Doggydogworld
Active Member
They guided 75% growth this year. And since Q1 was flat y/y, Q2-Q4 must roughly double. Megapacks are long lead items, so they have good visibility.
I agree vehicle outlook is not so good.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I agree vehicle outlook is not so good.
I going to arm chair quarter back this one… I want them to run some SEXY ads and make the brand known and aspirational (maybe that’s hard bc of the low pricing). Still some terrific ads, particularly with this 0.99% deal, would go a long way.
I worry that just doing the financing… they can get to the end of the month and say, “well, they didn’t help”. This really needs a multi-faceted approach. I’ve seen this work, but a singular approach limits your audience.
I worry that just doing the financing… they can get to the end of the month and say, “well, they didn’t help”. This really needs a multi-faceted approach. I’ve seen this work, but a singular approach limits your audience.
No, it is clear! They would NOT. Even back when Chase Auto Finance experiments with Volvo ten year loans it was Volvo which paid the consequences. Commercial finance companies operate captives and offer subvened financing at times.
This industry is roughly a century old and has entrenched business practices, in most countries with consumer/ commercial finance. OEM’s and/or distributors and/or dealers all are part of the same practices, with Credit unions/sparkassen as major participants with marginally different business practices. Nobody in thus industry gives anything away without somebody paying the price. ‘Subvention’ is the word for these and they come in credit risk, interest rate, residual value, and captioned cost flavors, including consumers, fleets, government fleets and company cars all with slightly different features.
Some features are arcane enough that only the developers actually know the details. Think consumer finance leases as a prototypical example. There are several others here who have worked in this industry. Each type of participants see the picture from a different lens.
Finance companies acting as 'captives' or similar tend to see net profits from end user and dealer, distributor and or OEM sales arm. Dealers see it in terms of markups on all Finance nd insurance products, plus high sales price on finance leases. Consumers and commercial customers almost never can see the whole picture. Only the largest dealer groups actually know or care about the details. FWIW, most captives make much higher margins selling insurance and extended warranty products that they do from financing. Dealers typically make well over 100% of profits from F&I. Yes, that means some new car sales are nominally unprofitable, made up by F&I. FWIW, hat is why offering a cash purchase is unwise with a typical dealer since they make their money on F&I.
Uncle Sam has perfect credit and he is offering 4.5% for 5 years. The customers could all have 800 credit; no bank will give them a better deal than treasury rates
This is how I see it.
AI has come a crazy way since AlexNet in 2012. And the amount of dollars and hard work going into it now is so much more then back then. So it stands to reason that we will keep seeing lots of progress in the next 12 years. Software will solve so many problems we cannot solve today.
ChatGPT, V12 (s)FSD, Sora etc have validated Musks view that one way or another, Robotaxis/FSD will likely be a reality soon. Will current hardware do it? Probably. Will future hardware do it? Definitely. Once that happens any car company not making the right investments now will be in critical danger and the companies that did the investments will reap the rewards. It's just stupid to not invest into a future where FSD is a reality. It will require change in the entire stack, including charging hubs, steer by wire, inference hardware, training infrastructure, ride sharing software, mapping etc and ofc Robotaxi vehicles(8/8).
And AI robotics is almost ready. Push the software forward another 12 years and it will definitely be ready. And the companies that did the investment for a future where it is a reality will be reaping the benefits. It will be a crazy big market.
Musk is convinced of this and is making the decision that are correct if you are convinced of this. I am convinced of this and I think Elon is making the right decisions. Other companies are not making these investments as they are willing to do these investments. You decide how you think the world will look like in 10 years and do investments based on this.
@grok
In 2023, Tesla reported that about 90% of their vehicle buyers were new to the Tesla brand. This indicates a significant influx of first-time Tesla owners in that year.
GhostSkater
Member
Visited a Tesla store for the first time, quite busy, a few folks scheduling a test drive or purchasing with the help of employees
Also met my man Optimus, shame there was no S/X, really wanted to sit on one
Silver is the color
Also a lot of folks saying they would love to get one but due to what Elon said couldn’t /s
Also met my man Optimus, shame there was no S/X, really wanted to sit on one
Silver is the color
Also a lot of folks saying they would love to get one but due to what Elon said couldn’t /s
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Makes you wonder why they were in a Tesla store if they really feel that way.
Sounds like these are people who are really interested in a Tesla but think they can't afford one. So they make up another reason why they won't purchase.
You explain your position well. I don't think the issue is actually whether or not it can work. It will surely be longer than many want but will also surely work. I firmly don't believe it makes transport sustainable and I don't believe the profits will be there.
The roll-out will be gradual, the average car lasts 12 years. Rural areas will be uneconomical for ..well maybe forever. Work vehicles..not going to move anytime soon, etc etc. The average American drives a lot. The average house has a commuter and a bit more. The commuting traffic surge is hugely problematic for the robotaxi vision. It breaks it. There is no repair to that break. So you can either have lots of robotaxis doing nothing or not service the commute. If you don't service the commute than you really haven't changed car ownership and so users might as well continue driving because the marginal costs of driving are very low as long as you don't park in urban areas.
Current reasons for TaaS clients are : parking, entertainment, travel. That's almost exclusively what TaaS supports today. It is welcome, makes travel easier, makes having fun safer. It is not huge, a tiny tiny sliver of the transportation market less than 1/100 of 1% of global rides is an estimate.
If you want explore the pattern of a small American city. Take Seattle. 800k people commute in during 2 periods. Figure out the highway use the rest of the day. Understand why Uber services it with 5k drivers. I'm not saying one can't dramatically increase Ubers footprint by cutting cost by 75%. I'm saying if you cut all the costs out of Uber in Seattle (an unprofitable city) than..where is the profit for Tesla. What do 800k cars do in the day because news flash, there are only a fraction of those cars needed between 9am-4pm and almost none (a few thousands) from 7pm-6am. So is it profitable to deploy 400k vehicles to Seattle to service commuters knowing that 90% of the vehicles will have no other rides during the day? So you park 360k vehicles a day...where? You deadhead (ride empty) somewhere you can park them all over the outskirts of Seattle? Then drive back (causing more traffic jams). It actually doesn't model out. Build a traffic flow simulator and test it. I have a model on a spreadsheet and I can't make it work.
To boot the cities with the greatest Uber profits are likely to be expensive for RT or opposed to the automation of lower-middle class lifestyles. In CA electricity rates are soaring. and a small ICE is likely cheaper to run than an EV. NYC is not going to make it easy for RT fleets to deploy. I could go on but I think a gradual turn to RT (like Waymo offers) is more logical and profitable path. I believe Waymo guts the profit out of TaaS when they enter. They seem prepared to do so and unlike rocket launch and satellites I don't see that owning manufacturing greatly distinguishes Tesla from Waymo.
I took the /s in the original quote to mean it was a joke?
GhostSkater
Member
Obviously lol
Only bad thing that happened is that a guy was wanting to try that new Model 3 was looking mean at me because I was taking my time testing the new audio system
Musskiah
DisGruntled
How do you suppose Waymo scales quickly enough to even compete in every market? Waymo One is in THREE cities. Their vehicles are 3-4x the cost of Tesla to manufacturer. They don't mass produce robotaxis. They also haven't solved autonomy - far from it, even in geofenced areas they block traffic on highways and crash into things all the time.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
No, it is clear! They would NOT. Even back when Chase Auto Finance experiments with Volvo ten year loans it was Volvo which paid the consequences. Commercial finance companies operate captives and offer subvened financing at times.
This industry is roughly a century old and has entrenched business practices, in most countries with consumer/ commercial finance. OEM’s and/or distributors and/or dealers all are part of the same practices, with Credit unions/sparkassen as major participants with marginally different business practices. Nobody in thus industry gives anything away without somebody paying the price. ‘Subvention’ is the word for these and they come in credit risk, interest rate, residual value, and captioned cost flavors, including consumers, fleets, government fleets and company cars all with slightly different features.
Some features are arcane enough that only the developers actually know the details. Think consumer finance leases as a prototypical example.
They will be out in 10 cities by the end of next year and that is what they service with the 50k vehicles they bought from Geely. They are basically telling you exactly what they'll do. It's not a secret. They think 50k vehicles covers 10 cities more or less. That's about what Uber has working those cities. SO.....so....Waymo plans to take all the Uber rides. They can too. The cost of the vehicle is noise in the wind. Literally meaningless. Million miles on $50k or $25k vehicles ...it just doesn't matter. Google will make it all back on ads and more.
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