Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

FWIW this seems more accurately to be "Fremont sucks at refreshes"-- S, X, and now 3 all completely screwed up and taking forever.

Shanghai seemed to have no issues doing the same refresh on the 3 though.

Who's even running Fremont these days and why do they still have a job?

I wouldnt be too hard on fremont. And I say this as someone who drove a rattly fremont S and now a perfectly assembled shanghai Y.
Fremont isn't an EV factory. its a horrible frankenstein mess of poorly connected buildings, all designed to do something different to their current usage. Its in the wrong place, the wrong shape, the wrong design, and the wrong state. There is a good reason that gigatexas was built where it is, with the layout it has.

I've said before that in the very long run, Tesla will either abandon fremont, or demolish the entire site and build from scratch. The production process for an EV is so different, logistically from an ICE that its unsustainable. Maybe eventually it will be S/X/Roadster only.

However, have faith. Remind yourself that the overwhelming majority of US build legacy auto EVs are being built in places like fremont. Tesla's worst factory is legacy autos best.

I look forward to a time when berlin, texas, mexico and shanghai are so ramped and optimised that even us investors forget there is also a tesla factory at fremont .

 

[cliff harris]

It's a matter than can affect the share price. IMO, it belongs in this investment thread.

Only if something new happens. The 'does elon's politics affect sales' debate is hardly new, nor has anything changed in the last few months.

Mod edit: We (mods) agree with this. There are rules. If one doesn't like the rules, see Figure 1. --ggr

 

[CreativeName]

Troy did very well. I never understood the anti-Troy vibe on this forum.
For anyone that truly believes in the long term outcome, this is a buying opportunity.

Congrats to him! I was concerned his patreon revenue might drop.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Agreed. As much as I dislike being involved in politics, Elon brought us all here. Because it's important to the mission.

My posts are getting deleted. I'm not a fan of censorship. If you care to follow me directly, you can on @x. My handle:
@Ktowntslafan. I appreciate all of you. Cheers.

 

[Linkmeup]

Only if something new happens. The 'does elon's politics affect sales' debate is hardly new, nor has anything changed in the last few months.

Mod edit: We (mods) agree with this. There are rules. If one doesn't like the rules, see Figure 1. --ggr

Just a question to the mods, Tesla reported a political conflict (Red Sea and Eco Terrorists) on their quarterly deliveries report as a reason for the miss.

Does that mean talk about politics is material here in this thread?

Personally, I think 2024 is one of the most important years in human history (if not at least US History). Between AGI, Climate Change, etc...the next 4-5 years is going to dictate a lot of the path forward for our society. That's going to affect the market.

I'd like to propose a separate thread for the 2024 US election, and its relationship to TSLA, in this investment forum.

Just saying - Elon's politics might not be important, but the relevancy of all trickle down effects from climate change / path to sustainability ... includes the 2024 US election. I'm not sure where it belongs, but maybe its worth at least having a thread on the topic. Who knows? It might clear up the incidences, that the mods don't like currently, of talking about Elon's politics in the main thread too.

The "market" keeps showing there's demand for this content by investors time and time again. That doesn't mean it needs to be prominent in the main thread, but we even have an off-topic galore thread. What's the primary set of issues that mods don't like about keeping politics entirely off the forum?

 

[Krugerrand]

Does not mean it's real -

You meant doesn’t mean it’s ‘not’ real. Correct?

If so, I’m not arguing what is or is not real. It’s just another example of someone believing their reality is everyone else’s reality. It’s not. And you can’t even put numbers to it. 3? 10? 420? 10,069? people believe this, therefore that.

Additionally, most arguments made against Tesla and Elon are arguments that can be made against other companies and CEOs at some point in time. These aren’t special or unique arguments today or tomorrow. Much of it is anecdotal jabbering in an attempt to turn it into some factual, quantitative number that can be used to prove one’s opinion of the situation.

 

[Drumheller]

Tesla had the most incentives I've seen on the S/X last Q. Free color or interior color upgrade, $1k off inventory, $10k SC miles if you are trading in a car, plus FSD transfer.

It didn't seem to help much. Maybe they offer more this Q.

All of which increased my desire to buy a Plaid S. However, the reality is that my wages have lagged far behind inflation and I cannot afford a new Plaid S without selling TSLA, which I do not wish to do at this price.

If there are demand problems (and I'm not convinced there are as Tesla is sending mixed signals), then I think it's a mix of factors but my opinion is that the economy is the biggest issue.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wrong. https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0401/2024040100494.pdf

Aware. YoY distinction vs QoQ distinction. Keep catching up. Eventually you’ll get to the end, just maybe bring a snack with you.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

My posts are getting deleted. I'm not a fan of censorship. If you care to follow me directly, you can on @x. My handle:
@Ktowntslafan. I appreciate all of you. Cheers.

It's a matter than can affect the share price. IMO, it belongs in this investment thread.

Politics are absolutely directly linked to Tesla's success as a company. Full stop. I will remove myself now. Love y'all and thanks again.

 

[Skryll]

Looks like April 23rd is webcast - that's a long time to wait for clarification

Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for First Quarter 2024

AUSTIN, Texas, April 2, 2024 – In the first quarter, we produced over 433,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 387,000 vehicles. We deployed 4,053 MWh of energy storage products in Q1, the highest quarterly deployment yet.

ir.tesla.com

 

[Thekiwi]

Only if something new happens. The 'does elon's politics affect sales' debate is hardly new, nor has anything changed in the last few months.

Mod edit: We (mods) agree with this. There are rules. If one doesn't like the rules, see Figure 1. --ggr

Tesla is experiencing softening sales in some territories where the subject that cant be discussed may be having the most impact.

Now we have Tesla experiencing the first year on year drop in quarterly total deliveries since the pandemic.

There have been numerous examples right here on TMC of Tesla fans & investors saying that they themselves (along with other people they know) who are no longer considering buying Teslas because of it. Think how massive a change that is to turn someone from a fan/investor into a non-consumer embarrassed to own the product.

The change is that it has gone from occasional anecdotes a year or two ago, to now a much wider phenomenon that is talked about EVERYWHERE in the Tesla investment community (and wider general investment and news outlets), everywhere EXCEPT for this thread.

I understand not wanting to clutter this thread up with purely political discussions. However where it is starting to impact tesla revenue and brand then it seems crazy not to discuss that particular impact on an investor thread, especially on the day of a large P&D report disappointment.

 

[Stretch2727]

$250 a year per car for us and about 2x what we would pay in gas tax at 30 MPG. Phase out of the sales tax exemption on EV's is coming this year but not finalized.

New Jersey Introduces Annual EV Fee, Punishing Owners Who Go Green

We examine a new law introduced in New Jersey that will initially impose a $250 annual electric vehicle registration fee and increase by $10 annually.

insideevs.com

 

[Krugerrand]

$250 a year per car for us and about 2x what we would pay in gas tax at 30 MPG. Phase out of the sales tax exemption on EV's is coming this year but not finalized.

New Jersey Introduces Annual EV Fee, Punishing Owners Who Go Green

We examine a new law introduced in New Jersey that will initially impose a $250 annual electric vehicle registration fee and increase by $10 annually.

insideevs.com

So that won’t have any effect on EV adoption nor other states imposing hefty EV ownership taxes. Got to pay for those roads, bridges, premium writing utensils for the offices.

 

[Curt Renz]

I agree that we should not be arguing politics in this thread. But I feel it is proper do discuss the merits of the CEO of our publicly traded company frequently tweeting his opinions of political and social matters. Some market analysts have just recently suggested that this could have been negatively affecting Tesla product sales and share price. Naturally, on a day in which sales have been reported slowing and the share price dives, it would not be surprising for the matter to be heavily discussed in this investment thread.

 

[Ktowntslafan]

Tesla is experiencing softening sales in some territories where the subject that cant be discussed may be having the most impact.

Now we have Tesla experiencing the first year on year drop in quarterly total deliveries since the pandemic.

There have been numerous examples right here on TMC of Tesla fans & investors saying that they themselves (along with other people they know) who are no longer considering buying Teslas because of it. Think how massive a change that is to turn someone from a fan/investor into a non-consumer embarrassed to own the product.

The change is that it has gone from occasional anecdotes a year or two ago, to now a much wider phenomenon that is talked about EVERYWHERE in the Tesla investment community (and wider general investment and news outlets), everywhere EXCEPT for this thread.

I understand not wanting to clutter this thread up with purely political discussions. However where it is starting to impact tesla revenue and brand then it seems crazy not to discuss that particular impact on an investor thread, especially on the day of a large P&D report disappointment.

Respectfully,

I've given thousands of rides to blue collar dudes who drive pick up trucks. These guys hate Teslas, until they have a ride with me. These dudes vote a certain way.

Elon is brilliant. The Cybertruck is a master stroke of that brilliance on display for all of us to see.

Politics is an important part of the investment discussion. For so many reasons. I would like to discuss more here, but will temper myself for the time being. I hope we can open this thread up to respectful political discussion.

Here's a great video from Farzad:

 

[willow_hiller]

The change is that it has gone from occasional anecdotes a year or two ago, to now a much wider phenomenon

I understand your concern, but I have yet to see any evidence of a wider phenomenon that doesn't rest on anecdote.

Even the Reuters article about the "consideration" scores doesn't really show a trend. They had two data points in the 60s in 2021, and it's essentially been steady in the 40s for the subsequent 28 months of data.

The variation after 2021 is probably all well within the margin of error.

I have seen a lot of anxiety about Elon's politics, but this thread has also weathered a lot of anxiety about how other problems would torpedo the company (i.e. service). As long as Tesla keeps delivering on manufacturing and FSD, I'm going to need some very convincing data to change my mind that the company will not continue to do well in the long term.

 

[EVNow]

Uber has a problem in that it never comes most of the time. It's not something you can rely on to get to work every day.

And of course Tesla is well known for being on time always

BTW, I'm surprised you say that. I have hardly ever had problems. Ofcourse I use it only on vacations, not for daily commute.

 

[Krugerrand]

What would be your ideal resolution of "The Elon Problem?" As an investor we have two option: Sell or hold. I don't see Elon changing. In aggregate we're better off with Elon than without him.

I see no point in people rhyming off what they think a resolution is to a problem that people don’t even agree on is a problem necessarily AND that has zero chance of being implemented because we don’t have that kind of control.

Unless someone wants to go ask the boss man over there to put up a poll with all resolutions suggested listed for everyone to vote on.

You listed two options. There’s another: buy. I’ll be doing a bit of that one. Then I’ll engage in option four: wait a bit.

 

[Musskiah]

Q220 and Q222 drops were related to COVID shutdowns, and the inventory trends were quite different at the time

This time we had an unexpected shutdown in Berlin. And delivery issues through the Red Sea. #remindme in Q2

 

[CreativeName]

It's been a concern since late 2022 for those paying attention.

I don't know how anyone thinks this is anything other than a disaster right now.

Today is like your Super Bowl. I know you’ve been hoping for this day for a long time; I hope you enjoy it!