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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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If the bots are replacing the humans, who is buying the bots? You're displacing ~1bn humans a year in your scenario.
If you read my post again you will see that I'm not displacing 1bn humans a year. But that's beside the point.
The bots are purchased by all kinds of businesses and individuals.
For instance, I don't have a live in butler/maid right now. But if I could buy a bot for $20K to do that job, I'd snap one up in heartbeat.
Bots turn the economy on its head. You have to think different.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
The potential for humanoids is so new and different that I think its hard for most people to comprehend how much its going to change things. Not right away of course, but as humanoids get better and more capable they are going to change the entire world economy. Demand is going to be so high that anyone making a decent humanoid will sell them all most likely.
When Elon says there will be 1,000,000,000 bots sold per year worldwide he isn't talking about anytime soon, that level of production is still decades away, if we ever hit that high at all. Doesn't change the fact that humanoids will one day (relatively soon) be the highest volume production product in the world. More manufactured per year than phones, more than cars, more than anything else.
I laugh when I hear someone say specialized robots are better and humanoids are dumb. These people just aren't understanding what's about to happen.
Someday Optimus is going to dwarf everything else Tesla makes combined. Probably within a decades time I'd say, or sometime about there.
I'd say it wouldn't be much different because the fossil fuel industry and car dealerships depend on selling fossil fuels and ICE. After all, the atmospheric science has been known since the 1890s, so there has been plenty of time to reduce fossil fuel usage.How bad would the disinformation be for renewable and electric vehicles if Elon Musk wasn't getting involved and keeping quiet?
The "incumbents" in the auto + oil & gas sector have been killing the electric car for centuries through all sorts of means:
Ford, Edison and the Cheap EV That Almost Was
That Henry Ford and Thomas Edison were good friends late in their lives is well-known. They camped together, presented each other with lavish gifts, even owned homes adjacent to each other. Many Ford enthusiasts also know Ford, when he first drove his Quadricycle on the streets of Detroit in...www.wired.com
Now that climate change is ever present a century and half later, would the incumbents have let EVs and Renewable technology take over their business ecosystem easily even though its what's best for humanity? or would it have let humanity completely fall apart and find another (not maximized for saving lives) alternative that keeps their profits?
The irony here is extremely thick.
The future isn't for everyone.
To expand a bit on that, once machine labor is ubequiteous, anything branded "human-made" will have a cachet. Everyday items can be unique and hand made vs factory clones. I hope that human interaction will have a distinction from machine interface - that attending a live performance will be valued over recorded or even AI generated media. Not everyone will get with this program, but I see it as allowing human creative instinct to flower.
Ultimately, in this utopian world view, there will be less need for a large population in a finite environment.
Sorry, Elon. We need better people, not more.
What if...
After the tow truck hauls away the broken-down and unrepairable ICE or Hybrid vehicle for recycling, there would be an open garage space. In fact, everywhere there used to be cars, and growing in size due to the RT transition. Most of those garages would also have Wifi connections.
Think Distributed Compute together with Service. So just EV Charge in the empty garages, and pay the kids to clean it for $20 until they get their own Optimus - it's a family side hustle like an AirBnB for the RT fleet.
The homeowner, who's trying to subsidize their way through inflation, wouldn't need to do anything but initial hookup that could even be funded creatively along with a certification process. Use the distributed Wifi, Energy, Cleaning, Service, Storage, and Compute all together in one logical place. Certify the home as part of the Collective. Monitor quality through camera activity while being cleaned in addition to Rider Feedback.
That's a lot of bots! Why would you need so many when they are designed to be multifunction?
One machine to: wash the dishes, mow the lawn, make the beds, do the laundry, water the houseplants, clean the windows, cook the meal, sort the mail, fix that stuck door...and 18 hours left to the day?
Ya. 10 years and UBI won't even be a question. It will be the only way to hold civilization together.
The upheaval coming will make the BEV revolution look picayune.
At some point there will be enough robotaxis to stage them out in the suburbs for the morning commute, so this could have application there. In a neighborhood where everyone has a garage, charging your car at your neighbor's house would be unnecessary. It's probably still more efficient to create a central depot for fleet operations, where cosmetic and minor operating repairs can be carried out along side cleaning and charging operations.
I'm in San Francisco a lot, and I think about the value of reclaimed garage space for those properties that have them. Home office, additonal bedroom(s), even a walk-up business on the ground entry floor. It's hard to envision all the coming changes.
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Its hard to imagine that many bots per year being made only to do jobs which exist today, but humanoids will enable a lot more work which doesn't happen today. World GDP is limited by the labor force, technology amplifies the labor force but the number of people still limit things (both due to the number of people and the cost of said people). Now imagine a world GDP where there isn't any tangible limit? Or rather its limited by how much labor (humanoids) can be produced and put to work? And when humanoids can increase the production of MORE humanoids the ball really starts rolling into the stratosphere.
Model 3 LR now qualified for the $7,500 credit:
I wonder how they accomplished that? Did Panasonic start making more 2170 cells in GigaNevada? Did they switch to a different, credit compliant, cell manufacturer? Did they re-allocate packs from the Model Y to the Model 3 LR?
I wonder how they accomplished that? Did Panasonic start making more 2170 cells in GigaNevada? Did they switch to a different, credit compliant, cell manufacturer? Did they re-allocate packs from the Model Y to the Model 3 LR?
In 1980, IBM forecast that from 1981 to 1985, the worldwide demand for personal computers would be 241,000. The correct answer was 25 million.
The reason IBM was so far off is exactly the reason you cite about bots. They didn't consider that the PC was multi-function. Its utility was limited only by the human imagination.
That's just what we will see with humanoid robots.
And to answer your question, we will need so many because there are so many things we can dream up for the bots to do.
Thumbs up. All I can say is that watching the Internet revolution as it happened (I'm 68) you never would have convinced me that the bandwidth could be created to allow streaming video on demand. And I tend toward expecting that the future would be radically different from than the gradual daily changes we accept slowly morphing into "The Future".
A future of abundance and equity will only be possible if we find a way to unhook our animal predilection toward accumulation.
And there's an example of irony for ya!
The number of people with a spare $20k is extremely limited.
Ya lots of factors at play, different by region, and it's still super early. But still fun to predict.
On your comment I bolded above, the garage people wouldn't be charging at their neighbor's house, they wouldn't have a vehicle to charge to start with. I'm looking at the people who went down to zero ownership in any vehicle, and 90% of the infrastructure is already in place. (They got there waiting for an affordable EV then realized it was cheaper to just RT using coins from the couch.)
That hole in the garage, like electron flow, is gonna want to get filled I believe. But I could see where you'd need additional or modified infrastructure in regions without garage space.
But you will finance it and it will cut more from your budget than the payment. No more housekeeper, lawnboy, pool guy, nail salon, hair salon, laundry service, meal prep, etc.
Sure glad we got Barron's advising people that $TSLA wont top $200 until a 'more major' event:
Paywalled of course, must be a light FUD day due to $TSLA being up.
Paywalled of course, must be a light FUD day due to $TSLA being up.
Every middle-class household will have at least one.
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