Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jamaatta]

80 minutes is a big commitment but will try to listen to the whole thing

I just know a certain group of people have been desperately hoping rates will come down for some time, we were supposed to have a recession and outright deflation like two years ago if I recall correctly. The hope of rate cuts need to be juxtaposed against arguments from those who think rates will stay high.

Euro rates should start coming down in about two months. US may be another story.

Falling loan demand builds rate cut pressure as ECB prepares to meet

Survey results will feed into ECB discussion on slowing activity amid tight financing conditions

www.ft.com

 

[Quesder]

Could you please translate the chart for us?

Thanks.

Edited in original post, but here we go again:

Tesla 4/1-4/7 delivery number in China, 1907,
Unbelievably low. If no good explanation exists, this is very very bad signal.
Thoughts?
From top
BYD 45216
Li 5626
Huawei Wenjie 4139
Lingpao 3247
Jike 3200
Nio 2139
Tsla 1907
XPEV 1230
xiaomi 1093
Zhijie 1011

 

[jamaatta]

Tesla 4/1-4/7 delivery number in China, 1907,
Unbelievably low. If no good explanation exists, this is very very bad signal.
Thoughts?
From top
BYD 45216
Li 5626
Huawei Wenjie 4139
Lingpao 3247
Jike 3200
Nio 2139
Tsla 1907
XPEV 1230
xiaomi 1093
Zhijie 1011

If I'm right, the car registration officesin China were closed from thursday (to sunday?). I saw a tweet from this, couldn't find it now. But heres an example in Beijing:

"From April 4 to 7: No License Plate-based Restriction on Vehicles in Beijing"

From April 4 to 7: No License Plate-based Restriction on Vehicles in Beijing

According to the notice on the adjustment to the traffic management measures for motor vehicles and non-resident passenger vehicles entering Beijing during the Qingming Festival holiday from April 4 to 7, motor vehicles in Beijing are not subject to license plate-based restriction, one of the...

english.beijing.gov.cn

 

[AndrewZ]

Euro rates should start coming down in about two months. US may be another story.

Falling loan demand builds rate cut pressure as ECB prepares to meet

Survey results will feed into ECB discussion on slowing activity amid tight financing conditions

www.ft.com

Canada will likely come down sooner and more drastically too, US is in a bit of a particularly unique situation with fiscal policy battling monetary policy and myriad other factors like 30 year mortgage rates and this and that

 

[dhanson865]

Gotta love $TSLAQ logic:

View attachment 1037047

If they knew what they were talking about they'd harp on the fact that EAP/FSD isn't working on the delivered vehicles.

That software issue makes them sound like prototypes, the delivery dates on actual hardware are a silly point to focus on.

 

[Linkmeup]

Tesla in talks with Reliance to set up EV manufacturing arm in India

Tesla Reliance News: Tesla, US electric vehicles major is in talks with RIL for joint venture to set up manufacturing hub for electric vehicles in India.

www.thehindubusinessline.com

Tesla and Reliance India talking for over a month now on preliminary stages for an EV manufacturing arm in India

 

[Linkmeup]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-court-upholds-epa-decision-approve-california-electric-vehicle-rules-2024-04-09/

"A U.S. appeals court on Tuesday upheld the Environmental Protection Agency's decision to grant California a waiver to set its own tailpipe emissions limits and electric-vehicle requirements. The three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia rejected a legal challenge from 17 Republican-led states and entities that sell or produce liquid fuels."

 

[Linkmeup]

Electric vehicle numbers could overtake petrol cars in Norway this year

With EV sales at 90 per cent of the new car market, the number of electric cars on Norway roads s likely to overtake petrol cars within the next 12 months.

thedriven.io

"If this trend continues, which it surely will given the EV share of the new car market, experts predict that the number of BEVs on Norway’s roads will exceed that of petrol vehicles by year’s end, or early in 2025 – the year in which Norway will officially end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars."

Norway could become first country to have more electric cars than petrol

Nine out of 10 new cars sold in January in Norway were pure electric

ca.news.yahoo.com

"The Nordic country of 5.5 million people aims to become the first nation to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars – by 2025. Nine out of 10 new cars sold at the start of this year have been BEVs."

 

[Baumisch]

The last 30+ pages have been interesting regarding 8/8 "robotaxi unveil" - but I don't think we need a physical car unveil tbh.

1. Consensus not only in here but in the broader investor community seems to be that Tesla is a safe bet to produce a bleeding-edge 25k car with industry leading scale/technology/efficiency/marging etc ... this alone is amazing, but I don't think a physical car is needed on 8/8 - the hardware is not the issue of doubt holding the stock back.

2. Software for robotaxi on the other side - there is even among the bulss in here no concensus if L4/L5 is ready until 2025, let alone robotaxi for the existing HW3 fleet - we need a software announcement i.e. launch of the robotaxi network for US customer fleet.

Here is what I wish what we need for our 10x in a year from 8/8:

10am open doors to tesla event campus, a few hundert positive selected people, all registered with latest tesla app version and account
12am Musk opens the event, Autopilot team does 1h of flashy presentation of the progress on all fronts, last slide is the tracking values for CriticalDissengagements or similar metric against average US and it's exponentially imrpoving
1pm Musk comes to this slide on stage again "and this is why we launch robotaxi in the US on existing HW3 fleet today" mic drop
1pm - 3pm Demo event - musk shows slides and then the app, 40 ModelX HW3 6-seat vehicles lined up, noone in driver seat, tesla employee on passenger seat - 4 seats in the back for participants. geo fenced to 500 meter around factory, everyone can book for 1 destination and back, no drop off of course, everyone stays in the car. minds are blown
4pm Real mind-blown happesn: Musk shows app again, asks how rides were, crowd cheers - then theres a blue car on his app visible approaching "finishing ride nearby. Musk klicks on car: "weird, no Tesla - but nice color ..." - Jim Farley exits the sliding doors of an Ford minivan EV, praises Tesla engineers working with ford for NACS and explains how this car uses Tesla MCU and HW4 for infotainment (with ford blue apps), navigation, safety assist, L3 and if the ford customer subscribes to FSD, can be added to the robotaxi fleet - minds blown
Musk does not do Q&A - thanks everyone and joins Jim Farley in the minivan to leave the stage.

Not saying this will happen, but that's what we need from a stockprice perspective - together with first robotaxi public zones going onling following with a "NACS FOMO" style of OEM announcements the following months to 10x the stock - no Optimus needed and for sure not a hardware presentation needed as well.

I hope I'm blown away on 8/8

 

[Quesder]

If I'm right, the car registration officesin China were closed from thursday (to sunday?). I saw a tweet from this, couldn't find it now. But heres an example in Beijing:

"From April 4 to 7: No License Plate-based Restriction on Vehicles in Beijing"

From April 4 to 7: No License Plate-based Restriction on Vehicles in Beijing

According to the notice on the adjustment to the traffic management measures for motor vehicles and non-resident passenger vehicles entering Beijing during the Qingming Festival holiday from April 4 to 7, motor vehicles in Beijing are not subject to license plate-based restriction, one of the...

english.beijing.gov.cn

That　doesn't explain why the other manufacturers are still doing ok, especially the top 3.

 

[WarpedOne]

why the other manufacturers are still doing ok

Are they really?
What does it mean "still doing ok"? All of them, some of them, most of them?
Still running lights, papers still not came in?

Big companies are slow. Also slow to die. And also hard to change the slow course. They have many sources to suck emergency capital from.
This works until suddenly it does not.... List of automobile manufacturers of China - Wikipedia

 

[Quesder]

Are they really?
What does it mean "still doing ok"? All of them, some of them, most of them?
Still running lights, papers still not came in?

Big companies are slow. Also slow to die. And also hard to change the slow course. They have many sources to suck emergency capital from.
This works until suddenly it does not.... List of automobile manufacturers of China - Wikipedia

Please.
None of these are big companies, all of them are new players in making EV. And they are delivering the similar number of cars comparing to the previous week.

Tesla sold roughly 80,000 cars in China in Q1, over 12 weeks time span. Averagely 6666 cars per week.
The week 4/1 - 4/7 Tesla only delivered 1907 cars, apparently it is not OK and something different happened.

 

[WarpedOne]

YOU said "especially the top 3."

And today is wednesday... "This week " means Monday and Tuesday ... 2 days.
Is this what you obsess about?

I don't have time for this BS.

 

[EVMeister]

Talk about missing the forest for the trees.

 

[GhostSkater]

Would you guys believe Toyota launches the all new 2024 4Runner with the hybrid version using a Ni-MH battery? IN 2024!!!!

And it's a 1.87 kWh, look at the size of that thing, could have fit maybe 5x to 10x with Li-ion, even with LFP would be a huge improvement

I will be surprised if it can do 1 mile on electricity since they leave huge buffers for the hybrid powertrain to always be available

And some people think Toyota dominate, or even be mildly successful with EVs

 

[cliff harris]

Well imagine yourself as a lithium-ion battery design, manufacturing and integration expert. You are hugely in demand, and your skillset earns top dollar. You can pick and choose which company to go work for.
What combination of illegal narcotics would have to be flowing through your body to then decide to go work at Toyota?
You KNOW senior management hate EVs, and batteries. Why would anyone competent take that job?
Toyota are a dying company. Hard to see from the outside, with continued ICE sales, but they are selling dumbphones in a smartphone era.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Depends on the vehicle. With separate compartments, they would have a physical barrier and wouldn’t have to sit side by side. Pooling is more important during the peak hours and you could have several compartments in a van-type vehicle.

Two different pricing models with differences between markets. Just like UBER. Urban would require aggressive pricing differences to keep congestion down (therefore may be tax based). Long distance commute in southern California has always seen good use of pooled Tesla use, so that is another use case.

 

[Buckminster]

The last 30+ pages have been interesting regarding 8/8 "robotaxi unveil" - but I don't think we need a physical car unveil tbh.

1. Consensus not only in here but in the broader investor community seems to be that Tesla is a safe bet to produce a bleeding-edge 25k car with industry leading scale/technology/efficiency/marging etc ... this alone is amazing, but I don't think a physical car is needed on 8/8 - the hardware is not the issue of doubt holding the stock back.

2. Software for robotaxi on the other side - there is even among the bulss in here no concensus if L4/L5 is ready until 2025, let alone robotaxi for the existing HW3 fleet - we need a software announcement i.e. launch of the robotaxi network for US customer fleet.

Here is what I wish what we need for our 10x in a year from 8/8:

10am open doors to tesla event campus, a few hundert positive selected people, all registered with latest tesla app version and account
12am Musk opens the event, Autopilot team does 1h of flashy presentation of the progress on all fronts, last slide is the tracking values for CriticalDissengagements or similar metric against average US and it's exponentially imrpoving
1pm Musk comes to this slide on stage again "and this is why we launch robotaxi in the US on existing HW3 fleet today" mic drop
1pm - 3pm Demo event - musk shows slides and then the app, 40 ModelX HW3 6-seat vehicles lined up, noone in driver seat, tesla employee on passenger seat - 4 seats in the back for participants. geo fenced to 500 meter around factory, everyone can book for 1 destination and back, no drop off of course, everyone stays in the car. minds are blown
4pm Real mind-blown happesn: Musk shows app again, asks how rides were, crowd cheers - then theres a blue car on his app visible approaching "finishing ride nearby. Musk klicks on car: "weird, no Tesla - but nice color ..." - Jim Farley exits the sliding doors of an Ford minivan EV, praises Tesla engineers working with ford for NACS and explains how this car uses Tesla MCU and HW4 for infotainment (with ford blue apps), navigation, safety assist, L3 and if the ford customer subscribes to FSD, can be added to the robotaxi fleet - minds blown
Musk does not do Q&A - thanks everyone and joins Jim Farley in the minivan to leave the stage.

Not saying this will happen, but that's what we need from a stockprice perspective - together with first robotaxi public zones going onling following with a "NACS FOMO" style of OEM announcements the following months to 10x the stock - no Optimus needed and for sure not a hardware presentation needed as well.

I hope I'm blown away on 8/8

New poll below capturing this as an option:
Poll: What will be the biggest 8/8 event headline?

 

[Buckminster]

New thread:
8/8 Robotaxi Event Discussion

I put the following links on the first post:
Poll: What will be the biggest 8/8 event headline?
Gigafactory locations and products Starting Austin for gen 3 but which model where?
Super Bull Future TSLA Valuations Robotaxi valuations
Tesla Network / Robotaxi Business Model
Tesla to license Autopilot / FSD
Tesla Network prerequisites
Tesla Home Wireless Charger Another possible reveal 8/8
Universal Basic Income (UBI) is coming
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot
Tesla Insurance Robotaxi monopoly?
Poll: Let's build the Redwood Compact Crossover
Project Redwood (Compact Crossover)
ARK Big Ideas discussion Decent Robotaxi valuation
Investor's Alien Dreadnought Thread Replaced by unboxed?
HW4 & HW5 Discussion Will gen 3 initially be HW4 or 5?
Poll: let's build the Robotaxi
Poll: Gen 3 exterior material

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Would you guys believe Toyota launches the all new 2024 4Runner with the hybrid version using a Ni-MH battery? IN 2024!!!!

And it's a 1.87 kWh, look at the size of that thing, could have fit maybe 5x to 10x with Li-ion, even with LFP would be a huge improvement

I will be surprised if it can do 1 mile on electricity since they leave huge buffers for the hybrid powertrain to always be available

And some people think Toyota dominate, or even be mildly successful with EVs

View attachment 1037218

Toyota fully owns a NiMH hybrid battery manufacturing plant. For an oversized vehicle like the 4Runner they probably don't care much about the weight.