Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jim Holder]

I have yet to see a good reason why “filling the gap” is even a thing.

Agreed. Not all gaps get filled or need to.

Just wondering what wisdom @Krugerrand can share about recent TSLA price action.

 

[ABCTG]

There is a new Tesla sales/service/delivery center in our area in southern California

New Teslas are being stored nearby at an unused dealership lot. It is packed full, with about 200 new Teslas, and trucks are dropping off more at least daily. The last truck dropped off updated 3s. I do a drive by at least every other day, and it keeps getting more full.
New Teslas are also being stored at a nearby vacant restaurant parking lot with no fencing.

I thought that with the $7,500 point of sale Federal tax credit, Model Ys would be flying off the shelf.

I believe that high interest rates are really slowing the market. Low credit scores are paying at least 10%, and even high credit scores are at least 7.5%
Also auto insurance rates are very high, and hearing of some insurance companies not providing auto insurance at all any more in California, although I thought that only applied to housing.

 

[Musskiah]

Instaclassic 9 years ago

 

[jamaatta]

This is what almost whole Europe is waiting. And especially here in north, most of the mortrage loans are tied to 12 month (or 3/6 month) Euro interest rates. The whole economy is at the moment deep frozen. For example building of houses is at the lowest level since 1990's.

"Eurozone inflation fell more than economists had anticipated last month, further solidifying expectations of monetary policy easing by the European Central Bank in the upcoming months."

Eurozone inflation falls more than expected: Green light for ECB cuts?

Eurostat data for March 2024 revealed a drop in annual consumer price inflation to 2.4%, below the expected 2.6% and hitting a four-month low. Market foresees four ECB rate cuts by end-2024, with the first expected in June.

www.euronews.com

 

[CaliBear1]

Tesla California sales in 2023 are a good metric for testing whether the CEO's political activism has caused mass left-wing aversion to the Tesla brand such that vehicle sales have been harmed.

Why this matters:

• California's government provides some of the most comprehensive and detailed EV sales data of any regional market in the world
• California is the most prominent left-leaning state in America
• California is the leading EV market in America in terms of both total volume and EV market share, and since the very beginning it has been a leading indicator for EV growth trends elsewhere
• California and SF Bay Area politics have been the specific target of much of Elon's political activism since 2020

Overall, Tesla has continued to maintain a dominant position in the California EV market in the last couple of years. Tesla's share of the general light-duty vehicle (LDV) market in California is now 13%. This all-time record for Tesla is an increase from 11.7% last year and it is second only to Toyota's 15.7%. Tesla accomplished this with a four-vehicle menu that leaves major gaps in the market unserved, such as pickup trucks, full-size SUVs, compact sedans and compact hatchbacks. In 2023, Tesla achieved 61% BEV market share by selling 230k out of 376k total BEVs with at least 200 miles of nominal range. Tesla outsold the next-best competitor, Chevrolet, by almost 12x. This is approximately the same ratio of Tesla to the 2nd-place BEV competitor that Tesla has enjoyed across the US as a whole for many years. Although 61% is down significantly from 73% from last year, Tesla still posted significant 8.2% growth statewide in 2022. Tesla's market share declined because everyone else grew faster.

California Energy Commission (2023). California Energy Commission Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics. Data last updated [24 Jan 2024]. Retrieved [2 Apr 2024] from Zero Emission Vehicle and Infrastructure Statistics.

View attachment 1034703

View attachment 1034868

Spoiler: Tesla sales figures table

All numbers in thousands.

Year	Tesla % BEV Share	Tesla % LDV Share	Tesla Sold	LDV Sold	BEV Sold
2013	42%	0.5%	9	1,773	21
2014	24%	0.4%	7	1,969	30
2015	30%	0.5%	11	2,217	38
2016	45%	0.8%	17	2,207	38
2017	38%	0.8%	17	2,183	46
2018	72%	3.1%	69	2,252	95
2019	74%	3.3%	70	2,154	95
2020	79%	4.5%	83	1,864	106
2021	75%	6.8%	137	2,016	184
2022	73%	11.6%	213	1,835	292
2023	61%	12.9%	230	1,786	380

Tesla's decline in California market share may be disappointing but it is understandable. Both of the US factories, but especially Fremont, are close to maximum output for the S3XY models for the existing production lines. Also, the S3XY models are already so dominant in California that they may be close to their demand limits under current macroeconomic conditions. The Model Y and Model 3 were the #1 and #2 best-selling vehicles of any kind in California, by a wide margin. The Y sold slightly more than the RAV-4, CR-V, Rogue and Tucson combined. There still may be substantial room for this ceiling to grow over time, as awareness increases and the Supercharger network and service center network continue to expand.

Let's zoom out for context:

• 61% share is still double what it used to be before the Model 3 was introduced
• Competitors emerged from the chip shortage in 2023 and thus were much less supply constrained than during the pandemic. The entire automotive industry had a glut of supply, prices dropped across the industry, and dealership inventories grew.
• 2017 saw a similarly large drop in CA BEV market share when S&X sales peaked and 3 was still in the beginning of Production Hell.
• California is the leading state in the USA for selling compliance EVs at a loss, because California is a huge market with stringent regulatory requirements and it is the most lucrative automotive market in the nation. Tesla is selling into a tilted playing field because customers are subsidizing their losses with earnings from ICE and hybrid sales, but this situation won't last forever.
• 2023 was another weak year of growth for the overall automotive market in California. Overall LDV sales were 10% lower than in the peak years of 2015 through 2018.

View attachment 1034711


View attachment 1034713

Source: California New Car Dealers Association & Experian

California has a overall liberal and leftist population supermajority, but it's a big state with almost 40 million people living it it and it is politically, geographically, culturally, ethnically and economically diverse. The populous coastal counties that comprise the major urban areas are heavily left-leaning, whereas the rural counties are heavily right-leaning, and many other counties are somewhere in between.

In the leftist urban and coastal counties, Tesla did have a decline in their BEV market share from its peak in 2020. In 2023 alone, it declined from 74% to 61%. However, this decline was right in line with the overall trend for California in which Tesla's market share dropped from 73% to 61%. Also, Tesla still showed growth in these left-leaning counties. The only exception was San Mateo county just south of San Francisco and just north of Silicon Valley. San Mateo for some reason had sales collapse by 38% in 2023. I don't have any idea why this happened, but San Mateo is a fairly small market and it was heavily saturated with Teslas until 2022. Despite that lone outlier, overall in the most left-wing counties in California, Tesla actually grew their sales volume by 8.1%, which was almost exactly equal to the Tesla's statewide sales growth of 8.2%.

Even with wide variation in regional demographics, culture and politics, Tesla overall increased sales volume in California pretty evenly throughout the state. Tesla grew the same in woke, socialist metropolises, in liberal suburbs, and in MAGA Trumpland (which does exist in California). Tesla even grew sales by 5% in San Francisco county, which is the bluest county in the state, is the epicenter of the Twitter/X and OpenAI controversy, and has been directly accused by Elon of propagating a radical "woke mind virus" that will destroy civilization as we know it.

View attachment 1034803

Spoiler: Tesla sales for most populous counties

County	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	% Change YoY
Los Angeles	16809	20902	35844	61573	58374	-5%
Orange	9503	11628	18122	26945	31444	17%
Santa Clara	10122	8963	13072	19908	24593	24%
San Diego	5585	7352	11979	16512	19882	20%
Alameda	5714	5418	8418	12444	15039	21%
Riverside	2031	2917	6111	8961	10635	19%
San Bernardino	1694	2241	4604	7495	9271	24%
Contra Costa	2882	3376	5427	7700	8550	11%
Sacramento	1351	1783	3280	5770	7316	27%
San Mateo	3412	3458	5085	11230	6937	-38%
San Francisco	1933	2801	3806	4914	5171	5%
Ventura	1509	1783	3081	4507	4759	6%
San Joaquin	670	846	1819	3062	4610	51%

Unfortunately, Tesla grew sales in California with the help of large price reductions. However, Tesla also reduced prices by the same amount all across the US and similar amounts in all major EV markets around the world. Also, competitors cut prices on their EVs shortly after Tesla did, and inventory has been piling up at their dealerships. It's important to note that Tesla's online ordering and transparent pricing means that we know they were selling vehicles at the same prices throughout California.

All of this evidence casts major doubt on the belief that Elon's political activism has been the primary cause of growth slowdown and price reductions. It is questionable whether it even is a net factor at all. There has been no observed correlation between the political bias of a local market and Tesla's BEV market share. It appears that the broader tough market conditions have affected the whole EV market in the state and worldwide, with BYD the only other player looking decent in 2023. That being said, a lack of correlation doesn't necessarily mean there was no effect. The urban and coastal areas in California have many differences from the rural areas, so maybe Elon's antics were hurting demand in the metro areas but some other factors were tailwinds in these same areas. Still, the simpler and more likely explanation is that the politics did not have a majorly negative effect. Either way, end result is the same and the data shows no cause for alarm.

First Principle analysis! Brilliant. Thank you!

 

[Discoducky]

Instaclassic 9 years ago

The whole AP team was in the front row

 

[ls7corvete]

There is a new Tesla sales/service/delivery center in our area in southern California

New Teslas are being stored nearby at an unused dealership lot. It is packed full, with about 200 new Teslas, and trucks are dropping off more at least daily. The last truck dropped off updated 3s. I do a drive by at least every other day, and it keeps getting more full.
New Teslas are also being stored at a nearby vacant restaurant parking lot with no fencing.

I thought that with the $7,500 point of sale Federal tax credit, Model Ys would be flying off the shelf.

I believe that high interest rates are really slowing the market. Low credit scores are paying at least 10%, and even high credit scores are at least 7.5%
Also auto insurance rates are very high, and hearing of some insurance companies not providing auto insurance at all any more in California, although I thought that only applied to housing.

Somewhat concerning. But a good data point. Another n=1; I Bought last quarter and having in-stock available made pressing buy way easier. IMHO; some in stock can be a long tern boost to sales. Should also help with the end of quarry rush.

Also, need to correlate these numbers with increases in sales.

 

[Musskiah]

The whole AP team was in the front row

Instajealous
V6.2 days

 

[Musskiah]

I have yet to see a good reason why “filling the gap” is even a thing

I'm pro "filling the gap" for the record

 

[ABCTG]

Also stopped by the Upland Tesla sales/service/delivery center in our area in southern California last Saturday. I talked to the store manager there, who said they had ten deliveries per hour, including three Cybertrucks that day.

 

[Musskiah]

"How do you pronounce your name...?
We've got Twitter.com..."

 

[loquitur]

Is she on the Disney board?

I go to Disney World quite often. If you go inside the Test Track attraction (sponsored by Chevrolet), you see a showroom for Chevy vehicles. They used to always have a Bolt on display. I was there a few weeks ago and there was not one single EV at all. Take from that what you will.

Meanwhile, at California's Disneyland in Anaheim, where we're woke as hell and we're not gonna take it anymore,
some great EV news from Tomorrowland:

Column: Disneyland is ditching gas cars at Autopia. It's a great first step for Tomorrowland — Los Angeles Times

The classic ride is moving toward electric vehicles. But at its parks and in its movies, Disney can do more to champion climate solutions.

apple.news

 

[30seconds]

In any case I just want more info. This quarter everyone’s estimates were off by a huge margin. This indicates that nobody outside the company has a good understanding of what happened in Q1. I see no good reason to assume why the same people would have a better understanding today than they did yesterday just because the headline numbers were released.

I think this is a very important point. If this was a clear one time impact of something - supply chain disruption for example -the Tesla team would be on calls with the stock analysts to discuss this which should bring down estimates but with a caveat.

Instead we have big misses (which also make the analysts look bad) with no clear message on the rest of the year.

Either Tesla doesn’t know why, doesn’t want to communicate why or has decided to blow off communications with the analyst community.

In any case it isn’t a very good look for large investors with hundreds of millions in Tesla stock to worry about.

 

[Quesder]

Meanwhile, at California's Disneyland in Anaheim, where we're woke as hell and we're not gonna take it anymore,
some great EV news from Tomorrowland:

Column: Disneyland is ditching gas cars at Autopia. It's a great first step for Tomorrowland — Los Angeles Times

The classic ride is moving toward electric vehicles. But at its parks and in its movies, Disney can do more to champion climate solutions.

apple.news

I remember when I was 10 year old in Disneyland in 1986 (man, the ticket was only $20), my friend and I were eager to drive the Autopia gas car. We ended up couldn't because we ran out of time, and that left a bad memory for my Disneyland trip. The reason is that, driving a real ICE car, not an electric toy car, was a dream for young boys.

Then starting from 2006, I had to drive my Corolla daily, and small accidents happened here and there, and I started to hate driving and the smell of gasoline. Then I started to dream that someone who is 100% trustworthy to drive for me.

Now that looks coming close, except we don't know whether that will sustain TSLA price soon enough, or we will see $100 first.

Also, my Y had some big issue yesterday, the front motor since to be disfunction for a while when my wife was on her way to supermarket. It came back about 15 min later, but my wife is freaked out and swear never to buy Tesla again.
I schedule a service but it is as late as April 12 because the service center at 48370 Kato Rd, Fremont is too busy.

 

[Thekiwi]

Price drop on 3 & Y in Australia and New Zealand.

After removing 15% sales tax, price in New Zealand including delivery and drive away costs is as follows in equivalent US dollars:

Model 3 RWD: ~$34.5k USD
Model Y RWD: ~$35.5k USD

 

[CitizenKane]

All isn't gloom and doom, Volvo Cars had a great March and a good Q1, increasing total sales with 12% compared to Q1 2023 Volvo Cars achieves monthly sales record in March The sales increase of BEV in Europe looks especially impressive.

 

[heltok]

Regarding FSD Ashoks latest statement about solving the trolley problem , refers to conflicting risks when making decisions while driving

In the context of Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the "trolley problem" could refer to a difficult decision that an autonomous vehicle's AI system might face. For example, in a situation where an accident is unavoidable, the AI system might have to choose between two potential outcomes: one where it swerves to avoid hitting a group of pedestrians but potentially causes harm to the vehicle's occupants, or one where it maintains its course to protect its occupants but potentially harms the pedestrians. This dilemma is similar to the trolley problem, as it involves making a difficult ethical decision with potentially life-or-death consequences.

Interesting dilemma to solve , one that a computer can make quicker than a human most likely

Back when I developed self driving cars, our solution was to crash into the humans furthest distance away no matter the number of them, if they were old/young, criminals/priests etc.

But I guess the Tesla solution to the problem is to do whatever humans do. And if regulators have a different idea they will have to let Tesla know and Tesla can filter to only include humans who do that in their dataset.

If you want to see what you would do and compare your decisions to 8M other humans here is a quick test:

https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

 

[CitizenKane]

Back when I developed self driving cars, our solution was to crash into the humans furthest distance away no matter the number of them, if they were old/young, criminals/priests etc.

But I guess the Tesla solution to the problem is to do whatever humans do. And if regulators have a different idea they will have to let Tesla know and Tesla can filter to only include humans who do that in their dataset.

If you want to see what you would do and compare your decisions to 8M other humans here is a quick test:

https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

I liked that, very interesting to see how differently people see moral dilemmas, provided that those who answer it are honest. I killed 66 people.

 

[replicant]

All isn't gloom and doom, Volvo Cars had a great March and a good Q1, increasing total sales with 12% compared to Q1 2023 Volvo Cars achieves monthly sales record in March The sales increase of BEV in Europe looks especially impressive.

Indeed

• +27% YoY for BEV global sales
• +48% YoY for BEV in Europe

Are these sales to dealers or to customers?

 

[Atomsla]

I liked that, very interesting to see how differently people see moral dilemmas, provided that those who answer it are honest. I killed 66 people.

I quit answering at the rich man offering you a 500k bribe because I wanted to have more information. Who are these people? Retroactively, I wanted to know a lot more about the people in the previous dilemma's as well. Must say I was surprised about the percentage of people choosing to let a bunch of people die to protect their life savings. Although again it would depend on who. Any villains involved, or people who hang the toilet roll facing to the wall?
I know the point is to just answer without considering any further information, but I just cannot.