Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

I wonder why inside sources ( I assume) would cooperate with Reuters
And feed them negative stuff. Why would they undermine the company?

Are they short the stock.
Does Reuters pay them for info.
Or is this a pure fabrication .

 

[Todd Burch]

The media has been lying about Tesla for over a decade. Still, Wall Street has not learned.

Now, we are in a world of generative AI, where even video can be fabricated to look indistinguishable from the real thing.

Wall Street is going to need to somehow get off its ass and not take every rumor as gospel, reacting like 5-year-olds to every piece of garbage that spews from the media’s mouth.

 

[heltok]

Imo Elon wanted unboxed car to be 100% robotaxi because he thinks it's best to go allin on robotaxi. He likes to bet the house because by doing that the company has a higher chance of succeeding at doing the task. Franz et al were unsure if robotaxi software would be ready. Franz convinced Elon to do both on same platform. They planned on making unboxed in Mexico first. Then they realized that it's better do do unboxed first in Texas as the engineers prefers that. Then V12->V12.3.3+ showed great improvement making Elon and the engineers more confident in Robotaxi software being ready in time. So now the order has gone out to reprioritize resources from 25k car to Robotaxi. Resources here is basically everything Tesla has got ie manpower, compute, buildings, construction team, cash etc. Reprioritize means that in their software that decides what to do which is an optimization tool they upped the weight of robotaxi. They are still doing 25k car, just that engineers etc will spend a higher percent hours etc on robotaxi than they would have done without the repriortization. Lets say some engineers spend their days like
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 20% robotaxi, 20% 25k car.
now it's more like:
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 30% robotaxi, 10% 25k car.

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm not "quitting" anything and my post had little to do with whatever's currently in the news. I simply don't agree with the direction Elon is going with his ventures and haven't for a few years now. He's been claiming full FSD "that can drive across the country without intervention" for over 8 years now. I'm sure one day he'll be correct, but I'm also fortunate enough to have the means to know what it's time to not be greedy and be happy with what I've gotten from this company.

Tesla in the long run will be fine, but I've gotten to a point where a large part of my net worth being tied to a single man with bizarre mood swings is too much for me. I don't expect many superfans on this forum to agree of course.

Interesting. Folks who invested early enough, already got their 10 bagger, but had to risk bankruptcy. Folks who are coming to the party late, getting in now, don't have to worry about Tesla going bankrupt, but they have to deal with "a single man with bizarre mood swings" as they HODL for their 10 bagger (maybe less). I wonder which was/is higher risk? Clearly you think the bankruptcy risk was acceptable, but not the single man's personality. Interesting.

 

[elasalle]

Imo Elon wanted unboxed car to be 100% robotaxi because he thinks it's best to go allin on robotaxi. He likes to bet the house because by doing that the company has a higher chance of succeeding at doing the task. Franz et al were unsure if robotaxi software would be ready. Franz convinced Elon to do both on same platform. They planned on making unboxed in Mexico first. Then they realized that it's better do do unboxed first in Texas as the engineers prefers that. Then V12->V12.3.3+ showed great improvement making Elon and the engineers more confident in Robotaxi software being ready in time. So now the order has gone out to reprioritize resources from 25k car to Robotaxi. Resources here is basically everything Tesla has got ie manpower, compute, buildings, construction team, cash etc. Reprioritize means that in their software that decides what to do which is an optimization tool they upped the weight of robotaxi. They are still doing 25k car, just that engineers etc will spend a higher percent hours etc on robotaxi than they would have done without the repriortization. Lets say some engineers spend their days like
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 20% robotaxi, 20% 25k car.
now it's more like:
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 30% robotaxi, 10% 25k car.

based on your posts, you seem to be very knowledgeable in this area.

So what is the difference b/w robotaxi and 25K car in terms of FSD stack?
if lidar etc for robotaxi, then that would mean FSD will not be full Self driving right? Else both will be the same?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I wonder why inside sources ( I assume) would cooperate with Reuters
And feed them negative stuff. Why would they undermine the company?

Are they short the stock.
Does Reuters pay them for info.
Or is this a pure fabrication .

You forgot one: Out side sources with deep pockets

 

[NicoV]

Microsoft has built it’s own AI accellerator, and in the process also abstracts away the hardware dependencies on NVidia Cuda, or AMD’s Rocm: Azure Maia for the era of AI: From silicon to software to systems | Microsoft Azure Blog
It’s not far fetched to think Dojo could fit in here, or have a similar usage pattern.
Anyway, there are more parties that want some of NVidia’s market share and associated fat margins.

 

[wipster]

Since nobody asked, my thoughts on Tesla cancelling the $25K Gen3 vehicle...

Norfolk and Waypal

 

[Singuy]

The reason people were against it was not because of the progress of FSD, but because they think Tesla needed a car for the masses to sell in large numbers. For a long period of time, that cannot be a RT, even if/when FSD is solved. There are many places, including the US that simply won't allow it.

Even if FSD is solved, investors and consumers will still want a low-cost car to sell en masse and the RT is an added benefit.

Just like how investors and consumers would like to buy back a leased car but cannot therefore driving down such a low lease% all for the sake of "these are robotaxies".

So yes, the demand for a 25k car you can sleep in and make money off it is infinite...that doesn't mean Musk will allow it to happen just like the anti-leasing because robotaxi hill he would die on.

 

[Curt Renz]

Big option writers giddily guiding TSLA toward a $165 Friday close.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Big option writers giddily guiding TSLA toward a $165 Friday close.

Shocking, isn't it:

 

[insaneoctane]

...I would reopen a position if FSD or Teslabot gets close. ...For FSD, something like 50k+ miles between interventions and no odd behaviors under diverse driving conditions would be getting close.

Seems like the train will have long left the station by this time. Nevertheless, I bid you good luck!

 

[hobbes]

A robotaxi can produce Tesla far, far more revenue than a next gen low cost vehicle private sale. The only real question has been how feasible it is to have a working robotaxi (and network) and the timetable. Without working FSD, Tesla should certainly support low cost gen 3 to the public. If the latest, unreleased builds of FSD has shown an incredible trajectory of progress, this could certainly tip the scales towards robotaxi. The progress we've seen with 12.3 makes it feasible to me that alpha builds might still be showing significant progress to give high confidence that the FSD solution is inevitable and soon. I'm personally disappointed by the rumor that Tesla is scrapping or delaying the public low cost vehicle to concentrate on robotaxi, as I'd rather them pursue both....but I understand the possibility. Plus Reuters (source) isn't always accurate anymore.

Keep in mind FSD is only US for now, they’d be missing rest of the world sales with robotaxi only.

 

[cab]

Imo Elon wanted unboxed car to be 100% robotaxi because he thinks it's best to go allin on robotaxi. He likes to bet the house because by doing that the company has a higher chance of succeeding at doing the task. Franz et al were unsure if robotaxi software would be ready. Franz convinced Elon to do both on same platform. They planned on making unboxed in Mexico first. Then they realized that it's better do do unboxed first in Texas as the engineers prefers that. Then V12->V12.3.3+ showed great improvement making Elon and the engineers more confident in Robotaxi software being ready in time. So now the order has gone out to reprioritize resources from 25k car to Robotaxi. Resources here is basically everything Tesla has got ie manpower, compute, buildings, construction team, cash etc. Reprioritize means that in their software that decides what to do which is an optimization tool they upped the weight of robotaxi. They are still doing 25k car, just that engineers etc will spend a higher percent hours etc on robotaxi than they would have done without the repriortization. Lets say some engineers spend their days like
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 20% robotaxi, 20% 25k car.
now it's more like:
10% validation, 10% improve old features, 10% new features, 10% model Y/3/S/X, 20% cybertruck, 30% robotaxi, 10% 25k car.

I tend to agree it will likely be some version of this. I think the general mainstream assumption was that the regular $25K car would be prioritized and deployed followed by the Robotaxi at some point in the future. Indeed, the robotaxi got virtually no press on the last earnings call whereas the $25K car clearly did (with dates, etc. discussed). Now, it "appears" SOMETHING has changed. This could be the two are being worked in parallel and will arrive almost simultaneously or the taxi shortly after the $25K car OR the taxi might actually take precedence and launch first. They would have to be uber (no pun intended) confident to shelve the $25K car entirely and bet the farm on the robotaxi at this point. One thing is for sure...we definitely have the #1 question for the earnings call!

 

[wtlloyd]

The numbers don't add up for RT and no Model 2. That's a huge initial investment of capital that remains tied up while growing the network with more vehicles, providing garaging/charging/service, location depots and service area expansion. To be effective, there must be a saturation of RT such that when you want one, it will come. The payback is too slow to retrieve the initial investment, and at the current moment there are signs that retail vehicle sales are at a plateau (Hey! no hitting!).
To open other markets for retail requires investment, but you just spent the bulk of your capital getting RT off the ground. It's not Frybread, you can't get 2 for 1 (esoteric movie reference).
I just can't believe Tesla have the resources to plow into RT in multiple urban locations, without stranding other products that (hopefully) are currently in development. When you sell a retail vehicle, it is an immediate return of cost and profit to the company. That industry leading short cycle has fueled Tesla's growth.
Going full RT at the expense of all else on the vehicle side of the company would strangle cash flow for years.
I just can't believe Tesla haven't considered the financial hit, they have been repeatedly brilliant with their financial planning up to this point.

 

[Zero CO2]

How many times does this one need to be debunked?

RTs can be put on the road today in over a dozen US states, serving nearly half the US population, with no special "regulatory approval" whatsoever.

You get well north of half the population by adding CA, which has clear regulations in place that are pretty easy to follow (see Waymo as an example).

In most of the remaining US states there are no regulators to review anything, because those states simply haven't bothered passing any laws either way on the topic-- they'll do so, and quickly, once generalized RTs actually exist, and they'll likely be similar to most of the existing states that have already done so (in fact among those states most of the content of their laws are near identical to each other)

The idea it'll be "years to prove it's safe to regulators before they're allowed on the road' is simply not true.


Now Europe is a whole other story-- even the L2 beta can't be approved there (nor is the new "supervised" label on the same product able to be approved there).... But Europe already has pretty solid public transit so RTs aren't going to be as huge a market as the US anyway (and the US would come first as the beta did either way)

How many times does this one need to be debunked?

 

[Quesder]

Big option writers giddily guiding TSLA toward a $165 Friday close.

This is very shocking that, the Volume of options at $165 is way way way more than yesterday open interest
I bet good option seller earned tons of money on both sides today.

 

[Zero CO2]

He also said 1m robotaxis on the road in 2020, so...you may want to up your sodium intake on the "Elon says" stuff.

there are 5 million on the road today ... the software just needs a few more tweaks

 

[MP3Mike]

Here's a line from the Reuters article claiming that plans have been scrapped for a Model 2.

"Two sources said they learned of Tesla's decision to scrap the Model 2 in a meeting attended by scores of employees, with one of them saying the gathering happened in late February."

Late February? Scores of employees? It would be amazing that such a decision would not have been leaked before today. In any event, plans could have changed since then.

Hasn't Tesla/Elon said that there is no such thing as the "Model 2". (That the next gen vehicle will not be called the "Model 2".) So, I guess you could say "Model 2" has been scrapped.

 

[Singuy]

The numbers don't add up for RT and no Model 2. That's a huge initial investment of capital that remains tied up while growing the network with more vehicles, providing garaging/charging/service, location depots and service area expansion. To be effective, there must be a saturation of RT such that when you want one, it will come. The payback is too slow to retrieve the initial investment, and at the current moment there are signs that retail vehicle sales are at a plateau (Hey! no hitting!).
To open other markets for retail requires investment, but you just spent the bulk of your capital getting RT off the ground. It's not Frybread, you can't get 2 for 1 (esoteric movie reference).
I just can't believe Tesla have the resources to plow into RT in multiple urban locations, without stranding other products that (hopefully) are currently in development. When you sell a retail vehicle, it is an immediate return of cost and profit to the company. That industry leading short cycle has fueled Tesla's growth.
Going full RT at the expense of all else on the vehicle side of the company would strangle cash flow for years.
I just can't believe Tesla haven't considered the financial hit, they have been repeatedly brilliant with their financial planning up to this point.

We are only clear that Tesla or Elon really wants to make the robotaxi and prioritizes it over a car with a steering wheel. He honestly think it's a safety issue and it would unlock trillion dollars worth of wealth. We don't know how these robotaxies would be rolled out but could be a combination of internal fleet+ sellable for companies/individuals who want to get into the business. It may also have a consumer version without a wheel. Per Elon Musk: "Almost all input is error". He wants to take humans out of the equation of driving ASAP.