Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Factually incorrect.

The average residential rate for PG&E customers is now $0.45!!! (citation though I don't need one since I live in SF Bay Area)

PG&E Electric Rates in 2024: How to Lower Your Essential Electricity Costs

PG&E electric rates are some of the highest in California and more than double the national average. Here's how to lower your electricity costs.

www.solar.com

But it's not just about the absolute cost, it's about the rapid change. Even if it's still cheaper to charge an EV in the Bay Area than buy gas, the point is it is much closer than it was just a few years ago.

A Timeline of PG&E’s Rate Increases – And How to Reduce Your Bill

PG&E rates have soared in recent years. Is there any escape? Luckily, there are ways for California homeowners to save on PG&E. Here’s how.

blog.citadelrs.com

The average rate has doubled in 4 years! What used to be a big selling point to push people on the fence to an EV is now basically gone in California.

And it's not coming back as utilities like PG&E are planning even more rate hikes.

View attachment 1037634

On a nicer note...

Wow, that's pretty short-sighted for PG&E to charge so much. Solar is a fairly fixed cost, so they are just encouraging solar. If it weren't for a struggling economy they could make it a buck it so we can all move on. (This reminds me of ICE prices - so high now that inventory is stagnant as people consider the alternatives).

Here's a question: Does the ave person even have a sense for their own electricity costs, and further compare this to gas? (Not the whole bill, but where/how the power was used). Based on my conversations with folks, there is little awareness. kWh? Blank face. Leave lights on - don't know the cost. How much to run the Hot-tub... no clue. A common question (after the where is answered) is how much to charge an EV. It's evidence that some are looking at their cash weekly outflows. It's all short-term thinking really as folks have not caught on to total cost of ownership just yet. That's where they could get burned (post-warranty) in either crazy depreciation and/or repairs.

I would expect very few consumers saying, "I always wanted an EV but now it will cost too much to charge, so never mind." This might be the case where education is low. It requires math (or fear spreading). Some here might think you're trying to propagate this point to slow the transition, just a hunch based on feedback.

So charging costs are a fair point, but I really don't think it will move the needle even if it were surrounded by rare earth magnets. Good info none the less, and thanks. Maybe Cal will eventually buy power from Az in exchange for water. I'm counting on it!

 

[Krugerrand]

How low can Rivian and Lucid go? Absolutely brutal value destruction

How is it they have brutal valuations given their business finances? They’ve both been headed to bankruptcy for a long time and are picking up speed.

While Tesla prepared themselves for tough times, these two went and spent money on new designer wardrobes.

 

[Krugerrand]

On a nicer note...

Wow, that's pretty short-sighted for PG&E to charge so much.

There’s history. This company was found responsible for recent devastating fires across the state because of not keeping on top of infrastructure. They need billions and billions now. Who do you think is getting the bill for their mismanagement?

 

[AndrewZ]

How is it they have brutal valuations given their business finances? They’ve both been headed to bankruptcy for a long time and are picking up speed.

While Tesla prepared themselves for tough times, these two went and spent money on new designer wardrobes.

That seems unfortunate for the energy transition goals, we need all automakers selling as many EVs as possible and succeeding as much as possible

 

[dhrivnak]

As with many people I was quite disappointed in the Q1 P&D numbers. So, it got me to thinking how could Tesla increase demand other than dropping prices. I am looking at low-cost options. As we have found dropping prices hurts margins, tarnishes Tesla’s “luxury” image and hurts us owners by depressing resale values. If this is best in a separate thread, I am good with that, but would like to get your thoughts on these ideas:

• Fast track battery production in the USA – The Model 3 lost the tax credit this year, effectively raising prices 15-20%. Since the battery pack is identical to the Model Y, do what is needed to gain the tax credit giving the customer a significant 15-20% price reduction with little impact to margins.
• Add Vehicle to Home capability – Like Ford and Kia vehicle to home (20A 120V outlets or even a 40A NEMA 14-50) plug would be a great improvement in functionality allowing one to power their refrigerator or even a mini-split heat pump in the case of a disaster or power outage. I hear the onboard charger may already have this capability. If not, it can likely be added for a modest cost.
• Consider a hatchback design for the Model 3 – I was disappointed that the much larger Model 3 was able to carry considerably less than my tiny Volt. A hatch back design as we see with the Model S is very handy and useful for carrying larger items.
• Give FSD for a year – For nearly $0 cost to Tesla give a full year FSD to all buyers. After a year people can then order or get a subscription after they had a plenty of time to see what the package really has to offer and learn to depend on its functionality.
• SuperCharge Destination Charging – Partner with the National Park Service and/or State Parks to install Tesla destination chargers. We saw this in Canada and it is a great way to subtly advertise Tesla, to a crowd that is likely open to an EV. It also helps to combat range anxiety by showing the public that charging is available even in remote park destinations.
• Give Sales People Demo Cars – The sales people I have met are nice and friendly, but have almost no practical knowledge of EVs. Allowing the sales people to take a car home would help to educate them. It would be a nice perk for sales people, ensuring quality applicants, and it would greatly increase the demo fleet that could be sold at a discount without discounting new cars. Maybe even extend this to mechanics as well.
• Proceed with the Model 2 – Even if it needs to be a $30K car, let Wall Street and the majority of the world know there is a smaller car coming. Much of the world is used to cars smaller than the Model 3. With only 5 models to choose from Tesla can definitely benefit from more models.
• Add an option for a tow hitch on the Model 3 – Many Model 3 owners carry bikes or an occasional trailer. Like with the similar Y offer a hitch for $1000 as costs are likely less than $500.

 

[Krugerrand]

That seems unfortunate for the energy transition goals, we need all automakers selling as many EVs as possible and succeeding as much as possible

I don’t know if it’s unfortunate or not. I’ll wait for hindsight on that to make the call.

People keep saying this, but the actions of people who own and run car companies seems to not align with what ‘we need’. But for one exception. And interestingly enough the one exception keeps getting hit upside the head, even by people who claim to be in support of it.

What ‘we need’ is for people to stop being so selfish, shortsighted, opinionated, dishonest, oblivious, two-faced, greedy, overly sensitive, and all the other stuffs. Since that’s not going to happen, what ‘we need’ might be something entirely different than you state.

 

[MP3Mike]

Fast track battery production in the USA – The Model 3 lost the tax credit this year, effectively raising prices 15-20%. Since the battery pack is identical to the Model Y, do what is needed to gain the tax credit giving the customer a significant 15-20% price reduction with little impact to margins.

The battery pack is not identical, that is why the Model 3 doesn't qualify for the tax credit. Tesla has asked Panasonic, and other battery suppliers, to make as many cells as possible as fast as possible, and they have dragged their feet. This is out of Tesla's control, they can't make Panasonic expand faster.

They have tried to mitigate this some by starting 4680 cell production in house, but it takes time... (Especially as you are not just duplicating what others have done, and are innovating the technology at the same time.

 

[Linkmeup]

@Discoduck Can you explain why India giga announcement signals a massive shift to autonomy?

This doesn't relate to autonomy...but might help: not only a top 3 polluter (USA and China leading the way...), but a top 5 economy by GDP (and growing).

Which countries are contributing the most to climate change?

Countries have a mammoth task ahead as they gather for the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.

www.cnn.com

 

[EVNow]

LOL. At this rate, by 8/8 everyone will say, "this is pretty cool tech demo that gets 1000 miles / critical disengagement, which is neat and all, but looks like years before it will get to 100,000 miles per critical disengagement. So won't buy the stock on some soon to happen robotaxi hype"

1000 miles per disengagement will be great. That would be like once a month for most people. The current rate is something like 1 in 20 miles in the city. It’s not going to improve 50x in 4 months, though.

 

[dhrivnak]

The battery pack is not identical, that is why the Model 3 doesn't qualify for the tax credit. Tesla has asked Panasonic, and other battery suppliers, to make as many cells as possible as fast as possible, and they have dragged their feet. This is out of Tesla's control, they can't make Panasonic expand faster.

They have tried to mitigate this some by starting 4680 cell production in house, but it takes time... (Especially as you are not just duplicating what others have done, and are innovating the technology at the same time.

Possibly, but do they use any US made cells for PowerWalls or MegaPacks? If so can they redesign so Model 3 is prioritized? If I recall the main Panasonic production is in Nevada and Tesla can prioritize space and equipment for Panasonic. While Tesla may be doing all that is possible they have not communicated that which I think is part of the issue.

 

[Linkmeup]

So, ~4000-5000 Cybertrucks per week is volume production. It wouldn't be surprising, to me, to have a great + very hot summer in TSLA and planet Earth in 2024 and/or 2025.

 

[EVMeister]

Model Y LR RWD (600 km / 373 mile WLTP range) now available to order in Europe. Not yet available in the UK, due to driving on the wrong side of the road.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778353650668105923

 

[Usain]

1000 miles per disengagement will be great. That would be like once a month for most people. The current rate is something like 1 in 20 miles in the city. It’s not going to improve 50x in 4 months, though.

Why not?

 

[MP3Mike]

Possibly, but do they use any US made cells for PowerWalls or MegaPacks?

I don't think they share those details, but they are a different form factor/formulation that Tesla doesn't use for automotive purposes.

If I recall the main Panasonic production is in Nevada and Tesla can prioritize space and equipment for Panasonic. While Tesla may be doing all that is possible they have not communicated that which I think is part of the issue.

So, you think Tesla is going to ask Panasonic to expand as fast as possible, but not give them the space necessary to do it? As far as equipment, I highly doubt Tesla provides any equipment to Panasonic for cell production.

 

[EVNow]

Why not?

Why not, what ?

 

[MartinAustin]

dropping prices hurts margins, tarnishes Tesla’s “luxury” image

HOLD IT RIGHT THERE!!! Tesla does not seek, need or want an "image" - they just want to sell cars & replace all the gas-guzzlers. And that includes all the cheap cars that are all that poor i.e. normal people can afford

 

[EVNow]

HOLD IT RIGHT THERE!!! Tesla does not seek, need or want an "image" - they just want to sell cars & replace all the gas-guzzlers. And that includes all the cheap cars that are all that poor i.e. normal people can afford

Yes - but currently the prices are such that an image is important. So, until they get the next “cheap” vehicle they need the image.

 

[SOULPEDL]

1000 miles per disengagement will be great. That would be like once a month for most people. The current rate is something like 1 in 20 miles in the city. It’s not going to improve 50x in 4 months, though.

I suspect Tesla will need to change it's definition, measurement method, or goal. I'm in belief that 1,000 is useful in theory but is flawed - humans all drive differently. I've seen some folks on YouTube hold out for some scary runs (yes for clicks too) but my version of a safe ULT is different from every single one of you, guaranteed!!!

In fact, since the V12 rollout, the numbers spiked (good) then declined quite a bit on 12.3.3 since @Discoducky posted this link. (I believe this is self reported data, but with some controls for fair confidence on the metric.) I would expect FSD Beta Testers are more skilled at evaluating risks and allow more leash on FSD. But why the improvement with wide release? IDK, maybe it's the Canadians.

Main Dashboard

www.teslafsdtracker.com

In order to get to 1,000 Critical DE, I believe Tesla will need to eliminate some critical moves and measure without human intervention. A small RT local driverless network helps get that data (and also helps the stock). Factor out the variable (humans) in the data, and stop trying to make everyone happy. I really do think this was part of the calculus to get rid of the controls (humans) completely. They won't get 1,000 with controls IMO.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

The CPI for bulk, UTILITY based electricity is increasing <<===
As a _single_ data point, although I expect there are numerous others

My local utility says my excess renewable generated electricity, _ZERO_ fuel costs is worth $0.0268/kwh (2.68 cents a kwh ! )
If I buy it back, multiply that by a factor of 4x (fuel + fees + misc fees + T&D + etc)

my costs, now and the forsee able future
6,600 miles charged at home, under $50, sunshine generated home power, local trips under 150 mile radius (Tampa Florida, US & back, CapeCanaveral Space Coast, 1 small supercharge) ,
(34,000 miles (supercharger trips, $3,200) (2,500 - 4,000 miles)

As the cheapest forms of electricity come online, Renewables, Wind, Solar, buffered by batteries, you may change your premise

In Scotland I am buying electricity at 7p/kw at night (mainly wind) and selling my excess solar at 15p during the day

I think you are an outlier. An 8 month wait for an electrician does not sound normal. Also, we know for sure that $3000 to install a charger is way outside of normal. For most, the cost is closer to $1000, including installation and the cost of the charger its

I pay $0.14 kWh with SDG&E for off peak with their EV plan. I have to pay an additional $15/month to be on the plan and my peak rate is over $0.80 kWh!

I’m always chasing after kids turning off lights during peak hours!

You need a power wall.

 

[nativewolf]

I think you are an outlier. An 8 month wait for an electrician does not sound normal. Also, we know for sure that $3000 to install a charger is way outside of normal. For most, the cost is closer to $1000, including installation and the cost of the charger itself.

DC market, panel upgrade. pay for an electrician here, if good..250k a year. It's the datacenters. Signing bonuses are $100k.