Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

Nope, still shows $12k:

View attachment 1031983

You likely visited a link to the Canadian site and have been switched.


Huh? He said site, and his screenshot shows that it is a browser... He is just looking at Canadian pricing.

My mistake. I was on the wrong country site

 

[uscbucsfan]

Huh? He said site, and his screenshot shows that it is a browser... He is just looking at Canadian pricing.

I was saying Tesla.com still had 12k. If there was an increase, it hasn't hit the site, yet. We often find out increases from source code early, but I guess not in this case.

 

[Tachyon]

Wow, $1 billion should provide enough liquidity to sell another 2,400 cars...

Or another 300 or 600 million bonus to the CEO.

 

[cliff harris]

I think wall st analysts who are 100% focused on valuing the company like any other car company from the 1980s... are going to be caught completely unaware by Teslas long term revenue from FSD subscriptions.
They absolutely 100% guaranteed will not see what is happening until there is a big jump in FSD revenue reflected in a quarterly financial statement.
Services and other revenue in Q4 2023 was approximately 10% of total revenue, almost exactly the same as the full year figure.
From the end year deck:

The biggest drivers of profit generation in 2023 were part sales, used vehicle sales, merchandise sales and pay-per-use supercharging. As our fleet continues to expand in the coming years, there is an opportunity for fleet-related services to become a more meaningful driver of profit generation.

In other words, FSD subscription revenue has been tiny up until now. As Tesla sell more cars at a lower price, the percentage of buyers who have the up-front $12,000 to buy out FSD completely is bound to fall, so I would expect that the percentage of FSD revenue that is subscription based will rise.
If Tesla continue to have no desire to impress wall st, they can continue to not draw attention to subscription revenue until it becomes awkward not to .

As someone with TSLA stock, I'd love to see official figures on revenue from superchargers, and from FSD subscriptions. However I get the impression Elon hates having people go through the company data with too fine granularity, so I reckon they will lump all this stuff together and hide it for a while, just as I expect they will not give us exact cybertruck production figures until its tens of thousands a month.

I didn't honestly expect 2024 to be the year of FSD revenue growth, but here we are!

 

[jschwefel]

Why are you driving and expecting the install to finish? Unless something has changed, installs require a WiFi connection, probably to completion, unless you're using your phone as a hotspot...

I’m sure you know this, but “Downloading” is different than “Installing”. The car has been downloading for about 36 hours now, so something is obviously stuck. Someone posted this can happen with hardware 4. I’ve tried a reboot, and I went into Service Mode, but I didn’t change anything. I’ll just wait for Tesla to answer the service request.

 

[Rohan]

That's interesting!

Similarly, not wanting to diminish the importance of the UK as a country, as a consumer of Teslas, only 20k per year are sold in the UK. It also accounts for 2% of global car sales. I'm not so sure about basing a TSLA investment thesis on the difficulty of UK roundabouts, whether or not FSD V12.3 can handle them. After experiencing the change in behavior between v11 and v12, I would bet it can handle your roundabouts if the average human can - all 7,422 of them!!! If the Romans and horses could handle them, an AI spaceship on wheels should make it look like childsplay!!!!

Not advice: maybe sell some NVDA around $1091 - the Fourth Fibonacci and get ready to buy TSLA this summer! Congrats on your NVDA investment

The figure is nearly 50k last year? Despite the entirely non functioning FSD

 

[MP3Mike]

Another "competitor" going down the shute:

Fisker shares halted as EV company navigates uncertain future

Fisker Inc., a California-based electric vehicle startup, declared bankruptcy TKDAY. The filing comes after the company had warned, in an earnings report in March, that it might not have enough cash to survive the year.

finance.yahoo.com

The money quote from the article:

Henrik Fisker admitted, in an interview with the industry newspaper Automotive News, that the Ocean had quality problems. He blamed the issues on software from various suppliers that worked poorly together. He said the problems were being addressed through software updates

Yep, if you don't do a good job on all of the software yourself you are screwed.

 

[Singuy]

Another "competitor" going down the shute:

Fisker shares halted as EV company navigates uncertain future

Fisker Inc., a California-based electric vehicle startup, declared bankruptcy TKDAY. The filing comes after the company had warned, in an earnings report in March, that it might not have enough cash to survive the year.

finance.yahoo.com

The money quote from the article:


Yep, if you don't do a good job on all of the software yourself you are screwed.

Phewww, I thought he was going to blame MKBHD.

Next major company on the chopping blocks is probably Lucid. Xpeng is not that far behind with 2.3B in cash. They are losing close to 1.8B a year and accelerating, recent FCF was -1.3B which was crazy.

Nio still has some runway to go but their losses are accelerating at -3.6B a year with no revenue growth. They have over 6B of cash left.

I honestly don't know what short seller's fascination with Tsla is when if you know just a little bit about the EV scene, there are so many better shorts you would make an absolute KILLING. Like there's a 100% chance some of these companies will go under, not even 99%. Yet they would die on this Tsla hill due to their hate for the brand and Elon....

 

[Hock1]

Via WuWa on YT:

I've trusted his sources in the past and this seems conclusive.

"Since the beginning of March this year, Tesla's Shanghai factory began to reduce production, production time from 6.5 days a week to 5 days. There have been reports of this reduction on Chinese social media, and we have confirmed the reduction through our inquiries. One employee told us that they had more time off, but they were concerned about the impact on their income if the cuts continued. According to media reports, the production cuts will continue until April, with no specific timeframe for resuming normal production. Some media have suggested that the reduction in production at Tesla's Shanghai plant could be caused by high global inventories, but in the first quarter of this year, we found that Tesla exports from Shanghai's Southport were still active. The reduction in production at the Shanghai plant seems to be related to sales in China. According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla China sold 60,365 units in February, a drop of about 19 per cent from last year. Deliveries of Tesla's China-built cars in January and February 2024 totalled 131,812, a drop of 6 per cent from 2023. In the first two months of this year, sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China rose 37.5 per cent year-on-year, but Tesla's shipments fell to 131,812 units, down 6 per cent year-on-year, which is also related to the opening of a price war for new energy vehicles in mainland China and increased competition. In China, Chinese brands of new energy vehicles have been selling at reduced prices, and manufacturers and continue to launch new new energy vehicles with great cost-effective ratio, and Tesla car models in addition to less, in the land of new energy vehicles during the price cuts, but also raise the price of the car, this operation is really unintelligible."

What is it with "New Energy Vehicles".? If you read BYD's breakdown of their various electric vehicles, I infer that NEVs are actually PHEVs. It's possible that NEVs are being counted as BEVs when necessary to create confusion? FUD.

 

[Knightshade]

What is it with "New Energy Vehicles".? If you read BYD's breakdown of their various electric vehicles, I infer that NEVs are actually PHEVs. It's possible that NEVs are being counted as BEVs when necessary to create confusion? FUD.

NEV includes both BEVs and PHEVs (FCEVs too technically not that many of those exist)--- if it can run primarily on electricity at some point it's an NEV even if it sometimes runs on something else. The term came out of China over a decade ago:

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/333531468216944327/pdf/612590WP0PRTM01BOX358342B01PUBLIC11.pdf

 

[Jim Holder]

Anyone know if new Tesla cars coming out of factories today require a calibration drive for FSD to function like in the most recent past (i.e., 25-50 miles; 1-1.5 hours)?

If so the new mandatory FSD demonstration on new deliveries will be impossible to implement

 

[Singuy]

Anyone know if new Tesla cars coming out of factories today require a calibration drive for FSD to function like in the most recent past (i.e., 25-50 miles; 1-1.5 hours)?

If so the new mandatory FSD demonstration on new deliveries will be impossible to implement

Not if they use specific FSD demo cars. It would be part of the pick up process, which is great. I feel like Tesla should be educating people about their autonomous features years ago. Elon most likely found that even with the 3 months of free FSD, most people are not enabling it and thought their AP is FSD. Not many people are versed in all the terminology and know what FSD even stands for. I can see folks, especially women and older folks, never going into the autopilot menu to mess around and enable FSD. This way Tesla employees can teach new purchasers what to do and expect. Many expect their tesla to take a turn or stop at a red light when they are on AP. When a Tesla doesn't...they never use it ever again.

 

[Jim Holder]

Not if they use specific FSD demo cars. It would be part of the pick up process, which is great. I feel like Tesla should be educating people about their autonomous features years ago. Elon most likely found that even with the 3 months of free FSD, most people are not enabling it and thought their AP is FSD. Not many people are versed in all the terminology and know what FSD even stands for. I can see folks, especially women and older folks, never going into the autopilot menu to mess around and enable FSD. This way Tesla employees can teach new purchasers what to do and expect. Many expect their tesla to take a turn or stop at a red light when they are on AP. When a Tesla doesn't...they never use it ever again.

Elon’s instructions said to download and install an activate on the customer’s car before handing it over (not a demo car)

 

[uscbucsfan]

Anyone know if new Tesla cars coming out of factories today require a calibration drive for FSD to function like in the most recent past (i.e., 25-50 miles; 1-1.5 hours)?

If so the new mandatory FSD demonstration on new deliveries will be impossible to implement

I'm not sure how they will handle it. Especially with new 2024 software builds coming with v11

 

[Singuy]

Elon’s instructions said to download and install an activate on the customer’s car, not a demo car

Haha well he may run into some road blocks. Like you said, there's a calibration process for every new car.

 

[SO16]

Haha well he may run into some road blocks. Like you said, there's a calibration process for every new car.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772340748194623647

Elon Musk


@elonmusk
Subscribe


I assume you’re kidding. We do need to trim down the time for camera calibration.


3:12 PM · Mar 25, 2024
·
35.7K
Views

 

[Jim Holder]

Haha well he may run into some road blocks. Like you said, there's a calibration process for every new car.

This may explain the decision-making process that took place @2am

 

[Singuy]

This may explain the decision-making process

View attachment 1032026

There are many solutions to this so on the scale of impulsiveness, it barely makes the cut when there are things like say...putting rocket boosters on a car....Pretty sure that made multiple department's head explode.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Another "competitor" going down the shute:

Fisker shares halted as EV company navigates uncertain future

Fisker Inc., a California-based electric vehicle startup, declared bankruptcy TKDAY. The filing comes after the company had warned, in an earnings report in March, that it might not have enough cash to survive the year.

finance.yahoo.com

The money quote from the article:


Yep, if you don't do a good job on all of the software yourself you are screwed.

So what happens with support for those who own these cars. Parts, software etc.

 

[Skipdd]

This is a great idea. Had a loaner model X plaid with FSD a week ago for a minor repair on my 2016 MX. Knowing all about fsd and having extensive autopilot use on my own car and recent rentals did not prepare me for the FSD experience. They are no longer selling a car, they are selling a service, and the service is driving. So to explain the limitations and features in real time as one actually drives or doesn't drive, whatever the case may be is going to be time well spent. Without it, will be difficult for casual fans and people who are reluctant to use it.

I have EAP and have upcoming Service. If they give me a car with FSD and a quick tutorial, it would be helpful. I’ve read many posts and watched videos about it, but have been waiting to see the preponderance of users be happy w it before I consider forking over the extra $ to upgrade. At some point I know we are going to need it as we are on the other side of the hill so to speak.. unless neuralink advances so quickly that they start marketing network enhancements to aging boomers