Agreed. Not all gaps get filled or need to.I have yet to see a good reason why “filling the gap” is even a thing.
Just wondering what wisdom @Krugerrand can share about recent TSLA price action.
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Agreed. Not all gaps get filled or need to.I have yet to see a good reason why “filling the gap” is even a thing.
First Principle analysis! Brilliant. Thank you!Tesla California sales in 2023 are a good metric for testing whether the CEO's political activism has caused mass left-wing aversion to the Tesla brand such that vehicle sales have been harmed.
Why this matters:
Overall, Tesla has continued to maintain a dominant position in the California EV market in the last couple of years. Tesla's share of the general light-duty vehicle (LDV) market in California is now 13%. This all-time record for Tesla is an increase from 11.7% last year and it is second only to Toyota's 15.7%. Tesla accomplished this with a four-vehicle menu that leaves major gaps in the market unserved, such as pickup trucks, full-size SUVs, compact sedans and compact hatchbacks. In 2023, Tesla achieved 61% BEV market share by selling 230k out of 376k total BEVs with at least 200 miles of nominal range. Tesla outsold the next-best competitor, Chevrolet, by almost 12x. This is approximately the same ratio of Tesla to the 2nd-place BEV competitor that Tesla has enjoyed across the US as a whole for many years. Although 61% is down significantly from 73% from last year, Tesla still posted significant 8.2% growth statewide in 2022. Tesla's market share declined because everyone else grew faster.
- California's government provides some of the most comprehensive and detailed EV sales data of any regional market in the world
- California is the most prominent left-leaning state in America
- California is the leading EV market in America in terms of both total volume and EV market share, and since the very beginning it has been a leading indicator for EV growth trends elsewhere
- California and SF Bay Area politics have been the specific target of much of Elon's political activism since 2020
California Energy Commission (2023). California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics. Data last updated [24 Jan 2024]. Retrieved [2 Apr 2024] from Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics.
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All numbers in thousands.
Year Tesla % BEV Share Tesla % LDV Share Tesla Sold LDV Sold BEV Sold 2013 42% 0.5% 9 1,773 21 2014 24% 0.4% 7 1,969 30 2015 30% 0.5% 11 2,217 38 2016 45% 0.8% 17 2,207 38 2017 38% 0.8% 17 2,183 46 2018 72% 3.1% 69 2,252 95 2019 74% 3.3% 70 2,154 95 2020 79% 4.5% 83 1,864 106 2021 75% 6.8% 137 2,016 184 2022 73% 11.6% 213 1,835 292 2023 61% 12.9% 230 1,786 380
Tesla's decline in California market share may be disappointing but it is understandable. Both of the US factories, but especially Fremont, are close to maximum output for the S3XY models for the existing production lines. Also, the S3XY models are already so dominant in California that they may be close to their demand limits under current macroeconomic conditions. The Model Y and Model 3 were the #1 and #2 best-selling vehicles of any kind in California, by a wide margin. The Y sold slightly more than the RAV-4, CR-V, Rogue and Tucson combined. There still may be substantial room for this ceiling to grow over time, as awareness increases and the Supercharger network and service center network continue to expand.
Let's zoom out for context:
- 61% share is still double what it used to be before the Model 3 was introduced
- Competitors emerged from the chip shortage in 2023 and thus were much less supply constrained than during the pandemic. The entire automotive industry had a glut of supply, prices dropped across the industry, and dealership inventories grew.
- 2017 saw a similarly large drop in CA BEV market share when S&X sales peaked and 3 was still in the beginning of Production Hell.
- California is the leading state in the USA for selling compliance EVs at a loss, because California is a huge market with stringent regulatory requirements and it is the most lucrative automotive market in the nation. Tesla is selling into a tilted playing field because customers are subsidizing their losses with earnings from ICE and hybrid sales, but this situation won't last forever.
- 2023 was another weak year of growth for the overall automotive market in California. Overall LDV sales were 10% lower than in the peak years of 2015 through 2018.
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Source: California New Car Dealers Association & Experian
California has a overall liberal and leftist population supermajority, but it's a big state with almost 40 million people living it it and it is politically, geographically, culturally, ethnically and economically diverse. The populous coastal counties that comprise the major urban areas are heavily left-leaning, whereas the rural counties are heavily right-leaning, and many other counties are somewhere in between.
In the leftist urban and coastal counties, Tesla did have a decline in their BEV market share from its peak in 2020. In 2023 alone, it declined from 74% to 61%. However, this decline was right in line with the overall trend for California in which Tesla's market share dropped from 73% to 61%. Also, Tesla still showed growth in these left-leaning counties. The only exception was San Mateo county just south of San Francisco and just north of Silicon Valley. San Mateo for some reason had sales collapse by 38% in 2023. I don't have any idea why this happened, but San Mateo is a fairly small market and it was heavily saturated with Teslas until 2022. Despite that lone outlier, overall in the most left-wing counties in California, Tesla actually grew their sales volume by 8.1%, which was almost exactly equal to the Tesla's statewide sales growth of 8.2%.
Even with wide variation in regional demographics, culture and politics, Tesla overall increased sales volume in California pretty evenly throughout the state. Tesla grew the same in woke, socialist metropolises, in liberal suburbs, and in MAGA Trumpland (which does exist in California). Tesla even grew sales by 5% in San Francisco county, which is the bluest county in the state, is the epicenter of the Twitter/X and OpenAI controversy, and has been directly accused by Elon of propagating a radical "woke mind virus" that will destroy civilization as we know it.
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County 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 % Change YoY Los Angeles 16809 20902 35844 61573 58374 -5% Orange 9503 11628 18122 26945 31444 17% Santa Clara 10122 8963 13072 19908 24593 24% San Diego 5585 7352 11979 16512 19882 20% Alameda 5714 5418 8418 12444 15039 21% Riverside 2031 2917 6111 8961 10635 19% San Bernardino 1694 2241 4604 7495 9271 24% Contra Costa 2882 3376 5427 7700 8550 11% Sacramento 1351 1783 3280 5770 7316 27% San Mateo 3412 3458 5085 11230 6937 -38% San Francisco 1933 2801 3806 4914 5171 5% Ventura 1509 1783 3081 4507 4759 6% San Joaquin 670 846 1819 3062 4610 51%
Unfortunately, Tesla grew sales in California with the help of large price reductions. However, Tesla also reduced prices by the same amount all across the US and similar amounts in all major EV markets around the world. Also, competitors cut prices on their EVs shortly after Tesla did, and inventory has been piling up at their dealerships. It's important to note that Tesla's online ordering and transparent pricing means that we know they were selling vehicles at the same prices throughout California.
All of this evidence casts major doubt on the belief that Elon's political activism has been the primary cause of growth slowdown and price reductions. It is questionable whether it even is a net factor at all. There has been no observed correlation between the political bias of a local market and Tesla's BEV market share. It appears that the broader tough market conditions have affected the whole EV market in the state and worldwide, with BYD the only other player looking decent in 2023. That being said, a lack of correlation doesn't necessarily mean there was no effect. The urban and coastal areas in California have many differences from the rural areas, so maybe Elon's antics were hurting demand in the metro areas but some other factors were tailwinds in these same areas. Still, the simpler and more likely explanation is that the politics did not have a majorly negative effect. Either way, end result is the same and the data shows no cause for alarm.
The whole AP team was in the front rowInstaclassic 9 years ago
Somewhat concerning. But a good data point. Another n=1; I Bought last quarter and having in-stock available made pressing buy way easier. IMHO; some in stock can be a long tern boost to sales. Should also help with the end of quarry rush.There is a new Tesla sales/service/delivery center in our area in southern California
New Teslas are being stored nearby at an unused dealership lot. It is packed full, with about 200 new Teslas, and trucks are dropping off more at least daily. The last truck dropped off updated 3s. I do a drive by at least every other day, and it keeps getting more full.
New Teslas are also being stored at a nearby vacant restaurant parking lot with no fencing.
I thought that with the $7,500 point of sale Federal tax credit, Model Ys would be flying off the shelf.
I believe that high interest rates are really slowing the market. Low credit scores are paying at least 10%, and even high credit scores are at least 7.5%
Also auto insurance rates are very high, and hearing of some insurance companies not providing auto insurance at all any more in California, although I thought that only applied to housing.
InstajealousThe whole AP team was in the front row
I'm pro "filling the gap" for the recordI have yet to see a good reason why “filling the gap” is even a thing
Meanwhile, at California's Disneyland in Anaheim, where we're woke as hell and we're not gonna take it anymore,Is she on the Disney board?
I go to Disney World quite often. If you go inside the Test Track attraction (sponsored by Chevrolet), you see a showroom for Chevy vehicles. They used to always have a Bolt on display. I was there a few weeks ago and there was not one single EV at all. Take from that what you will.
I think this is a very important point. If this was a clear one time impact of something - supply chain disruption for example -the Tesla team would be on calls with the stock analysts to discuss this which should bring down estimates but with a caveat.In any case I just want more info. This quarter everyone’s estimates were off by a huge margin. This indicates that nobody outside the company has a good understanding of what happened in Q1. I see no good reason to assume why the same people would have a better understanding today than they did yesterday just because the headline numbers were released.
I remember when I was 10 year old in Disneyland in 1986 (man, the ticket was only $20), my friend and I were eager to drive the Autopia gas car. We ended up couldn't because we ran out of time, and that left a bad memory for my Disneyland trip. The reason is that, driving a real ICE car, not an electric toy car, was a dream for young boys.Meanwhile, at California's Disneyland in Anaheim, where we're woke as hell and we're not gonna take it anymore,
some great EV news from Tomorrowland:
Column: Disneyland is ditching gas cars at Autopia. It's a great first step for Tomorrowland — Los Angeles Times
The classic ride is moving toward electric vehicles. But at its parks and in its movies, Disney can do more to champion climate solutions.apple.news
Back when I developed self driving cars, our solution was to crash into the humans furthest distance away no matter the number of them, if they were old/young, criminals/priests etc.Regarding FSD Ashoks latest statement about solving the trolley problem , refers to conflicting risks when making decisions while driving
In the context of Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the "trolley problem" could refer to a difficult decision that an autonomous vehicle's AI system might face. For example, in a situation where an accident is unavoidable, the AI system might have to choose between two potential outcomes: one where it swerves to avoid hitting a group of pedestrians but potentially causes harm to the vehicle's occupants, or one where it maintains its course to protect its occupants but potentially harms the pedestrians. This dilemma is similar to the trolley problem, as it involves making a difficult ethical decision with potentially life-or-death consequences.
Interesting dilemma to solve , one that a computer can make quicker than a human most likely
I liked that, very interesting to see how differently people see moral dilemmas, provided that those who answer it are honest. I killed 66 people.Back when I developed self driving cars, our solution was to crash into the humans furthest distance away no matter the number of them, if they were old/young, criminals/priests etc.
But I guess the Tesla solution to the problem is to do whatever humans do. And if regulators have a different idea they will have to let Tesla know and Tesla can filter to only include humans who do that in their dataset.
If you want to see what you would do and compare your decisions to 8M other humans here is a quick test:
IndeedAll isn't gloom and doom, Volvo Cars had a great March and a good Q1, increasing total sales with 12% compared to Q1 2023 Volvo Cars achieves monthly sales record in March The sales increase of BEV in Europe looks especially impressive.
I quit answering at the rich man offering you a 500k bribe because I wanted to have more information. Who are these people? Retroactively, I wanted to know a lot more about the people in the previous dilemma's as well. Must say I was surprised about the percentage of people choosing to let a bunch of people die to protect their life savings. Although again it would depend on who. Any villains involved, or people who hang the toilet roll facing to the wall?I liked that, very interesting to see how differently people see moral dilemmas, provided that those who answer it are honest. I killed 66 people.