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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Damn, it's really going vertical.
That aligns with others predictions.
Most were saying between 3600 and 4200 CTs delivered in Q1.
Even sillier is the people who think it is bad from a company/investment perspective that Tesla isn't selling a less expensive version (yet). I just don't understand people supposedly thinking from an investor perspective*, but complaining about Tesla only selling the marked-up Foundation Series and supposedly breaking the "promise"** made at the reveal. A company making extra profit per unit while they can is the opposite of a bad investment...
* On the other hand, I TOTALLY understand personal complaints from people who want to own the Cybertruck, but don't want to spend Foundation Series money. It is 100% fair to complain (within reason) that a situation is not to your liking.
**People talking about "promises" are also a pet peave for me...completely unprofessional for anybody masquerading as any level of a stock or investment analyst. It's a decision to use emotion-invoking but completely illogical wording. Kids promise each other things. Mommy might promise a cookie to a toddler if he behaves well. Companies and their executives don't "promise" anything months or years out. So, unless there is an actual contractual obligation, then nothing is guaranteed or "promised." And, even if there is a contract, "promise" still isn't the correct terminology -- just say it's a contractual obligation.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
They are already at a 50k+ annual run rate. By analyzing the slope last 2 weeks Jan to first 2 weeks Feb they were in the 200-300/wk range. Late Feb 500/week, now 1000+/wk. At this rate, they ought to break 2000/wk easily by June. They had capacity installed for 125k annually by in Q423. With this type of demand, they will almost certainly install more capacity to be available by 2025.
If 4680 cell production ramps as fast as vehicle production.
Krugerrand
Meow
All wonderful speculation, but I want to know if they’re making money on this vehicle yet at the current production level.
Whose mind blows if Tesla somehow managed to be profitable on CTs in their first quarter of production?
Musskiah
DisGruntled
That would be incredible. At these inflated prices, anything is possible.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
In Q124 call Karn Budhiraj reported, "To date, 4680 production is ahead of the [Cybertruck] ramp with actually weeks of finished cell inventory."
Joey T's take
Not sure if this video has been posted the first 15-20 minutes is worth watching.
Not new information, but well presented.
Not new information, but well presented.
When interest rates come down to what? The neutral rate now is probably mid 3% or even above 4%, Powell has already said he doesn’t expect rates to come back down to where they are pre-COVID and they were 2.25-2.5% at that time.
Fed Funds rate coming down also don’t mean the long end of the curve will come down, 5-10 year yields could still stay elevated for longer — the US has an insane amount of debt to sell.
There are currently no signs interest rates need to come down any time soon, expectations for rate cuts will likely walk up as we move through the year and it’s possible we get zero cuts this year.
Next year rate cuts could be offset by potential losses from the IRA tax credit requirements changing, between %s increasing and the exclusion of Chinese battery components.
Fed Funds rate coming down also don’t mean the long end of the curve will come down, 5-10 year yields could still stay elevated for longer — the US has an insane amount of debt to sell.
There are currently no signs interest rates need to come down any time soon, expectations for rate cuts will likely walk up as we move through the year and it’s possible we get zero cuts this year.
Next year rate cuts could be offset by potential losses from the IRA tax credit requirements changing, between %s increasing and the exclusion of Chinese battery components.
You need to watch the whole video for her answers to those questions.
After 20 minutes the video features a very technical deep dive on the state of the US economy.
80 minutes is a big commitment but will try to listen to the whole thing
I just know a certain group of people have been desperately hoping rates will come down for some time, we were supposed to have a recession and outright deflation like two years ago if I recall correctly. The hope of rate cuts need to be juxtaposed against arguments from those who think rates will stay high.
If it helps I can post a summary of what I understand...
- The US economy is in a rolling recession.
- Producers are losing pricing power. (e.g. price reductions already happening for housing)
- Other economies have cut interest rates, the Switzerland being the only example of a developed economy.
- Oil is the only thing likely to keep inflation higher.
- Some trends and sentiments similar to recession settings.
- Other currencies performing very badly against the US dollar.
- Recessionary undercurrent in the global economy
- Innovation/AI likely to drive productivity gains. (growth with deflation)
She presents lots of charts to back her point of view, it would be good to see a presentation from someone with a different opinion.
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I honestly feel this inflation was caused by the great Covid migration which finally had people realized their gains from their HCOL houses.
Tesla 4/1-4/7 delivery number in China, 1907,
Unbelievably low. If no good explanation exists, this is very very bad signal.
Thoughts?
From top
BYD 45216
Li 5626
Huawei Wenjie 4139
Lingpao 3247
Jike 3200
Nio 2139
Tsla 1907
XPEV 1230
xiaomi 1093
Zhijie 1011
Unbelievably low. If no good explanation exists, this is very very bad signal.
Thoughts?
From top
BYD 45216
Li 5626
Huawei Wenjie 4139
Lingpao 3247
Jike 3200
Nio 2139
Tsla 1907
XPEV 1230
xiaomi 1093
Zhijie 1011
Attachments
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We have been dealing with terrible 1 week of the quarter for the past I don't know, 20 quarters now...who knows..who cares. Why is this even being talked about?
Maybe China is in a war with Taiwan and forgot to tell the world and that war started first week of the quarter because the week before, the Chinese were picking up cars just fine. Next first week of the Q, I'll come up with something else that's equally ridiculous to explain the same 80% drop off.
Depends on the vehicle. With separate compartments, they would have a physical barrier and wouldn’t have to sit side by side. Pooling is more important during the peak hours and you could have several compartments in a van-type vehicle.
Yep, people are for sure going to want to ride in a prisoner transport cell.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
I wonder where all the Teslas went? SOOOOO weird. It's almost like they always send out the last week of the Q along with the first couple weeks production of a new Q overseas.
Tesla China opens Q2 2024 with massive export efforts
It appears that Tesla China is not missing a beat with its export efforts even as the second quarter of 2024 begins.
www.google.com
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