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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Could you expand on this? Are you saying Dojo will push Tesla to try to influence how TSMC designs and builds their next fabrication plant?
Used Tesla Model 3 stock nearly at an all-time high
Used Tesla Model 3 stock across Australia rises as more buyers make the switch to the upgraded Model 3.
thedriven.io
If a trader loses money trading options that's on him im afraid, all trading and investments are by nature risky. You need to be aware of that before clicking the buy button. But some simple advice when trading TSLA is never trade options, never trade on margin and only invest capital that you can see drop 50%+ and still hold (long term). This is similar to what Elon has advised many times.
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Are we now at a point where also the reality is labeled "FUD"? I am a genuine long term buy and hold investor, have been invested in TSLA since 2015, and I want fact based and balanced discussions here, and welcome both those negative and positive to the stock, short or long term. What's the point of an echo chamber?
cliff harris
Member
I havent seen this posted?
www.tipranks.com
F150 lightning is in real trouble.
Ford (NYSE:F) Cuts Jobs at F-150 Lightning Plant - TipRanks.com
Legacy automaker Ford (NYSE:F) announced that it’s cutting jobs at the Dearborn, Michigan factory responsible for the F-150 Lightning electric truck due to a dip in...
www.tipranks.com
I'm sure the mainstream media would rather do cartwheels than suggest that the cybertruck is now taking EV truck buyers attention. I reckon we will have to see 4x the CTs sold per quarter than the lightning before any mainstream media grudgingly accepts it. Will likely happen this year.
GhostSkater
Member
I'm a bit confused, so maybe someone can help me out here.
I was under the impression that for a while now all Model Ys delivered in (western) Europe were being built in Berlin. My daily observation during my commute in The Netherlands of trailers full of Model Ys going from east (Germany) to west (The Netherlands, Belgium, UK) supported this thesis. However, the last few weeks I've been seeing the opposite: trailers full of Model Ys going from west (the harbors of Rotterdam or Zeebrugge) to east (Germany, Denmark, maybe even Scandinavia).
The only conclusion I can draw: Shanghai is still exporting Model Ys to western Europe. Is this a new development or was I mistaken and have they been doing this all along?
I was under the impression that for a while now all Model Ys delivered in (western) Europe were being built in Berlin. My daily observation during my commute in The Netherlands of trailers full of Model Ys going from east (Germany) to west (The Netherlands, Belgium, UK) supported this thesis. However, the last few weeks I've been seeing the opposite: trailers full of Model Ys going from west (the harbors of Rotterdam or Zeebrugge) to east (Germany, Denmark, maybe even Scandinavia).
The only conclusion I can draw: Shanghai is still exporting Model Ys to western Europe. Is this a new development or was I mistaken and have they been doing this all along?
After watching Karpathy's recent interview I gleaned something I think is very important with regard to Dojo.
He was talking about how horribly inefficient today's GPU's are. Even NVIDIA's best are power hungry monsters that just don't do their jobs very well compared to the low-power human brain at only about 20 watts. It's obvious that when it comes to AI hardware, we are doing it wrong.
Clearly, there is unbelievable potential for improvement.
So the Dojo project can be justified on the basis that AI hardware is in its infancy. It's time for exploration. Like the gold rush, most will fail, but the one who digs in the right spot will be richly rewarded.
There's gold in them thar hills!
This is a real shame. It will be many years before Tesla can possibly make enough Cybertrucks to meet the market demand for pickups.
I've been wondering a lot if Ford is going to end up having a very close relationship with Tesla. Ron Baron keeps talking about how cars will be like PC's with "Intel inside". But it will be "Tesla inside". Ford is the prime candidate for licensing deals that could make this a reality.
Technical issues aside, if you could put a Ford F-150 body on a Tesla drive train and use Tesla's in-car operating system, you would have a winner that would benefit both companies and hugely benefit the mission.
Nvidia’s GPUs are general purpose AI devices. They are not as efficient as google’s TPUs at doing certain things. Google tailors its TPUs to its internal workloads. Likewise Dojo should be more efficient at video training because it is optimized for FSD.
Nvidia chips are incredibly efficient for what they are. Of course, there is always room for improvement on the chip design and integration side but the types of improvements in power you are describing require fundamental material science advancements in the process node. That is way beyond Tesla or Nvidia’s domain.
Not sure I follow, are you saying Tesla should invest in Dojo to be able to compete with NVIDIA in selling chips? Or how might Tesla be "richly rewarded" by this?
I thought the SR version still came from Shanghai, or at least some of them do.
Karpathy was suggesting that there is a ton of potential gain in just improving computer architecture to be more suitable to the task.
So yes, I think Karpathy would agree with most of what you said.
But I don't think he would say the potential solutions lie only with material science. A vastly more efficient way to "do AI" in silicon could still get us a lot closer to the goal. The reason for this optimism is because the enormous delta between the efficiency of the brain and the (in)efficiency of a GPU cluster suggests that huge gains could still be made with architecture alone.
I guess you could also make the argument that Karpathy is not a computer architecture guy. So what does he know?
At least until no one wants an old fashioned style truck. This will be similar to the change from tall skinny cars to low wide cars that happened mostly in the 1950s. Even as a kid back then I knew that tall and skinny meant an old car.
I'll preface this by saying that I'm not a computer architecture guy and I'm also not an AI guy. So my understanding is quite limited to my old-fashioned computer science training. But here is my best shot at this:
Dojo is competing with NVIDIA by using a different architecture. So there is a potential for Dojo to have a breakthrough that blows the doors off NVIDIA and the other players. Because we are so early in this field, it's possible for Dojo to become the undisputed leader in AI hardware. With such power would come enormous riches. If you can train AI models a lot more efficiently than everyone else, you will win the AI future. Whether that means "Dojo as a service" or just that Tesla has neural nets that vastly outperform everyone else, it boils down to huge profits.
But Elon is right when he tells us that this is a bit of a long shot. There are several players and we don't know who will win. So Dojo is high risk, high reward.
Dojo is never going to beat Nvidia across a wide suite of applications. It lacks the software ecosystem to be a general purpose solution. It’s
not going to be the “undisputed leader in AI hardware”. If all it ever does is be more efficient at FSD training than Nvidia it would be a huge win for Tesla.
Tesla has just barely managed to cross the minimum compute threshold for FSD. They still need to increase data and compute by another order of magnitude. Musk’s instructions to offer free FSD trials has as much to do with data as increasing take rate.
Training for full autonomy will probably require on the order of a million chips. At $30k per H100, that is $30 billion in NVDA chips. Now figure in the power required at about 500w per chip.
Each D1 chip probably costs Tesla about $5k and consumes half the power. Dojo will save Tesla tens of billions.
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