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Don't be ridiculous. I've been following Tesla, daily every year since 2009, have owned 3 Teslas, started investing in 2012 and have been using FSD since 10/22. My only point initially was to reply to a question on why some people are still buying ICE's?. A very complex question to answer but one mitigating factor is lack of service centers. Of course there are lots of other reasons but If you don't believe that limits some people from buying your not talking to enough people. Just travel around the country where service centers don't exist and you'll find out people are hesitant.
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While I get your point. It might actually be something else. People (minds) have been so accustomed to whole ICE/Dealership situation. Now, what if Tesla actually knows that their repairs don't have to have be done at expensive B&M centers.
We all know that for ICE dealers, said centers are real cash cows to their whole business.

This is not the way to go for Tesla. The % of repairs will be less than ICE. People minds need to change and will change especially with passing time.

Tesla service has improved and reaches 90% + of what it needs to cover. No need to build service centers where they might fix 5 cars a week or less.
 
Tesla China price increases, chinese competitors (CEO of Xiaomi) point of view:

"Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun said that Tesla has the unique advantage of being able to raise the prices of its electric vehicles, a move that other companies cannot pull off because they are risking “huge losses.”"

 
Can't speak to the "hype" point, but my experience has been unreservedly positive. In 6 years, I've been to the local service location once and had 2 ranger visits. I didn't request them, just when I went through the app for service, it assigned a mobile service person. Both times were 100% positive for me.
I agree, I have had a couple positive experinces with Rangers, never a negative one: One time I was visiting my grandmother in Florida and the charge port terminals broke. The Ranger fixed it within 24 hours. I am very grateful for the service.

I should also mention that my Tesla service center experiences over the last 8 years have resulted in maybe 20 visits between 4 cars, probably a third of then for the front sway arms that go bad in the X & tire changes (I always get the large rims that result in drastically shorter tire life). I can get tire changes down the street at my friend's shop, but I honestly like to give Tesla the business because they undeniably offer a superior service.

I should have defined "hype" better: In 2018 Tesla claimed that 80% of service issues could be resolved remotely. This is definitely inflated. My friend who has worked at the local service center for years tells me it's less than 20% in reality. Like many things throughout Tesla's history, it seems they, Elon especially, do a lot to inflate expectations beyond reason. Don't get me wrong, he is and will always be the great Musskiah in my eyes. I think he has tempered this character trait of hyping things up quite a bit over the years. I also understnd back in 2018, hype was necessary to keep the narrative alive until findamentals shifted positive.

It's sorta like the Gartner Hype Cycle where a larger peak of inflated expectations can lead to a greater trough of disillusionment; Tesla has control over the hype/peak, and consequently the trough.
Gartner_Hype_Cycle.svg.png
 
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I disagreed because this is a quite oversimplified and one-dimensional view.

Toyota had huge success with Lexus, introduced in the US and developed for the US primarily, launched in ~1987 almost instantly being best selling luxury vehicle in US, the going global. That followed the introduction of Camry, also designed for the center of the US sedan market.

Toyota through the 1970's and1980's grow rapidly in many global markets with a plethora of models.
As fro the Prius, it was not the product fo desperation but an exploration for the future, built in part from the ashes of the RAV4 EV California compliance car powered famously by Tesla and contributing to the Fremont factory. That was largely the product of the failure of the Joint venture with GM, rather than inherent Toyota problems.

From our perspective, conditioned by facts and, factually, bias, to see BEV as THE solution, back in the later 1990's that was definitely not a sure thing. Toyota has devoted itself to Deming's-style continuous improvement, as is copiously documented as "he Toyota Way". What hindsight tells us, especially those of us so enamored with Deming, is that such an approach fails miserably when technological change reorders objective reality. That, rather than short term market weakness in Japan dissuaded Toyota from greater innovation building on their initial lead.

In my opinion, versions of that drive for Demings-style continuous improvement, has inhibited the entire established auto industry, including Toyota. Further all of them, whether Japanese, Korean, German or US, have suffered from their explicit attempts to mimic the Toyota Way, itself heavily driven by relentless outsourcing. In short, the success pattern fo the 1980's proved the root cause of 2020's lagging innovation. Demings did not anticipate fundamental technological change.

I did not mention Stellantis and predecessors/components because they have more in common with things like 1960's German consolidation (e.g. NSU, Borgward, etc) and, horror!, British Motors Corporation.

Anybody can choose to disagree with this assessment but... it took an Elon Musk to start from his famous "First Principles" to revolutionize Space Flight and automotive technology. It really is bizarre that the pace of innovation speeds almost exponentially by completely discarding the Demings-style continuous improvement. Factually incrementalism is the enemy of progress.

As a onetime deep devotee of Deming's and as a consultant and executive I pushed to adopt mimics of 'The Toyota Way' to the extent of succeeding in fomenting both mergers and merger integration following those principles. I was WRONG!

The weakness of Toyota is dependent commitment to incrementalism. When incrementalism begins to fade, the impulse is to jump to 'the next big thing' such as hydrogen. The problem is that trained incrementalists really do not see the difference between fundamental principles and continuous improvement. That makes things such as Hydrogen seems like a good idea if one has never heard of the Bohr radius. Strangely there are many, many engineers who think they can beat that problem. Even Toyota.
That is the problem of incrementalism.

Bluntly, all that has little or nothing to do with Japanese auto market share.
I disagree that Tesla’s way differs from what Deming professed. In fact I believe Tesla is one of the best in the world at actually doing what Deming proposed, this this is a major reason why I’m invested. I say this as a quality engineer who has spent a fair bit of time studying Deming and the Toyota Production System.

Nothing in Deming’s 14 principles indicates a focus solely on incremental improvement (“kaizen” in Toyota terminology) without any step-change radical improvements. And even so, Tesla’s rate of introducing incremental improvements to the production system is far beyond the rest of the industry, and it’s mostly driven by empowered and engaged shop floor workers trying to improve their own workflow—a key tenet of Deming’s principles.

Sandy Munro was personally mentored by Dr. Deming while they both were at Ford, and he runs his company based on Deming’s teachings. The Munro and Associates website says, “Truly, the underlying Deming spirit and philosophy is evident in all the Munro products and services.” Sandy has called himself a “Deming disciple”. In fact, Sandy left Ford to start his own company because Deming told him to. Considering that Sandy is enamored with Tesla’s way of doing business, I think it’s safe to say Deming would be too if he was still alive.

I published an essay on this topic from a couple years ago:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-particular-merit.140611/page-11#post-7015664
 
Going from 48.2% of the market to 50.1% (which is all that is needed for what he's claiming will happen) is.... not steep.
He's claiming it will happen in only 3 months and the S-curve for EV adoption is spread over many years. The steepness of the curve depends on the time horizon as well as the absolute change over a single time period. Steepness is all about the slope, which means you have to consider the change relative to BOTH the X and Y axis.

Also, if you are on an S-curve and you are close to 50% adoption then you are, by definition, on the steep part of the curve.

The rest of your post is just more cynicism. You seem to think that Tesla cares about the year over year comparison more than just selling more cars in both Q1 and Q2.

Raising prices to start Q2 means Tesla thinks demand will be higher in Q2. Announcing it now means Tesla would also like a little more demand right now in Q1. Thus, they balance supply and demand both now and later. That is the simplest explanation.
 
And what problems, and how numerous, requiring a 2 hr trip to service?
Rangers appear to be more prevalent if you live near Service. I spent 2 years during covid in Vegas, and ranger came for my 12V, and I went to service for HW3 upgrade. My Model 3 frunk jammed shut during the 2k mile trip moving back to FL and I was able to stop by Pensacola Service on the way and the manager was nice enough to get me in (he initially wanted me to leave it there).

Oct 2023 Model X had window trim falling off, a bad FWD sensor (would never open fully), and driver window clicks. Turning at low-speeds felt like left wheel 'skips' (like driving a Wrangler on 4L on dry pavement) and harsh vibrations when accelerating (feels like rumble strips). Service noted on invoice that it's 'normal for 4wd'. I was so frustrated by the 2-days of nonsense I just wanted to head back home. But it's such a pain in the ass to get to service.
2-hr trip there, I paid to Uber and waited 2-hrs for a rental at Hertz I had to pay for, and then 2-hrs back home.
Next day, 2-hours back to pick-up X and 2-hours back home. Since, I found loose trim at top of rear tailgate window (they didn't pull off the peel'n'stick from the adhesive, so I did it).
I can deal with the inconvenience if necessary, but the working class buyers of $25k Model and middle class Model 3/Y buyers cannot afford to take days off work like this.
 
He's claiming it will happen in only 3 months and the S-curve for EV adoption is spread over many years. The steepness of the curve depends on the time horizon as well as the absolute change over a single time period. Steepness is all about the slope, which means you have to consider the change relative to BOTH the X and Y axis.

Also, if you are on an S-curve and you are close to 50% adoption then you are, by definition, on the steep part of the curve.


That's great.

But a just-under-2% increase in market share by:

A company that isn't Tesla.
Mostly sells cars that are not BEVs
Mostly sells cars much cheaper than Tesals

Continues not to tell you a ton useful about the likely growth of Teslas existing models sales.


Raising prices to start Q2 means Tesla thinks demand will be higher in Q2.

You know repeating something without evidence doesn't magically create evidence right?


Announcing it now means Tesla would also like a little more demand right now in Q1.


So.... they are doing something because they think demand is increasing... but they're also doing it in hopes of increasing demand?

Do you read your own posts?


see demand increasing... but they're doing something in hopes it increases demand?


That is the simplest explanation.


No.

They're running 5 different incentives for 3/31 delivery- plus announcing a price increase after 3/31- is to pull demand forward to increase deliveries by 3/31.

That is...literally... the simplest explanation.




The rest of your post is just more cynicism

I'm sorry you find facts and data cynical.

Best of luck with your various investment theories that seem to rely on ignoring all of those.
 
I'm fairly positive any 'Tesla Ranger' worth his salt could fix this in your garage/driveway. I suspect all that's needed is a torque wrench. We just had a Ranger visit us last week. His mobile service truck? A brand new, fully kitted-out Model S!
Except Tesla Rangers are as scarce as Tesla Service Centers outside of metro areas. They always make me drive to them with the excuse that it can only be done at a Service Center.
 
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While I get your point. It might actually be something else. People (minds) have been so accustomed to whole ICE/Dealership situation. Now, what if Tesla actually knows that their repairs don't have to have be done at expensive B&M centers.
We all know that for ICE dealers, said centers are real cash cows to their whole business.

This is not the way to go for Tesla. The % of repairs will be less than ICE. People minds need to change and will change especially with passing time.

Tesla service has improved and reaches 90% + of what it needs to cover. No need to build service centers where they might fix 5 cars a week or less.
On the other hand - many people still rightfully want to see what they're purchasing with their own eyes before buying anything expensive. The combination Store/Service Centre is beneficial.

But I won't disagree about the service center alone - again, back to my own history, once Manitoba had sufficient owners, Tesla hired a permanent Ranger from Winnipeg to service the province. They just rented space at a repair shop, and I think it made sense. But once Model 3 and Y were released, they really needed a Winnipeg Store - I flew in to Saskatoon to pick up my 2023 Y, and drove the 9 hours home; that would be too much for a lot of people (and that method was cheaper than getting it shipped out, which was also complicated in other ways).

I fully anticipate the sales of Tesla to significantly increase in my old province once the new Store opens at the end of March.

I do think it's a very tricky line for Tesla to walk, and they made decisions based on a lot of data. As an investor I'm glad they chose to be financially cautious, and we have the cash reserves to show for that frugality.

What this also means, however, is that even if we're 'demand constrained': in addition to price controls, building more Stores in under-served areas and expansion into new countries will have real returns. The latter takes more time and investment, but at least in Canada we're FAR from saturated. It sounds like there are areas in the USA that also will grow if they add Stores, so to me this is a positive growth opportunity (that Tesla didn't take advantage of earlier due to being production-constrained, but it seems like now is the time to expand - it's a key marketing tool).
 
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That's great.

But a just-under-2% increase in market share by:

A company that isn't Tesla.
Mostly sells cars that are not BEVs
Mostly sells cars much cheaper than Tesals

Continues not to tell you a ton useful about the likely growth of Teslas existing models sales.




You know repeating something without evidence doesn't magically create evidence right?





So.... they are doing something because they think demand is increasing... but they're also doing it in hopes of increasing demand?

Do you read your own posts?


see demand increasing... but they're doing something in hopes it increases demand?





No.

They're running 5 different incentives for 3/31 delivery- plus announcing a price increase after 3/31- is to pull demand forward to increase deliveries by 3/31.

That is...literally... the simplest explanation.






I'm sorry you find facts and data cynical.

Best of luck with your various investment theories that seem to rely on ignoring all of those.
Go back and read what the BYD chairman said and what he was referring to. You are all mixed up.

Also, go study the S-curve. You don't seem to get it.
 
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Rangers appear to be more prevalent if you live near Service. I spent 2 years during covid in Vegas, and ranger came for my 12V, and I went to service for HW3 upgrade. My Model 3 frunk jammed shut during the 2k mile trip moving back to FL and I was able to stop by Pensacola Service on the way and the manager was nice enough to get me in (he initially wanted me to leave it there).

Oct 2023 Model X had window trim falling off, a bad FWD sensor (would never open fully), and driver window clicks. Turning at low-speeds felt like left wheel 'skips' (like driving a Wrangler on 4L on dry pavement) and harsh vibrations when accelerating (feels like rumble strips). Service noted on invoice that it's 'normal for 4wd'. I was so frustrated by the 2-days of nonsense I just wanted to head back home. But it's such a pain in the ass to get to service.
2-hr trip there, I paid to Uber and waited 2-hrs for a rental at Hertz I had to pay for, and then 2-hrs back home.
Next day, 2-hours back to pick-up X and 2-hours back home. Since, I found loose trim at top of rear tailgate window (they didn't pull off the peel'n'stick from the adhesive, so I did it).
I can deal with the inconvenience if necessary, but the working class buyers of $25k Model and middle class Model 3/Y buyers cannot afford to take days off work like this.
You are just one data point. Comparing your data point to future non-existent model is a disservice to all.
Tesla will have changed from MX days to unknown future model years. They do aim to reach 'the best service is no service' claim.
 
Agree. I would have possibly fixed it myself... even under warranty. (Then again, I own big tools, big Allen wrenches, a BIG Philips, impact wrenches, etc...) To me, it's like someone seeing their window open and thinking it's broken. It's a truck! (Grabs a torque wrench, checks wheels).

It's also not nothing. They forgot a step which isn't good. Optimus? Are you practicing again?

When Optimus is employed, quality could go up by an order of magnitude. Ask anyone, in any factory, it's the People who tend to screw things up best (followed by Equipment then Materials and Process - my ranking anyway). Biggest reasons is they won't cut corners, they will all be trained to exact specifications, and they won't forget to tighten the striker bolt on CyberTruck - mainly because they don't mate or compete, or need breaks. Just by NOT stopping a machine in production, you improve quality. MU (Machine Utilization) goes up too, so capital and other costs drop. I can't wait to see this!!!

Hopefully Optimus has good hearing with crazy frequency range. They could learn the sounds of the machine better than any human, even predict maintenance needs more precisely.

Uh, what was I talking about?
As a quality engineer I would say Optimus maybe has potential to majorly improve quality but for now its hard to say with confidence.

Certainly a robot wouldn't have the main issues affecting human-performed operations. This would include problems like taking shortcuts, loss of focus, emotional issues, intentional sabotage, sneezing, and general inability to perform an action with consistency. With repetitive boring work it is inherently difficult for humans to maintain vigilance and attention, even if they're trying hard. Our brains really want to save energy and go onto habitual autopilot instead of focusing nonstop on an unchanging stimulus.

However, robots could introduce other failure modes. For example, when design or manufacturing process changes are introduced, human operators, with their intelligent understanding of context and common sense, can usually identify potential problems. If Optimus is basically just following programming, design flaws could go unrecognized for a long time without humans in the loop.

Additionally, it is likely, in my opinion, that we are nowhere close to robots having the same degree of dexterity and tactile sensing as human hands. Hands are incredible and many manufacturing operations in an automotive assembly line require that dexterity. Optimus, with its comparative clumsiness and dull sense of touch, could be more likely to cause accidental damage, incomplete wire contact insertion into terminals, dropped tools, sloppy sealant application, mis-threaded bolts/screws and so on.
 
You are just one data point. Comparing your data point to future non-existent model is a disservice to all.
Tesla will have changed from MX days to unknown future model years. They do aim to reach 'the best service is no service' claim.
I believe every data point is important to note, even if it may be an outlier and doesn't actually contribute to a reliable extrapolative pattern. But every data point indicates potential issues that need to be guarded against to reduce future issues. And, of course, if an outlier becomes too common, it's no longer an outlier. It's hard to know what that point is, moreso if we ignore outliers.

It's a very tough balance - consumer retail is a terribly difficult sector for managing customers - and every company needs to stay vigilant to maintain quality training. Personality conflicts and expectation disparities means you'll never completely avoid dissatisfied customers. I'm quite glad to have retired from that sector... Thanks, TSLA.
 
And what problems, and how numerous, requiring a 2 hr trip to service?

I got one of those a few weeks after buying my TMX. I used the app to ask where I could get a new battery for one of the key fobs.

They messaged me back and told be a mobile ranger would visit the next day - was that OK?

Of course it was!

I complemented the guy who came for taking a 3h drive to change a fob battery. He said he hadn't much else to do that day. And he had never been to my island and were curious about the place.
 
Strongly agree. I live in Vermont and until now the nearest service center has been a four hour round trip to Lathrop New York. Just had my first Ranger service visit a few weeks ago (to fix a fog light) and showed a bad panel gap to the technician. He measured and said it was sufficient to warrant adjustment on a new service ticket. The larger issue for us investors you raise, is myopic allocation of resources as the company has reached large scale and profitability. With 20+ billion in cash reserves, why not deploy .0001 % to correcting quality problems, adding service centers more proactively and other steps to support demand growth prior to ramping of Model 2. Including ramping overdue efforts to overcome widely held misconceptions about EVs versus ICE vehicles.
Crazy. I live in Scotland and have 3 Tesla service centres within 1 and a half hours from my door. But then Dundee is the centre of the Universe :cool:
 
Don't be ridiculous. I've been following Tesla, daily every year since 2009, have owned 3 Teslas, started investing in 2012 and have been using FSD since 10/22. My only point initially was to reply to a question on why some people are still buying ICE's?. A very complex question to answer but one mitigating factor is lack of service centers. Of course there are lots of other reasons but If you don't believe that limits some people from buying your not talking to enough people. Just travel around the country where service centers don't exist and you'll find out people are hesitant.
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That's why it wasn't stated as if I thought it WAS actually FUD, only that repeating it over and over resembles the tactics the FUDsters use.

I totally agree that this is a reason people probably think is important, because it always was a factor before. This is from their ignorance about the service needs of a BEV being an order of magnitude fewer than those for an ICE vehicle.

The mitigating factor is not the lack of service centers so much as it is the presumption that a lack of service centers will be a problem in the future. It won't be.

Education is the faster path to winning over those buyers than would be increasing the number of service centers at a rate faster than they can be populated with capable staff.
 
Then why telegraph it? Just raise it on April 1st or even today. By announcing the increase they are trying to get people off the fence and buy now.
I can think of two reasons:

1. It’s the right thing to do: They believe potential buyers will appreciate the heads up, especially those who felt they were just about to buy. The heads up might be only due to Elon’s sense of fair play or that, in addition, Tesla wants to avoid reputational damage from raising the price without fair warning.


2. Tesla will sell more cars overall: Maybe some people really wouldn’t buy once the price goes up by X dollars/Y euros/Z whatevers so they pull the trigger.