Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GOVA]

@Xepa777, Do yourself a favor and turn on a basketball game to watch this weekend instead of posting incessantly to try and scare TSLA investors. While you're at it, watch a few youtube videos of Falcon 9 boosters landing on barges. Amazing things have happened and are happening at Elon Musk ventures. For good measure, watch an X.com video of the quadriplegic who is now playing online chess after his neuralink implants. It's really tiresome having you rain on our parade as you do. An occasional shower isn't bad, but you've long reached the constant drizzle stage.

Appreciate your post @Papafox , but don't lower yourself to this level. Your daily market summaries and other great posts have served this community immensely.

This is already a lost cause.

 

[Usain]

I enjoy being right. That's why I do investing instead of political debates, because your bank account proves whether you're right or wrong.

We all enjoy being right. But I scanned back at some of your posts.

I only found two stock picks. You were downright giddy about Rocket Lab and AMBL (now ABAT) back in March of 2021.

Rocket Lab then: $12
Rocket Lab now: $3.80

AMBL then: $28
AMBL now: $1.76

 

[y_naught]

In regards to FSD. I just got a text from Tesla advertising that I could get 1 month of FSD if I buy a Tesla. Am I the only one here that doesn’t see any value in that? I’m somewhat of a tech nerd (relative to everyone else in my bubble) and while I think the current version of FSD is pretty cool, I still see very little value in it (except for roadtrips on the highway). I get the impression that Tesla expects a significant FSD adoption rate with the current month trial but I am highly skeptical of that.

I am even more skeptical of Robotaxis being a thing, especially anytime soon. While FSD works great, it still isn’t even close to handling a lot of situations. Am I missing something?

In addition, I know it’s a big world but even if robotaxis were solved tomorrow, I would still want to own my car, even if RT were free. How could I rely on one to commute to work, grocery shop, haul stuff, bring kids to practice, out of town vacations or sports tournaments, etc?

I read ARK thesis on this and it just seems like pie in the sky type of analysis. I hope I am wrong, with Tesla going all in on RT, this is the first time I am questioning my investments.

I like to drive. In 1982 I wrote a short story about autonomous driving killing free will and joy of driving called “Safe at any speed” for a creative writing class. But, as a long time tech geek, I have to say that FSD is both amazing in what it does from a technical standpoint and also very relaxing from a “passenger” standpoint. V11 was not that relaxing experience, but 12.3.3 is. It adds pleasure (removes stress) from my drives.

 

[dhrivnak]

Today was the last day with “my” Model 3 of three weeks that turned into a month

You guys won’t believe how many kWh I used, maybe we do live in a simulation after all

Amazing experience and hope to own one one day, or a Model Y with a custom portal knuckle and air suspension that I started to sketch out and do some napkin math, easily +4” to +6” ground clearance when needed while keeping the factory ride height and handling when on pavement, add some A/T tires and it would be the ultimate stealth off roader

I have one complain, please don’t exile me for it, I miss the lack of audible feedback. I’m not saying I miss the ICE sound, I don’t, even been building and riding small electric vehicles for the past 10 or so years as a hobby and professionally, and all of them have a bit of speed and power dependent noise. The three has, but it’s so quiet that you can barely hear in most situations

Cybertruck videos shows that Tesla did put an effort into that for it, which makes sense with the target demographics

The rest top notch, no comments (maybe the wireless charger not having any cooling and overheating my phone and barely charging it, but I think it’s more of a phone problem than the car)

Already rented for 2 more weeks a month from now for a longer trip


View attachment 1036277

Curious how often do you sit on your patio with your favorite beverage and your neighbor comes out to mow his grass and you say ah the soothing sound of a gas engine?

 

[Musskiah]

I enjoy being right. That's why I do investing instead of political debates, because your bank account proves whether you're right or wrong. And I've been VERY right compared to everyone here over the last year. I'm here because I've been pointing the delusions on this site since everyone aggressively slammed Wall Street and Gary when they doubted the 20 million number, and we had really moronic predictions from people like The Accountant and Gigapress who take best case scenario assumptions as baseline truths in their models. And people here who were ignoring the signs of the 4680 battery slowdown when even Limiting Factor started turning on it after the first tear downs. Warning against people who took that clown James Duoma seriously about all his FSD praise like 3 years ago (oh look we're 3 years in the future and no robotaxi). Also saying things like how Tesla needs to be end-to-end to have any shot at FSD because hard coding any logic wouldn't work. And people were like "oh you think you know more than Elon?!?!?!" Guess I did. And it's all the effing negativity and inability to have an objective perspective from people like @Krugerrand that have totally poisoned this place. And thus, you're enduring this fall. Except uplike two years ago, it's actually justified this time because Tesla sales are down YoY while BYD is pumping out the car Tesla should've pumped out two years ago.


So now I'm simply here to say "told you so" and to keep planting more flags when I return in the future when my predictions are proven right again.

Now you can be salty at me or heed my words:

Tesla probably gets FSD working in suberban areas at the worst case scenario (they will probably disguise the language by saying they're production constrained and choosing where to saturate a market, but in reality it's because FSD will only work on easy areas). Does that move the stock? Maybe, IDK.

IF FSD is solved in the next decade, probably Tesla who does it first (Waymo can technically be deployed in most major cities but i don't see the path to high valuation with how costly their implementation is).

Tesla gets Optimus working before robotaxis, and depending on how easy it is to train it to do new tasks Tesla makes a bajillion dollars (because Figure AI is a joke if you look at the CEO's background/words on Twitter, Figure's origin, and the FOMO VC money that went into there... and it's wild how stupid/replaceable many jobs are).

Tesla Energy with corporate installations becomes bigger than auto by 2030 (give or take 3 years). Power walls suck and will never compete in retail, but the software reliability for corporate/utility application justifies the "Tesla premium" and that alone makes Tesla a huge huge market. Hedging this statement based on development of zinc, sodium, and other batteries and where Tesla stands on that.

Where you put your money is up to you. Rates can get cut next year with Republican congress and Tesla's valuation runs regardless of fundamentals. I probably think this stock is dead for the next 1-2 years though. I'm riding out the current crypto wave and probably rotating back into Tesla when next bear market happens (funny, so many people shitting on me for the innovative tech in crypto that they don't understand and call a ponzi scheme when Tesla is now in the same boat of cutting edge tech most laugh at them for vs. safe predictable cash flow of unit volume sales). Still have several thousands shares in my taxable accounts, so I'm still in unfortunately. About to put in $50k into xAI as I'm getting class A preferred share access. But enjoy downvoting me and losing money y'all, vs. trying to have objective discussions.

I'm not sure what objective discussion your ego is trying to have with itself, but you seem to be enjoying yourself, so I won't stop you.

 

[2daMoon]

No, no one uses those metrics. NHTSA is not going to accept accident rates when supervised as meaning anything, for the simple example I gave you: accident rate can stay flat while the underlying technology improves massively.

Sure you can brag about it all you want, but it’s not telling you about the true progress. I’ve talked to many ML engineers and data scientists and no one would use that metric and especially would it be in a ML cost function.

Whereas critical disengagements absolutely is used.

I can only surmise people get obsessed with the supervised accident rate as a way to push that these systems should be required in most cars for safety (legitimate) or to pump the stock.

How, exactly, will you measure disengagements when there is no human in the car, nor remotely controlling it?

Who will be making the "critical" judgement to "disengage" and how will this be accomplished?

The agencies making any recommendations for standards on autonomous vehicles will use whatever data they can. If they didn't they would be remiss for not considering it. The data Tesla is gathering will be mountainous, factual, and most appropriate for determining how safe FSD is compared to a car operated by one of those sketchy people thingies.

Data that can be influenced by a human in regard to statistics regarding a driverless vehicle will hold less weight than will data derived from the actual operation of a driverless car.

This seems like a fairly straightforward application of logic.

Please, show me the long list of "no ones" you have amassed, and examples of the actual metrics they are currently using to define these sort of safety performance parameters for autonomous vehicles.

You have presented an ill-founded opinion and are now attempting to use gross generalizations that offer nothing to actually support it.

Edit: For a less generalized presentation of data on FSD, watch this:

 

[Mengy]

I enjoy being right.

(followed by a lot of pompous posturing)

Thank you for the hearty laugh!

 

[CreativeName]

They've allegedly been working on an autonomous snake charger for nearly a decade. Remember the coast to coast fully autonomous trip that was totally going to happen in 2017? Errr, 2018? Wait, was it 2019?

Then again, Elon says a lot of things

We get it, Tesla and Elon are terrible. Why are you here?

 

[Musskiah]

About to put in $50k into xAI as I'm getting class A preferred share access.

Why the sudden change of heart re: xAI?

 

[Musskiah]

SOURCE: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

"There’s 1.37 deaths per 100 million miles driven for human drivers"

So at RT reveal on 8/8 FSD will have driven 2B+ miles without a death, making it over 30 times safer than a human alone...and counting...

 

[EQC_]

SOURCE: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

"There’s 1.37 deaths per 100 million miles driven for human drivers"

So at RT reveal on 8/8 FSD will have driven 2B+ miles without a death, making it over 30 times safer than a human alone...and counting...

Knock on wood or something. Don't jinx it!

We all know that if a drunk guy with no seatbelt on drove a stolen car at 100 mph into the side of a Cybertruck, while that Cybertruck was on FSD but currently stopped and penned between other cars at a stop light, and the drunk flew out, over the Cybertruck and died when he hit a bus full of nuns and orphans, while the Cybertruck occupants were able to walk away, the first headlines and articles would proclaim:

"Tesla's controversial Cybertruck, using unfinished so-called Full Self Driving BETA software, involved in horrific fatal accident! Nuns and orphans terrified! Known awful man Musk and his scam company Tesla REFUSE to accept any blame!"

 

[KBF]

This is the first time we have an official confirmation that FSD is actually shadowing the driver. I am pretty confident it wasn't the case until very recently. Great stuff!
View attachment 1036245

Oh oh... I just got the free FSD this week, and I've apparently been training it to be very aggressive. Sorry everyone...

It is interesting that on the highway I can use the scroll wheel to set my FSD speed, but in town that's not available... But if I nudge my accelerator briefly the car responds and stays going faster (and sometimes accelerating significantly more than my nudge, well above the speed limit at times...). It doesn't seem to pay much attention to the offset I used in the settings tab.

It still wants to be conservative (in the 'aggressive' setting) for my local roundabouts, so I usually 'encourage' it through (it has been going 22 km/h, speed limit signs say 30).

So I wonder if my accelerator 'interventions' will help it learn to be more confident over time? I assume Tesla tracks these things and not just disengagement. I guess I'll see if my Y's behaviour changes over the next month...

 

[Xepa777]

These gems were great hopium when the company wasn’t reliant on them. It’s no longer funny with the model 2 delayed again for multiple years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1117096350301085697

Who was even on here in 2019? And if you’re still a sucker for this you have full on Stockholm syndrome for abuse.

 

[NicoV]

Which do you think it a larger group?

People who will skip stretching for a 3/Y and wait for the next-gen if it's announced as coming within a year.
or
People who will skip buying a non-Tesla 25k car and wait for the next-gen if it's announced as coming within a year.


Because based on who buys how many of what car, that second group seems at least an order of magnitude larger?

There is a third group: the group waiting for a reveal of then next gen car that then decides to buy something else (preferably from Tesla).

 

[Ellec]

These gems were great hopium when the company wasn’t reliant on them. It’s no longer funny with the model 2 delayed again for multiple years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1117096350301085697

Who was even on here in 2019? And if you’re still a sucker for this you have full on Stockholm syndrome for abuse.

Elon tends to be very optimistic on time lines, which I think is a strategy to push the company to innovate and work harder. 2025/26 will be the year of FSD, it doesn't matter if it was x years later than predicted.

It only has to be done once in the history of mankind, the company that does it first will always be ahead after that. If you don't understand the potential profits that are coming to Tesla for achieving this then it's best to stick to Index funds. It guarantees the company hundreds of billions in cash per year for the next century at least.

Each year there will be more Teslas with FSD on the road which means more data, add to this more compute power being installed, chip improvements etc. You would have to be an idiot or have some character issue (Hate/Pride/Ego etc) blind you to this opportunity.

 

[WolfHero]

Vacationing in Taiwan, at a Toyota dealer where it used to have a bz4x demo car and signage on glass wall are no where to be seen anymore. The only leftover hint is what's on the wall. However, now in front of this wall there is a poster gaslighting shoppers.

My rough translation:

There can't be any delay to accomplish carbon neutral.
Toyota is together with you on the road to carbon neutral.
World Trend - Carbon neutral
Carbon neutral is to reduce total organization's total carbon footprint and green house gas emission by using low carbon energy source or tree planting. In term of a car, carbon footprint need to consider entire car's life cycle, including mining of raw material to recycling. To reduce carbon footprint of entire life cycle, we need to increase renewable energy production and increase development of different kinds of electrified car models.
Toyota proactively developing various kinds of electrified cars:
Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, Battery Electric Vehicle, Fuel Cell Electric Vehice

Pure EV does not = zero carbon
Aforementioned, we need to consider entire carbon emussion of car's entire life cycle. Even though battery electric vehicle does not produce any carbon during operation, but recharge need will impact how much carbon is produced. Currently 80.2% of energy produced in TAiwan is sourced from high carbon emission source of either coal or natural gas. This means that using battery electric vehicles will actually increase carbon footprint so it is not the best choice to reduce carbon.
Taiwan's power source in 2020:
80.2% Coal/Natural Gas
12.7% Nuclear
5.8% Renewable
1.3% Other

Currently the most realistic kind of car to achieve carbon neural - HEV (hybrid EV)
Based on current researh from government environmental bureau, HEV has the lowest lifetime carbon footprint based on current Twaiwan's energy production source. So we recommend HEV models that does not have issues such as range anxiety and superior milage per liter of gas as most realistic choice for vehicles that reduces carbon footprint.

Bar graph of total carbon production in life cycle, from left to right BEV/HEV/ICE, data source 2016 Taiwan's envionmental bureau study.
Blue = car production
Green = energy source
Yellow = during operation (driving)

 

[Xepa777]

Elon tends to be very optimistic on time lines, which I think is a strategy to push the company to innovate and work harder. 2025/26 will be the year of FSD, it doesn't matter if it was x years later than predicted.

It only has to be done once in the history of mankind, the company that does it first will always be ahead after that. If you don't understand the potential profits that are coming to Tesla for achieving this then it's best to stick to Index funds. It guarantees the company hundreds of billions in cash per year for the next century at least.

Each year there will be more Teslas with FSD on the road which means more data, add to this more compute power being installed, chip improvements etc. You would have to be an idiot or have some character issue (Hate/Pride/Ego etc) blind you to this opportunity.

“Each year there will be more Teslas with FSD on the road which means more data, add to this more compute power being installed, chip improvements etc. ” Tesla 2017 YouTubers would like to have royalty payments from you word for word copying them

…or you could just go off the track record of the last 10 years. I bet you were eating it up at the model 3 unveil event when they showed a model 3 with a Deleted steering wheel for robotaxi and no way to open the glove box. “Oh my god it’s 2017 so wait but I’m 3 years 2020 is the year of the robotaxi.” Same friggen energy there buddy boy. We all watched those hyperchange videos with total FSD miles lmao.

I imagine in 3 years we might have optimistically 5-6 cities running robotaxis. Peak optimism. Doubt that materially moves our earnings especially with a bunch of operational cost to observe and mcontrol the fleet. “Oh just you wait 2030 is the year of robotaxi.” You can keep doing this same *sugar* over and over again.

One year ago I heard the word “occupancy network” here every week I swear. You don’t have a clue. You have misplaced belief. It’s basically religion.

No one is doubting the potential of robotaxi. Where the **** did you see me say that? I’m telling you that you’re blind and it’s not happening anytime soon. And if it does happen there’s a whole bunch of *sugar* that comes with it which I outlined in my previous posts which no one here has articulated a reasonable rebuttal (because everything I say is true) and Tesla might start to rocket from $50 to $500 rather than $300 to $1500.

 

[Ellec]

“Each year there will be more Teslas with FSD on the road which means more data, add to this more compute power being installed, chip improvements etc. ” Tesla 2017 YouTubers would like to have royalty payments from you word for word copying them

…or you could just go off the track record of the last 10 years. I bet you were eating it up at the model 3 unveil event when they showed a model 3 with a Deleted steering wheel for robotaxi and no way to open the glove box. “Oh my god it’s 2017 so wait but I’m 3 years 2020 is the year of the robotaxi.” Same friggen energy there buddy boy. We all watched those hyperchange videos with total FSD miles lmao.

I imagine in 3 years we might have optimistically 5-6 cities running robotaxis. Peak optimism. Doubt that materially moves our earnings especially with a bunch of operational cost to observe and mcontrol the fleet. “Oh just you wait 2030 is the year of robotaxi.” You can keep doing this same *sugar* over and over again.

One year ago I heard the word “occupancy network” here every week I swear. You don’t have a clue. You have misplaced belief. It’s basically religion.

No one is doubting the potential of robotaxi. Where the **** did you see me say that? I’m telling you that you’re blind and it’s not happening anytime soon. And if it does happen there’s a whole bunch of *sugar* that comes with it which I outlined in my previous posts which no one here has articulated a reasonable rebuttal (because everything I say is true) and Tesla might start to rocket from $50 to $500 rather than $300 to $1500.

We have different beliefs about the future, nothing wrong with that. We will see who's aligns with reality over the next few years.

 

[GhostSkater]

Curious how often do you sit on your patio with your favorite beverage and your neighbor comes out to mow his grass and you say ah the soothing sound of a gas engine?

This is what I wanted

Electric motors sound awesome when you don’t quiet them into oblivion

 

[cliff harris]

These gems were great hopium when the company wasn’t reliant on them. It’s no longer funny with the model 2 delayed again for multiple years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1117096350301085697

Who was even on here in 2019? And if you’re still a sucker for this you have full on Stockholm syndrome for abuse.

I've been here since 2015. Very happy, and amazed with what the company has achieved. Something that never changes, even since before the model S, is a long, sad line of people insisting Tesla will never achieve X, which is a goalpost so mobile its on wheels.
Its also sad to see how you accept a 'news' report from reuters (proven time and time and time again to be utter liars) despite the CEO publicly calling it out as nonsense. Do you work at reuters?