So what's the best explanation for the slowdown in Tesla's sales, when they keep lowering ASP and improving offering, while ICE sales don't drop as much/fast?
This scenario goes clearly against my bullish thesis and I'm unable to provide satisfying answers to the questions I get. I've ready the vast majority of posts in this thread but can't find a summary of the best arguments (by investors).
I know about the official reasons for the YoY issues – red sea conflict and arson attack – but the layoff we're hearing about seem far more structural than the "operational efficiency" program the management is telling us about.
I've said this before, but I think the slowdown is simply more competition (and a EV price war in China who also has a lot more nationalism preference (see Apple issues)). This had to happen when 5 years ago, there was only the Bolt competing. Now, look around, you see other EV brands all over the road now from: BMW, Ford, Audi, Lucid, Rivian, Porsche, Audi, Kia/Hyundai. I don't see much from GM though.
Every single other EV brand you see on the road used to be an additional Tesla sale.
Market share had to go down and for lux items, not everyone wants to buy something everyone else can afford or is like half of every car you see in CA. I think the Macan EV will sell well, even at those prices.
Another major factor is interest rates obviously. People are poor and don't spend $$ wisely. They have to finance their cars and higher interest rates naturally forces them to be able to afford less or buy used when used Tesla's (and all other EV brands) have taken a beating. This affects other EV makers too, but for folks who don't want a Tesla, they will still buy the other EV brand.
I think Musk turned off a few buyers. That was discussed here before, but we know folks who ordered a MY, but went with something else purely because of Musk. We also know someone else who is looking at Gravity and nothing Tesla just because of Musk too. Just a couple anecdotal cases, but other's here have posted that as well.
This is my view, but having a pure EV fleet when the US market simply doesn't want them (renters) also puts Tesla/Musk in a tough spot. Hybrid sales are still hot:
February was a strong month for new-vehicle sales, up nearly 10% from a year ago.
www.emergingtechbrew.com
As much as we all love EVs here, the US consumer (renters I feel mostly) doesn't want a pure EV yet and half the US (for political reasons) hate EVs and are climate change deniers so you lose half of the population already. We have family who will never buy an EV and thinks they are slow to charge and happy to drive their big gas SUV.
