Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ellec]

Like for the same reason we try to find out where stock price is heading ahead of time... Sometimes the two seem to be related.

Just ignore if you´re not interested or don´t trust the source, constant nagging about that doesn´t help anyone.

I wasn't nagging just asking a question, I do follow him on X and appreciate the work he puts in and trust him regarding the numbers, but I would call it tracking rather than estimating. I don't agree with some of the conclusion he draws e.g demand being limited and find it overly negative sometimes.

 

[Usain]

I got the FSD trial invite last night, did a bunch of driving with it this morning (or rather I sat in the car while it drove itself!), I'm on the latest version of FSD and I'm still getting the nags. I don't think it's completely hands off yet, but the nags are certainly less frequent than I'm used to.

Are you on 12.3.2 or 12.3.3?

12.3.3 is the one that folks are saying might no longer have the nag.

 

[Usain]

no one is thinking of putting FSD in ICE.

I bet they are. I just wonder if Tesla would allow it.

 

[joh01652]

Ok


I was very excited about getting v12.3 on my 2018 model 3 rwd, and it does a lot of things better but far from what you describe.

Dips are detected now instead of plowed through, it respects the 15mph sign in my residential street instead of barreling down at 25, turns are a bit smoother and faster at stop signs but still need accelerator to be reasonable.

Yesterday after entering the freeway it failed to get out of the lane that led to the next exit and only after exiting it realized its mistake and was attempting to unsafely cross back over through the truck weigh station. I stopped it and completed the exit and reentered on the next one.

A blind left turn it tried to take was too risky for me, not sure if it would have worked without crash so I aborted it:

This is 2023.44.30.25 beta v12.3 so hopefully I get updates resulting in more like you describe - I also wonder if the less quality cameras make a difference. HW3 supposedly is not the reason, Elon x'ed that HW4 is emulating hw3 at this point still ?

Interesting you mention this.

So the original Tesla demo car I was scheduled to use was a 2021 Model 3. The employee I was assigned to took me out to show me the route Tesla wanted driven, as well as the parking lot to demonstrate auto park. But we could barely get out of Tesla's parking lot before we got the take-over-immediately-red-steering-wheel-of-death warning. Long story short we moved over to a 2024 Model S that the employee used the day before because he said it worked great. And sure enough, it worked great. I never did learn what was wrong with the 3.

I have a 2020 LR Y running 12.3 and I think it works as well as the 2024 S (the exception being my car doesn't auto park). I find it curious the range of experiences people have with their Tesla FSD, some say FSD is garbage on their cars, others like me think it's great. Did you get hardware 3.0 retrofitted into your 2018 3? 2020 was the first year of hardware 3.0, I made it absolutely clear with the sales rep at the time of purchase that I wanted the latest hardware with my FSD purchase. Could your cameras need a calibration?

 

[Usain]

Honestly the biggest threat to Tesla FSD may well be regulatory. Lobbyists may insist that this tech is in all cars, and insist Tesla license it at affordable prices.

I don't see that happening in the US. I don't know of any regulatory authority that could do that under current law.

As far as I know, the only way Tesla could be required to provide FSD at a certain price to OEMs would be to pass new legislation. I don't see that happening either. The US is pretty allergic to price fixing.

 

[joh01652]

Thanks for the write up and for helping out with deliveries!

I’m curious, did you use a delivery center Tesla car for the demo or the customer’s new car? I’m asking because I’m curious how calibration worked if it was the new car as it can take 30-60 minutes and lots of driving to even be ready to use FSD.

I used a Tesla-owned 2024 loaner S for the demo drives. All customers were instructed that their cameras needed about 30 minutes of drive time to calibrate the cameras before they could use FSD.

 

[UncaNed]

... "but happy to continue in the FSD appropriate thread"...

If only everyone thought this way.

 

[advocate8]

Fact: the average household income of a Tesla owner in 2024 is $150k per year. If they knew the real productivity value alone, they could afford it. Tesla Demographics 2024 by Age, Income, Gender, Home Value

@Drumheller Even if what you assert is true, the additional productivity of the worker with FSD will allow that person to outperform their peers. Most places incentivise those who perform, whether it be raises, bonuses, promotions, or other means. Let's not argue there is no value in increased productivity, ok?

That depends on how you define things like "priced in", "fair value", how much you believe in future ideas/products, and over what timeline.

On the most pessimistic end of that- A car company, that has basically stopped growing, is still wildly overpriced at Teslas current stock price right now.

On the most optimistic end of that- A mutli-dimensional tech company that will grow to 20M BEVs a year, a large share of WW stationary energy storage, a thriving and profitable insurance business, L5 self driving robotaxis, AI training as a service, and autonomous AI robots in mass production, all within a decade, is still wildly underpriced at Teslas current stock price right now.



There's definitely a few people on each end of that spectrum in this thread, and many others somewhere in between.

A few more charts will fix that.

 

[joh01652]

Did your mom try it yet? I'm dying to know how that goes.

No, she lives almost 2,000 miles away. My point is, though, that my car drives so well now I'd let her try it; with previous versions I'm not sure how she'd react (or if at all) should the car suddenly and unexpectedly swerve into a right turn lane, which it was apt to do frequently before v12. She's 75 and never has had fast reaction instincts...

 

[Usain]

To be clear, but blunt, what I'm talking about is when Tesla starts with commercial robotaxi rides (which will happen in waves).

I'm assuming wave 1 happens with an in-car supervising driver but is picking up paying passengers. I'd expect this to happen this year **IF** we continue to see builds every ~2 weeks. Obviously there's more detail there, but happy to continue in the FSD appropriate thread. I add this here to be useful for this particular thread on the weekend.

It's amazing how fast this is all happening and how fast the mood on this forum has changed.

Back in November, I posted about the upcoming V12. I said, "It is ~100% certain that Robotaxi FSD can be solved with Tesla's V12 approach." Boy did I get a lot of flak for that one.

When the first V12 reviews started coming in, I said essentially what you are saying. I said Tesla would start a geofenced robotaxi trial with safety drivers, then full on robotaxi. Got a ton of flak for that one too. Maybe it was a problem with the word, "geofenced"?

I said that it would happen in 1 to 3 years.

Now you are saying that if we see continue to see builds every ~2 weeks it will happen this year! (And I kind of agree as long as Tesla is ready to start. My mood is changing too.)

This year. Wow.

 

[Usain]

It's 60 Minutes Australia...?

I've watched several of their videos. They've actually done some good reporting.

However, I smell a hit piece coming from 60 Minutes Australia. And it won't stop there.

FSD is getting good. A lot of powerful people are going to be threatened by this breakthrough technology.

 

[Mengy]

Are you on 12.3.2 or 12.3.3?

12.3.3 is the one that folks are saying might no longer have the nag.

Car is on 2024.3.10 and FSD is on 12.3.3 and I honestly have more nags than I ever did on Autopilot. The nags on FSD are about every 10-20 seconds for me. Other than that FSD is performing fantastically, I honestly can't believe how good it is at driving so far!

 

[Ellec]

I've watched several of their videos. They've actually done some good reporting.

However, I smell a hit piece coming from 60 Minutes Australia. And it won't stop there.

FSD is getting good. A lot of powerful people are going to be threatened by this breakthrough technology.

Any accident where FSD is involved whether or not it was a factor in the accident is going to get splashed all over the media. However the stats will win out and that's what regulators will base their decisions on (I hope)

 

[Usain]

Car is on 2024.3.10 and FSD is on 12.3.3 and I honestly have more nags than I ever did on Autopilot. The nags on FSD are about every 10-20 seconds for me. Other than that FSD is performing fantastically, I honestly can't believe how good it is at driving so far!

That's so disappointing. And so awesome at the same time.

 

[Singuy]

Any accident where FSD is involved whether or not it was a factor in the accident is going to get splashed all over the media. However the stats will win out and that's what regulators will base their decisions on (I hope)

I think many people this Easter will show off their FSD to friends and families who think Elons is full of sh%$ due to CNN and may change their mind. The more negative the media is on Elon's products, the more they are exposed for being untrust worthy bags of Sh%#.

 

[Buckminster]

The forthcoming eclipse dedicated thread:
Wiki - Eclipse Viewing Discussion
Opportunity to visit Tesla facilities etc.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774541233932603553

Chuck's best ever drive by the looks of it.

 

[Quesder]

I got V12.3.2 this morning and had 3 drives today. The first two are round trips to a friend's house, 25 min one way. They were smooth, except it hesitated too much on stop signs.
The last one is to drive out of a plaza and back home, and I had to take over. When at the exit of the plaza, half of the car head got into the lane of the main road to turn right, but the coming cars from the left doesn't allow it to go more. The following cars were all doing so, although now they had to shift to their left a bit to avoid my car. They were slow enough and FSD could drive and turn forcefully but it didn't. So half of the car head stuck in the lane for more than 30 seconds; that was embarassing.

Some cars were actually turning right to go into the plaza with right turn light on (that is, would pass my left side), and those were good chances for FSD to get into the lane. but FSD apparently couldn't understand what the others right turn light means.
Finally, I saw another canr was about to turn right to get in the plaze, and I took over the car and finished my right turn.

Things like this could be criticized and exaggerated by the media, so don't expect TSLA to do too good soon.

 

[DCGOO]

Are you on 12.3.2 or 12.3.3?

12.3.3 is the one that folks are saying might no longer have the nag.

I just received 12.3.3 today, and can confirm it still nags just fine.

 

[Stormy24]

I got V12.3.2 this morning and had 3 drives today. The first two are round trips to a friend's house, 25 min one way. They were smooth, except it hesitated too much on stop signs.
The last one is to drive out of a plaza and back home, and I had to take over. When at the exit of the plaza, half of the car head got into the lane of the main road to turn right, but the coming cars from the left doesn't allow it to go more. The following cars were all doing so, although now they had to shift to their left a bit to avoid my car. They were slow enough and FSD could drive and turn forcefully but it didn't. So half of the car head stuck in the lane for more than 30 seconds; that was embarassing.

Some cars were actually turning right to go into the plaza with right turn light on (that is, would pass my left side), and those were good chances for FSD to get into the lane. but FSD apparently couldn't understand what the others right turn light means.
Finally, I saw another canr was about to turn right to get in the plaze, and I took over the car and finished my right turn.

Things like this could be criticized and exaggerated by the media, so don't expect TSLA to do too good soon.

Lucky your on an outdated version