still try. 150?

 

[2daMoon]

I know this forum is a cheerleader team for TSLA, and has ignored many bad signals since 2022, but I still suggest you not to buy anymore until we see signals that the bottom has been built.

Sounds fearful.

You're not a follower of Buffett, are you?

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."​

If you are among the "others" then that sounds bullish to me!

 

[scaesare]

It also stutters, which makes it seem like it's a person just talking.

Figure is considered the leader with Bots currently, but until they actually show them in the real world, I remain skeptical as well.

It also said "plate 'n' cup". It also has very human speech inflections.

Perhaps it is a human reading the text responses, but that would seem odd given the relative ease of speech synthesis... although I've seen further replies that suggest current speech engines do some of these things... not ones I commonly hear, however...

 

[scaesare]

This business is almost certainly running at a loss. It may never “get there”.

I dunno... Elon's not the type to sell product at a loss just to grab market share... deliberately stay low-volume/high-price while they reduce cost, yes... but loss? Not so sure....

 

[scaesare]

You're going to love the Cybertruck! I love mine. Also, nice range, near 360 miles per charge, just waiting for the locking diffs. Oh yeah, and I hate steering myself.View attachment 1026828View attachment 1026829View attachment 1026830

Man, that energy per mile figure in a warm weather climate is about the same as my (admittedly vintage) Model S when chilly...

Pretty impressive for that vehicle.

 

[Mengy]

I know this forum is a cheerleader team for TSLA, and has ignored many bad signals since 2022, but I still suggest you not to buy anymore until we see signals that the bottom has been built.

I know everyone else is laughing at you but I gave you a thumbs up. I too don't think we've hit bottom yet. Q1 ER has a very good chance to be brutal to the stock in my opinion. At least in the short term, so I think a better buying opportunity is right "around the corner".

Not that I'm buying, I'm already all in.

 

[Knightshade]

Sounds fearful.

You're not a follower of Buffett, are you?

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."​

If you are among the "others" then that sounds bullish to me!

He seems to be suggesting the uberbulls in here who still think 2024 #s well north of 2M are realistic, even in the face of a bunch of folks who just met directly with Tesla all cutting their own estimates below 2M, are the "others" being greedy in this case and being on the other side of that might be the better choice for the near future, and they're suggesting you understand what's going on accurately NOW, but still believe in longer term bright days years ahead (I certainly do!) then waiting a touch longer to deploy spare funds might be a reasonable choice. (and indeed I plan to add, but not yet, we've still got better sales coming on the stock price).

Possibly after Q1 PD confirms the bad delivery #s certain folks in here keep insisting must be wrong for example.

Though I suspect at a least a few will insist it's all transient for Q1 and we'll still, somehow, magically, deliver 2.4M this year instead of being more realistic and understanding even 2M will be a challenge at this point.


Everything in life is about perspective though I suppose.

 

[Drax7]

Disheartening how an apparently weak qtr can break the stock by
This magnitude.

This is inspite of US EV manufactures cratering and tesla just
Finishing the December qtr with record sales.
.
Even the starship success has no positive halo effect.
Irrational pessimism

 

[AndrewZ]

Disheartening how an apparently weak qtr can break the stock by
This magnitude.

This is inspite of US EV manufactures cratering and tesla just
Finishing the December qtr with record sales.
.
Even the starship success has no positive halo effect.
Irrational pessimism

Tesla at the moment is worth more than Toyota, Ford, and GM combined. In terms of comparisons with car manufacturers, that seems not so bad.

The stock price was also $60 lower just over a year ago

 

[DarkandStormy]

Disheartening how an apparently weak qtr can break the stock by
This magnitude.

This is inspite of US EV manufactures cratering and tesla just
Finishing the December qtr with record sales.
.
Even the starship success has no positive halo effect.
Irrational pessimism

I think - and I'm not an expert so feel free to disregard - that the price action so far this year has to due with lack of guidance. Jonas and maybe Gary Black (I get them all confused) said Tesla held an investor day and reading the tea leaves, they're suggesting that Tesla forecasted to them for minimal growth in 2024, hence a bunch of revisions down in estimates.

So, yes, Q1 looks like it'll come in below the 490k-500k that many were anticipating just a couple months ago, but in addition it sounds like it'll be tough to achieve 2m units in FY2024 (per @Troy). This is causing analysts to further reduce their out year estimates, to the extent they model beyond 2025.

Imo (which is, admittedly, worth nothing) we're in for a bumpy ride sideways or even down until a couple of the following start to occur - stabilized to even increased gross margins over a couple quarters, a clear timeline of Gen 2 ~$25k vehicle, clear progress with a stated timeline on Optimus (plus anticipated pricing, production, etc.), and/or clear plans in preparation of the rollout of a robotaxi network. Even hitting on a couple of those I think would boost the stock price, but for now it's mostly vague or unclear on all of them - at least for 2024. We probably start seeing some movement there in 2025 with CT ramping to something material to the financials.

Again, just my opinion, I'm not an expert, and so you should probably just disregard this post. Cheers.

 

[Knightshade]

Disheartening how an apparently weak qtr can break the stock by
This magnitude.

This isn't "Ah, Q1 will be weak"

This is a company that in late 2021 was saying growth would exceed 50% CAGR for quite a long time, and then not only came in below 50%, double-digit-below, both 2022 and 2023, but may come in at single-digit unit growth in 2024 and maybe even 2025.

Growth should get explosive again after that, assuming excellent execution and no further delays-- but until then the lofty PEs of the >50% growth days don't look so good.

This is inspite of US EV manufactures cratering and tesla just
Finishing the December qtr with record sales.

If Tesla is just a car company then the stock is still too high- looks at other car companies PEs.

So comparing them to other car companies does you no favors in trying to argue the stock is too low.

it's only in recognizing the future value of OTHER parts of the company you can begin to justify even the current price, let alone a significantly higher one.

 

[Ellec]

I know this forum is a cheerleader team for TSLA, and has ignored many bad signals since 2022, but I still suggest you not to buy anymore until we see signals that the bottom has been built.

I use Dollar cost averaging to accumulate, no one knows when the bottom will be so better to buy in say monthly chunks that way you won't miss the boat if there is a surprise to the upside. I personally think it's headed down for a bit yet, but will be buying every month for the next 3-4 years anyway so don't really care, in fact the lower the better. Assuming of course you believe the long term story (which I 100% do)

 

[2daMoon]

I know everyone else is laughing at you but I gave you a thumbs up. I too don't think we've hit bottom yet. Q1 ER has a very good chance to be brutal to the stock in my opinion. At least in the short term, so I think a better buying opportunity is right "around the corner".

Not that I'm buying, I'm already all in.

There is nothing problematic with accumulating on the way down. Like you, I wish I wasn't already all-in.

Giving suggestions to folks to wait for the bottom before buying, that is problematic. Once it makes that turn, TSLA can have a tendency to quickly rise above those purchase points in short order, so to speak.

 

[Papafox]

Disheartening how an apparently weak qtr can break the stock by
This magnitude.

This is inspite of US EV manufactures cratering and tesla just
Finishing the December qtr with record sales.
.
Even the starship success has no positive halo effect.
Irrational pessimism

One of the problems with TSLA right now is that it's really hard to attach a value to it. We know there's growth ahead but that growth isn't showing in Q1. Some analysts such as Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley are determining value by what the individual parts of Tesla will be worth in a couple years and then discounting back. These are the people getting valuations near $300. Less aware analysts are still computing value as if Tesla is just a car company with low growth. These analysts such as those at Wells Fargo get really low valuation numbers. In this ambiguity, the stock is easy to manipulate and we see BIG efforts underway this week. You need a longer term confidence to sit out these dips. When we dipped below 120 a year ago those who sold near the bottom were the big losers. I choose not to join that crowd.

 

[Drax7]

This isn't "Ah, Q1 will be weak"

This is a company that in late 2021 was saying growth would exceed 50% CAGR for quite a long time, and then not only came in below 50%, double-digit-below, both 2022 and 2023, but may come in at single-digit unit growth in 2024 and maybe even 2025.

Growth should get explosive again after that, assuming excellent execution and no further delays-- but until then the lofty PEs of the >50% growth days don't look so good.






If Tesla is just a car company then the stock is still too high- looks at other car companies PEs.

So comparing them to other car companies does you no favors in trying to argue the stock is too low.

it's only in recognizing the future value of OTHER parts of the company you can begin to justify even the current price, let alone a significantly higher one.

Other car companies, they are not even in the same universe, VW with 200 billion in debt, and
GM with about 100 billion in debt. They will never pay it back.

As long as I am concerned fsd is basically solved, and the mkt will eventually recognize it.