I enjoy being right. That's why I do investing instead of political debates, because your bank account proves whether you're right or wrong. And I've been VERY right compared to everyone here over the last year. I'm here because I've been pointing the delusions on this site since everyone aggressively slammed Wall Street and Gary when they doubted the 20 million number, and we had really moronic predictions from people like The Accountant and Gigapress who take best case scenario assumptions as baseline truths in their models. And people here who were ignoring the signs of the 4680 battery slowdown when even Limiting Factor started turning on it after the first tear downs. Warning against people who took that clown James Duoma seriously about all his FSD praise like 3 years ago (oh look we're 3 years in the future and no robotaxi). Also saying things like how Tesla needs to be end-to-end to have any shot at FSD because hard coding any logic wouldn't work. And people were like "oh you think you know more than Elon?!?!?!" Guess I did. And it's all the effing negativity and inability to have an objective perspective from people like
@Krugerrand that have totally poisoned this place. And thus, you're enduring this fall. Except uplike two years ago, it's actually justified this time because Tesla sales are down YoY while BYD is pumping out the car Tesla should've pumped out two years ago.
So now I'm simply here to say "told you so" and to keep planting more flags when I return in the future when my predictions are proven right again.
Now you can be salty at me or heed my words:
Tesla probably gets FSD working in suberban areas at the worst case scenario (they will probably disguise the language by saying they're production constrained and choosing where to saturate a market, but in reality it's because FSD will only work on easy areas). Does that move the stock? Maybe, IDK.
IF FSD is solved in the next decade, probably Tesla who does it first (Waymo can technically be deployed in most major cities but i don't see the path to high valuation with how costly their implementation is).
Tesla gets Optimus working before robotaxis, and depending on how easy it is to train it to do new tasks Tesla makes a bajillion dollars (because Figure AI is a joke if you look at the CEO's background/words on Twitter, Figure's origin, and the FOMO VC money that went into there... and it's wild how stupid/replaceable many jobs are).
Tesla Energy with corporate installations becomes bigger than auto by 2030 (give or take 3 years). Power walls suck and will never compete in retail, but the software reliability for corporate/utility application justifies the "Tesla premium" and that alone makes Tesla a huge huge market. Hedging this statement based on development of zinc, sodium, and other batteries and where Tesla stands on that.
Where you put your money is up to you. Rates can get cut next year with Republican congress and Tesla's valuation runs regardless of fundamentals. I probably think this stock is dead for the next 1-2 years though. I'm riding out the current crypto wave and probably rotating back into Tesla when next bear market happens (funny, so many people shitting on me for the innovative tech in crypto that they don't understand and call a ponzi scheme when Tesla is now in the same boat of cutting edge tech most laugh at them for vs. safe predictable cash flow of unit volume sales). Still have several thousands shares in my taxable accounts, so I'm still in unfortunately. About to put in $50k into xAI as I'm getting class A preferred share access. But enjoy downvoting me and losing money y'all, vs. trying to have objective discussions.