Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Speedr117]

FSD is not solved

Slight modification to your statement:

The current version of FSD (current version in normal people's hands) is no solved.

Glad there's 12.4 coming in a week or two on almost completely new training data, with 12.5 and 12.6 in various forms of testing right behind it.

 

[dhrivnak]

I going to arm chair quarter back this one… I want them to run some SEXY ads and make the brand known and aspirational (maybe that’s hard bc of the low pricing). Still some terrific ads, particularly with this 0.99% deal, would go a long way.

I worry that just doing the financing… they can get to the end of the month and say, “well, they didn’t help”. This really needs a multi-faceted approach. I’ve seen this work, but a singular approach limits your audience.

I think it could be even simpler by just retaining the referral program. I bet owners have been Tesla’s best sales force so why not continue those token rewards. Another easy promotion is to let sales people take a Tesla home so they really know and understand the cars. It is sad that typically I know FAR more about the cars and charging than the sales teams.

 

[dhrivnak]

Never go full @TrendTrader007

or should we?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1789422751880552695

While 12.3.6 is good I still have yet to have a single trip without a needed intervention. It still requires full attention on the road and a hand on the wheel. So we are closing in on Level 3 which is still away from Level 5. Most interventions have been minor, avoiding a deep hole/sewer on a hard right turn in the neighborhood or getting a parking space. Both of which will be needed for Robo taxies.

 

[winfield100]

No, I based it on the fact that ~70 is 2% of 3,500 and that happens to line up with the right side of the Y axis.

Sorry you don't know how to read graphs my guy.

@DarkandStormy
1) not "yer guy"
2) glad to see you are mitigating your seemingly Tesla negativity
3) cheers
4)Edward Tufte: Books - The Visual Display of Quantitative Information "

THE VISUAL DISPLAY OF QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION​

5)portions of precis of above
"..... data graphics, 250 illustrations of the best (and a few of the worst) statistical graphics, with detailed analysis of how to display data for precise, effective, quick analysis. Design of the high-resolution displays, small multiples. Editing and improving graphics. The data-ink ratio. Time-series, relational graphics, data maps, multivariate designs. Detection of graphical deception: design variation vs. data variation. Sources of deception"
6) I would suggest you read it and evaluate prior to posting questionable easily misinterpreted graphs that do not present a concise point but are vague at best
6a) copies are available in used book stores
7) you have a nice wonderful pleasant Mothers Day with you mom

 

[replicant]

on almost completely new training data

Source?

 

[Ellec]

Do you genuinely believe that firing an entire department and tens of percent from others is good for morale? This isn't a question about bulls and bears, but common sense.

It's obviously not, but

• In 6 months it will be history
• The folks left will feel more valued as they have been rewarded by not being fired
• Meanwhile Tesla will be leaner and operating more efficiently without the dead weight
• If someone still there is feeling demoralised they can leave, there are hundreds waiting to take their place
• Elon is running half a trillion dollar business, can't keep people around in case they get there feel feels hurt.

 

[Stormy24]

Source?

Cameras on the car.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Whoa. Image of CyberCab??

Looks like pop-up doors and a seat facing left towards... an open shelf (i.e. not a steering wheel)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1789603353909186731

 

[winfield100]

It puzzles me why you're so confused and aggressive about this. Without going into the validity of the data, why would you outrightly assume the right axis' maximum value should be 100%. If you want to represent time-based evolution in the single digit percentage, there's no logical reason to scale the graph all the way to 100%, since you'd lose valuable resolution information for no reason.

look at the graph,
see msg 459,511

 

[CatB]

Do you genuinely believe that firing an entire department and tens of percent from others is good for morale? This isn't a question about bulls and bears, but common sense.

Agree it’s horrible for morale, bordering on unjust and inhumane.
But it’s a great Machiavellian technique to force a culture of superhuman performance.
If you are a great performer in a team that is not performing, your job is at risk, so you have to “right the team” to keep your job.
Great way (/s) to keep everyone fear-motivated to outperform and look at the profitability of your team from the most critical perspective.

(Since none of you know me, it is my personal opinion and experience that innovation happens more when people aren’t terrified and overworked. But I recognize that’s not how Elon gets stuff done or runs Tesla. I am just glad there are other places for Tesla alums to work and hope that those “Tesla battle scars” serve them well in the job market.)

 

[willow_hiller]

Whoa. Image of CyberCab??

Looks like pop-up doors and a seat facing left towards... an open shelf (i.e. not a steering wheel)

View attachment 1046389

https://twitter.com/x/status/1789603353909186731

Those are called scissor doors, for anyone unfamiliar. They offer many of the advantages of gull wings with regard to parking, but have fewer moving parts.

 

[alexxs88]

The major problem is the high cost of operating their network. Waymo requires scores of humans monitoring every ride and intervening when things go wrong. And things go wrong far too often to turn a profit.

Factually, unless you believe that Fsd 12.3.6 has a critical disengagement frequency lower than 1/ 17000 miles, then Tesla's costs will be similar.

If you're looking at the loss that Google's "other bets" is reporting, then we just don't know what comes from operational losses and what comes from r&d. Keeping in mind cash is of no importance to Google, my assumption is that they're spending whatever it's needed for the best results, so r&d will be a big chunk of that.

 

[Buckminster]

Cybercab pic is unofficial

 

[willow_hiller]

Ok sure just let the trolls take over the forum. Thats a great idea.

I think we need to work with the mods to self-police going down rabbit holes. We cannot expect the volunteer mods to do everything for us.

If you see someone has already refuted a troll, resist the temptation to slam dunk on them again in this thread. If you really need to reply again, take it to another thread. And if they try and bait you into replying, just dislike it and move on. Topics that frequently cause rabbit holes already have their own dedicated threads. Unless there is breaking news about it that effects long-term investment theses, start the conversation in that thread.

If it's egregious misinformation, the dislike button is acceptable. It shows others that the post is disreputable without cluttering the thread.

 

[alexxs88]

It's obviously not, but

• In 6 months it will be history
• The folks left will feel more valued as they have been rewarded by not being fired
• Meanwhile Tesla will be leaner and operating more efficiently without the dead weight
• If someone still there is feeling demoralised they can leave, there are hundreds waiting to take their place
• Elon is running half a trillion dollar business, can't keep people around in case they get there feel feels hurt.

I'm not disputing most of your points and I don't think the ones with which I don't agree actually matter to the point I was trying to make. Let me rephrase it.

If you're Elon and on the cusp of turning on a money printing machine on 8/8, your company has 25B in the bank, there's no logical reason to mess around with anything inconsequential by comparison. Saving 1B is peanuts in comparison to the touted financial impact of releasing FSD unsupervised on a sensor stack cheaper than an iphone.

At this point the bulls and the bears diverge. Bulls will say this is just Elon being Elon, he sees something wrong and acts on it. Sees an inefficiency, solves it, no matter the overarching theme. Some bears will say it's proof that 8/8 will be more nice slides and big words but with no short term timeline and just a rehash of "growth waves, AI is the future and we're focussing on that". I'm somewhere in the middle myself.

 

[scaesare]

Those are called scissor doors, for anyone unfamiliar. They offer many of the advantages of gull wings with regard to parking, but have fewer moving parts.

Or, as everyone actually calls them, Lambo doors.

 

[replicant]

Cybercab pic is unofficial

Where did it originate from?

 

[philw1776]

I think we need to work with the mods to self-police going down rabbit holes. We cannot expect the volunteer mods to do everything for us.

If you see someone has already refuted a troll, resist the temptation to slam dunk on them again in this thread. If you really need to reply again, take it to another thread. And if they try and bait you into replying, just dislike it and move on. Topics that frequently cause rabbit holes already have their own dedicated threads. Unless there is breaking news about it that effects long-term investment theses, start the conversation in that thread.

If it's egregious misinformation, the dislike button is acceptable. It shows others that the post is disreputable without cluttering the thread.

It is a Disagree button. I use it to Disagree.
I agree that piling on with posts after a perceived (eye of beholder) troll has been responded to clutters the forum.

 

[Stretch2727]

Where did it originate from?

From the pictures in Elon's biography.

Tesla Robotaxi concept shown in new Musk biography

A concept of Tesla's dedicated Robotaxi included in Walter Isaacson's Elon Musk biography suggests that the vehicle would be futuristic.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Speedr117]

Source?

Elon posted this a few days ago, when he referenced 12.5 and 12.6 as well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1788236700709175700