Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Whole heartedly agree with most of your points. Just want to add one thing that people may underestimate how long the traditional OEM's pipeline is. The fed actually keeps track of a statistics that might reflect, the auto inventory/sales ratio, while it's recovered some from the sharp drop in 2021, it's still way below pre-pandemic level. OEMs are still stuffing the dealers.

Auto Inventory/Sales Ratio

Graph and download economic data for Auto Inventory/Sales Ratio (AISRSA) from Jan 1993 to Feb 2024 about ratio, inventories, vehicles, new, sales, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

This is great data! I didn't know this existed.

Especially if we look at just inventory, not inventory/sales ratio, it is clear that there is substantially more production than sales lately in the US. However, I don't think "channel stuffing" is a good description, because inventory is bouncing back from almost zero, and it's still about 3-7x less than it used to be. That being said, the total amount of inventory buildup left would be at most a few weeks worth of sales.

Interestingly, I see that inventory was already plummeting in the years before 2020. I wonder why.

New vehicle sales are still about 15% less than pre-pandemic. Meanwhile, used vehicle sales post-2020 remain at an all-time high, and show massively greater seasonality for some reason.

Inventory/Sales

Inventory

Sales
Note that I zoomed in on 2005-present for this one

Used Car Sales

 

[Usain]

This is great data! I didn't know this existed.

Especially if we look at just inventory, not inventory/sales ratio, it is clear that there is substantially more production than sales lately in the US. However, I don't think "channel stuffing" is a good description, because inventory is bouncing back from almost zero, and it's still about 3-7x less than it used to be. That being said, the total amount of inventory buildup left would be at most a few weeks worth of sales.

Interestingly, I see that inventory was already plummeting in the years before 2020. I wonder why.

New vehicle sales are still about 15% less than pre-pandemic. Meanwhile, used vehicle sales post-2020 remain at an all-time high, and show massively greater seasonality for some reason.

Inventory/Sales
View attachment 1036871

Inventory
View attachment 1036873

Sales
Note that I zoomed in on 2005-present for this one
View attachment 1036874

Used Car Sales
View attachment 1036875

So Brandon from "Car questions answered" says that he knows dealers are not selling cars. He is a used car dealer and he follows the auction market.

He says that what is happening now is that the new car dealers are not sending cars to auction. That means they aren't getting trade-ins for new cars they are selling. Almost all cars traded in go to auction. Therefore, they aren't selling new cars.

Also, he is seeing an uptake of cars going to auction from used car dealers. This means the used dealers are not selling the cars they have on the lot so they have to send them to auction in order get cash to pay their floor plan.

I'm sure his observation isn't as accurate as the numbers above. But his observation is more current. He says this should not be happening now in the spring selling season when Americans are getting their tax refunds.

 

[dhanson865]

But he didn't say reduce weight for the application. He described removing friction driving brakes and going instead to a central single parking brake.

It's like you don't understand how a conversation works. Think of a party

Person A: I like food, this party has OK food.
Person B: I make food, I can make better food.
Person C: Person A didn't say anything about making food you fool.

Don't be person C.

I did explain that I understood the point the person I riffed off of was making. I also veered away from it because I thought it was a bad idea, with a kernel of a good concept that could be expanded on.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

No way, rid of brakes? Still needed when regen unavailable, cold weather, low battery, first few miles driving after a respite...

That's the key. In an RT there won't be any "regen unavailable" situations . . . because it won't let itself get into those.

(Also, since when does "low battery" not allow for regen?)

 

[TSLA Pilot]

That's wrong. Not all events are planned.

In an RT they will be--the car won't ever be at the top of a mountain with a full charge and unable to regen . . .

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Why would Tesla use a different style of brakes that is inferior? Emergency stopping will be required for a long time because most cars won't be automated and kids and animals will still run out in the street. Besides, a different type of brake will mean more parts and a new supply chain. Makes zero sense.

While this is the investment thread, you assume that regen will be insufficiently powerful to apply sufficient negative torque.

I don't believe that assumption is accurate.

I hope to find out on 8 August at the RT reveal.

 

[MP3Mike]

That's the key. In an RT there won't be any "regen unavailable" situations . . . because it won't let itself get into those.

How is it going to prevent motor failure? Or any number of other things...

 

[Krugerrand]

In an RT they will be--the car won't ever be at the top of a mountain with a full charge and unable to regen . . .

Well - that’s only if I decide not to own a RT.

 

[insaneoctane]

Good question, it feels like 12.x is more weighted to use map data and is tuned to be comfortable by anticipating turns. IOWs they've opted to train with these hints.

Not an AI expert by any means, but this behavior is strange, hard for me to explain, and makes me question the overall method. When I use the turn signals on FSD, it seems to take that command under advisement, starts to execute the request, but frequently changes it's mind after starting the lane change and ultimately ignores my command. This makes me question how much control Tesla has over the "black box" that is the NN....

 

[AudubonB]

…

Reality is that rusty discs grab better than smooth ones. Your brakes don't fail to work, they work better with rust on them.

Mmmmmm…..waaaal, ifn yer definition of “better” includes the resultant chipping all yer remaining teeth from their concomitant grinding against each other, then I suppose so .

And on a much more serious note: I don’t like to use and I don’t like to read a lot of references to “He/She/They/ is/ are lying.”

There has been a year or two worth of such since approximately Friday. What is for me particularly jarring is the apparent hypocritical collective attitude that it is anathema to conceive of Mr Musk/Tesla to be lying, but it is downright perfect to accuse Reuters of doing the same.

Before continuing, I will once again take the High Ground in the game of Who Can Excoriate News Media The Most. Those of you with long memories will recall my descriptions of an uncle who now many decades ago was one of the New York Times‘s Editors, and how that 7.2 quake felt throughout Vermont was his turning over in his grave after the great Tesla Roadtrip Debacle as written by Broder.

But.

Reuters likewise is not what it once was, yet I immediately can sympathize with their journalistic plight. As I see it, a story comes in; perhaps it is corroborated by more than one source - even if the two sources may be in cahoots - concerning something that puts Tesla in a bad light.

What does the responsible journalist or her editor do? Why, that’s simple; what every single reponsible journailst and publication always do: call up Tesla’s Public Relations office and….

It is not that this has happened once. Or twice. If Tesla has not learned the stupendously obvious, easy, and supremely cost-effective lesson yet, it is unhappily simple to guess why that is.

Summary: be very, very careful how you bandy about the term “lying.” If I have to write on this again, it likely will be in green.

You’re welcome.

 

[CitizenKane]

I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.

If you take away the driver, couldn't a taxi be quite roomy even if small? Couldn't aerodynamics also be less of a priority for a car that charges itself when needed? Not that I think that's where Tesla would go but if you took away the front seats from a typical London cab, you would have a lot of passenger space AND a quite small car.

 

[CitizenKane]

I’m also at an age and life situation, retired, where I’m sure I’d be advised to diversify, yet I’m all in on TSLA but for my house. Though I do sell shares at times to live off of and to buy the occasional Cybertruck .

However, my investment in Tesla isn’t just about me or mine.

Tesla isn’t out of the woods yet, as a judge in Delaware recently reminded us.

Tesla still needs right thinking individuals to hold their stock come hell or high water for as long as those individuals can and to vote those shares to support the mission.

No judgement from me, but the way I reason, any stock can go to zero for totally unexpected reasons and I have responsibilities for my family so "all in" would be reckless.

As for the mission that certainly was very important for me in the beginning since I care very much about climate change. Today the shift towards EVs is unstoppable, I think, while Tesla's and especially Musk's priorities are no longer as clear to me. Without again going into a discussion not allowed here, climate change doesn't seem to be top on Musk's list anymore. If I were to be a stockholder to support a company foremost, there are plenty of companies I would choose over Tesla.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think, while Tesla's and especially Musk's priorities are no longer as clear to me.

As far as Tesla is concerned, the priorities are Master Plan 3.

4680 cell production, Megapack, Semi, Optimus, Cybertruck, FSD, Robotaxi, Gen3 car - that is all part of MP3.

Even the Roadster is part of MP3.

Opening up supercharging, licencing FSD, all part of MP3.

Refining Lithium and the Cathode plant, all part of MP3.

IMO it all comes together in a very coherent plan that is greater than the sum of its parts.

What Musk does for other companies, can be part of a different mission with different priorities.

 

[Cult Member]

I don't see how a Robotaxi can be a compact car. I barely fit in a Model 3, and it's difficult for the old and out of shape to get into and out of. There is no way a robotaxi for all can be based on a compact model.

Think about a clever seat and door design that can give you the room you need.
I would love to see the first Neuralink user on stage who is steering his electric wheelchair and entering a Robotaxi that folds its seats out of the way. Two EM companies would have given him his individual mobility back.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Couldn’t resist buying at 169 and change at market open yesterday.

Go t$la

 

[replicant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777586441649828205

 

[Thekiwi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777586441649828205

Sub-optimal.

 

[Buckminster]

Zanegler Semi update Apr 6. His summary: New Semi build is large! Pace is slow, not as urgent as Texas seemed. Not worth watching.

Elon managing cash flow. Nvidia chips will hurt this year.

 

[replicant]

Elon managing cash flow. Nvidia chips will hurt this year.

Can Tesla afford to slow down production of the semi? How?

The semi was unveiled 7 years ago. Battery cells should be plenty with the slow down in EV sales.

I thought the semi would get FSD fast as drivers' pay represent about 44% of the average marginal cost for carriers. Also, having semi on the road is the best way to train NN for semi autonomous driving.

Is Tesla now too low on cash to grow? I can't wait for the company talks he promised after the 2023 Q4 10-K.

 

[Cobbler]

Tesla EV sales in China double to 62,398 in Mar

In the first quarter, Tesla sold 132,420 vehicles in China, contributing 34.23 percent of its global deliveries.

cnevpost.com

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) doubled its sales of electric vehicles (EVs) in China in March compared to February, with exports from its Shanghai plant down slightly.

The US EV maker sold 89,064 China-made vehicles in March, including 26,666 exported, according to data released today by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).

That means Tesla sold 62,398 vehicles in China in March, up 107.02 percent from 30,141 in February, though down 18.61 percent from 76,663 a year earlier.