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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I know this discussion has passed, but considering all of these semantics regarding feature complete, I did want to point out that (this time) Elon didn't mention anything about feature complete. Whole Mars was the one that interpreted what Elon said to mean feature complete. Here's the timeline of what was said on X:

1. Dave Lee says: "Tesla FSD is going to get bonkers when it can back out of a parking spot in a busy parking lot, drive to your destination, and then park at your destination’s parking lot."

2. Elon says: "Probably only a few months"

3. Whole Mars Blog says: "FSD will probably be feature complete within a few months"
Here's Elon describing the process back during Autonomy Day 2019, this starts at 2:45:38 if it doesn't timestamp properly


So you have the following three steps (at that time):
  1. Feature complete
  2. Feature complete to the degree that Tesla thinks the driver doesn't need to pay attention
  3. Feature complete at a reliability level to also convince regulators that is true
Feature complete was going to happen in 2019, so I'm not entirely sure where we are now.

Step 2 is drivers needing to not touch the wheel, that still sounds like Level 2.

Step 3 with regulatory approval "in some jurisdictions", I'm assuming that would be robotaxi probably in the same cities Waymo operates? But not 100% sure about that, that could still be Level 2.
 
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Spelling out the basics:
This would be perfect as an ad on FB. Facebook I think would target the right people fairly well. Internet savvy but not savvy enough to know much about Tesla.

I stated this on PR thread 4 months ago. Depends on how much is spent but it is the only real way I can see Tesla reaching my 80 yr old parents who could well be buying a new car in the next few years. They don't use any other social media, one physical newspaper and minimal other internet usage.
 
This is the hardest traffic circle in NE Ohio, perhaps all of Ohio.

Lander Circle is 3 lanes, unmarked with a bus stop IN the circle (N.E.), 5 roads from the N.,S.,E.,W.&S.E. A gas station entrance(N.W.), a church entrance (S.W.), a bank entrance(S.E.), and a grocery store entrance (N.E.). It's hectic in the day time.

V11 (every version) was not fit to handle it more than every once in awhile, and it wasn't chill. Just imagine what happened when I took V12.3 through it FIVE consecutive times. Ladies & Gentlemen, I am thoroughly convinced V12.3 did better than most any human. I would describe it as confident, effortless, and if it continues to act as it did in the circle today...dare I saw...flawless!View attachment 1031214
Not wanting to diminish the achievements of FSD, but to people in the UK, that doesnt look vaguely challenging as a roundabout. We are basically the world champions at designing overcomplicated stupidly-confusing roundabouts. And boy do we love them. There are 7,244 roundabouts between me and the nearest shop, and I'm only slightly joking. Plus some of our mini roundabouts are physical, and some look identical but are just painted circles. Its just chaos.
The day FSD can easily breeze through one of our 'magic roundabouts', is the day I sell NVDA to buy more TSLA.
(They are basically roundabouts built from roundabouts)
 
I've been seeing tons of Tesla ads on YouTube over the last day or two as well.
So given they started “small”… either the adverts are working great and they decided to double down … or they don’t work and they decided to flood out of desperation.
Looking forward to all “experts” to tell us why is one or the other /s
 
It’s interesting to see Teslas response to the current sales situation. Apparently lowering prices and adding on freebies-supercharging, etc aren’t enough to move cars at the moment. I suspect ads plus raising prices is a test of a new strategy. I would expect increasing variation among the models will be tested if this doesn’t prove out-or even if it does. Perhaps the new performance 3 will test this.
 
Not wanting to diminish the achievements of FSD, but to people in the UK, that doesnt look vaguely challenging as a roundabout. We are basically the world champions at designing overcomplicated stupidly-confusing roundabouts. And boy do we love them. There are 7,244 roundabouts between me and the nearest shop, and I'm only slightly joking. Plus some of our mini roundabouts are physical, and some look identical but are just painted circles. Its just chaos.
The day FSD can easily breeze through one of our 'magic roundabouts', is the day I sell NVDA to buy more TSLA.
(They are basically roundabouts built from roundabouts)
British roads designed by Romans and modified for horse carriages? ;)
 
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Not wanting to diminish the achievements of FSD, but to people in the UK, that doesnt look vaguely challenging as a roundabout. We are basically the world champions at designing overcomplicated stupidly-confusing roundabouts. And boy do we love them. There are 7,244 roundabouts between me and the nearest shop, and I'm only slightly joking. Plus some of our mini roundabouts are physical, and some look identical but are just painted circles. Its just chaos.
The day FSD can easily breeze through one of our 'magic roundabouts', is the day I sell NVDA to buy more TSLA.
(They are basically roundabouts built from roundabouts)
That's interesting!

Similarly, not wanting to diminish the importance of the UK as a country, as a consumer of Teslas, only 20k per year are sold in the UK. It also accounts for 2% of global car sales. I'm not so sure about basing a TSLA investment thesis on the difficulty of UK roundabouts, whether or not FSD V12.3 can handle them. 🤪 After experiencing the change in behavior between v11 and v12, I would bet it can handle your roundabouts if the average human can - all 7,422 of them!!! If the Romans and horses could handle them, an AI spaceship on wheels should make it look like childsplay!!!!

Not advice: maybe sell some NVDA around $1091 - the Fourth Fibonacci and get ready to buy TSLA this summer! Congrats on your NVDA investment :)
 
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Are the ads touting features and prices, and/or providing informational and educational content that is so very much needed? I hope they have a little of all of these.

It is exciting to hear reports indicating an increasing ad volume as I've used Firefox with an Ad blocker installed for decades and would never know without feedback from folks here. Thanks!
 
To be clear, I'm only using the insane roundabout-of-roundabouts in the UK as a personal anecdote about the variability of driving challenges around the world :D.
The first few times I visited the US I found the roads hilarious. A city street that would be a few arm lengths wide in the UK (or almost any old European city) seemed about seventy miles wide in the US. No wonder you have rules about jaywalking, you need to ensure you have enough food and water when you set out on an epic trip to the other side of the road.
I still recall driving to Las Vegas, and it was just WEIRD how the road was dead straight for seemingly light years.

The difference between average US city (or intercity) driving, medieval town centers in Europe and... the absolute chaos in places like India and Africa definitely needs to be front and center for anyone putting 'robotaxis' in a spreadsheet. Driving in Kathmandu is very different to Manhattan.

Not that I think anybody except Tesla has a snowballs chance in a supernova of beating them to FSD, but I suspect we will have years of FSD in US cities before its universal across the world.
 
Here's Elon describing the process back during Autonomy Day 2019, this starts at 2:45:38 if it doesn't timestamp properly


So you have the following three steps (at that time):
  1. Feature complete
  2. Feature complete to the degree that Tesla thinks the driver doesn't need to pay attention
  3. Feature complete at a reliability level to also convince regulators that is true
Feature complete was going to happen in 2019, so I'm not entirely sure where we are now.

Step 2 is drivers needing to not touch the wheel, that still sounds like Level 2.

Step 3 with regulatory approval "in some jurisdictions", I'm assuming that would be robotaxi probably in the same cities Waymo operates? But not 100% sure about that, that could still be Level 2.
Thanks and good catch! He DID say this in the 2019 video. "...with regulatory approval in some jurisdictions". How else can people take this?
Thanks for the ammo, nobody believed me when I pitch this as a possibility. Lots of down votes (even angry at times).

Not to rehash it though, just do this instead because NOBODY knows. 🍿
It shouldn't be long, and I still think it's this year. It's criminal not to.