Tesla v. Diesel in Europe, out of General.

[GJ79]

In my view, people who worry about Model 3's demand don't understand the true advantages of the car. The analyst downgraded TSLA today either don't understand it, or is trying to manipulate the stock, could be both.

Gasoline prices in EU countries are much higher than in U.S. Using the data gathered in April, EU price was generally around $6~$7 per gallon. China is 47% higher than in U.S., although China has one of the lowest price in the world. You can see how cheap gasoline is in the U.S.

While my Model 3 can save me $10k on gasoline in 10 years. People in other countries could save even more, depends on driving milage. A Model 3 as a Taxi/DiDi in China can save $15k on gasoline per year. That's $45k savings in 3 years. Tesloop already showed EVs do save a lot each year. Except Taxi/DiDi require a lot more cars than Tesloop.

Given this background, why would Tesla have trouble to sell 0.25 million EVs when the world total vehicle demand is 80 million? I don't think these bearish analysts realize the Model 3 is competing with gasoline/diesel vehicles. They still think EV is just a niche market. The demand for Tesla's cars will soon reach millions a year. I don't see any path for this to NOT happen.

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

But it is better than a Diesel, and cost effectiveness was reason that Diesel car was popular.
It was around 50% of the market in Europe, right?
No cheaper way to drive, after you pay for the car. And Europeans are big on running costs...

 

[Saber]

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

In Sweden se pay less than 10 cents/kWh and 7 dollars per gallon for gas.

 

[TradingInvest]

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

First, would like to see your data to show that in EU per mile cost is similar between a Model 3 and a diesel. I don't believe it for a second. But I could be wrong. Would appreciate it if you could show data.

Second, based on my readings, EU is in the process to make diesel car makers' life really hard. The health cost is way too high. You probably know those diesel car makers' CEOs are either in jail, or worried to be arrested next. There is a reason for that. They could try to spend many billions to make new generation diesel cars cleaner. But many nations now have a timeline to ban all ICE cars. Is it worth it to spend 6~8 years to engineer some truly great diesel cars, only to find out diesel has turned into a niche market? Also, EVs are becoming more and more competitive every year. My point is diesels can't compete with EVs today, and they won't even exist to compete in the future.

 

[Lessmog]

In my view, people who worry about Model 3's demand don't understand the true advantages of the car. The analyst downgraded TSLA today either don't understand it, or is trying to manipulate the stock, could be both.

Gasoline prices in EU countries are much higher than in U.S. Using the data gathered in April, EU price was generally around $6~$7 per gallon. China is 47% higher than in U.S., although China has one of the lowest price in the world. You can see how cheap gasoline is in the U.S.

While my Model 3 can save me $10k on gasoline in 10 years. People in other countries could save even more, depends on driving milage. A Model 3 as a Taxi/DiDi in China can save $15k on gasoline per year. That's $45k savings in 3 years. Tesloop already showed EVs do save a lot each year. Except Taxi/DiDi require a lot more cars than Tesloop.

Given this background, why would Tesla have trouble to sell 0.25 million EVs when the world total vehicle demand is 80 million? I don't think these bearish analysts realize the Model 3 is competing with gasoline/diesel vehicles. They still think EV is just a niche market. The demand for Tesla's cars will soon reach millions a year. I don't see any path for this to NOT happen.

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

In Sweden se pay less than 10 cents/kWh and 7 dollars per gallon for gas.

I was just going to reply but Saber beat me to it.
Meant to add that electricity prices vary greatly in Europe.

 

[electracity]

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

Sounds good for Tesla. EVs replacing the diesel mindset in northern Europe looks to become a thing.

German car companies needing to defend their turf by making good EVs is a wonderful thing.

 

[RobStark]

In Sweden se pay less than 10 cents/kWh and 7 dollars per gallon for gas.

So why isn't Sweden a 50% EV market share country yet?

PHEVs plus BEVs make up only 6% of new car sales in Sweden, while in California it is 5%.

California is ~17 cents/kWh while gas ~$3.50.

And Yes you can get electricity as cheap as 10 cents per kWh in some areas if you sign up for EV rates,shift time usage and pay more for peak time usage. And pay more in the Summer. And yes in rural CA you can buy gas for less than $3 per gallon right now. But above is about averages for average consumers.

 

[NicoV]

So why isn't Sweden a 50% EV market share country yet?

PHEVs plus BEVs make up only 6% of new car sales in Sweden, while in California it is 5%.

California is ~17 cents/kWh while gas ~$3.50.

And Yes you can get electricity as cheap as 10 cents per kWh in some areas if you sign up for EV rates,shift time usage and pay more for peak time usage. And pay more in the Summer. And yes in rural CA you can buy gas for less than $3 per gallon right now. But above is about averages for average consumers.

A couple of weeks ago I was chatting with the owner of the Champagne house we were visiting. He was very much interested in my Tesla and was interested in buying one for his wife (who has a long commute, he himself just works where he lives). Him main reason was that they were a 20 minutes drive away from the nearest gas station, but electricity was everywhere. Sometimes it’s not about the economics but about the convenience.

 

[Rohan]

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

This is nonsense. I'm on a particularly expensive (Ecotricity UK) electricity tariff and my 'fuel' costs are at least halved switching from a diesel to a model S. Of course the model S was twice the cost of my XF but the fuel costs are way lower.

 

[Lessmog]

This is nonsense. I'm on a particularly expensive (Ecotricity UK) electricity tariff and my 'fuel' costs are at least halved switching from a diesel to a model S. Of course the model S was twice the cost of my XF but the fuel costs are way lower.

As a single point, my last power bill was for 120 SEK, about 13USD, for one month in our wholly grid-powered house. Plus my Tesla. And that is a big part of the explanation, since I have the same power company as Tesla and they had a campaign "free miles for your Tesla" offsetting most of the normal tariff. That May. Including transfer fees and various additive taxes, my guess is I pay around 2 SEK per kWh. Gasoline 95 is just under 16 SEK per liter or 6.7 USD per gallon, at the unmanned pump down the hill.

 

[Johann Koeber]

First, would like to see your data to show that in EU per mile cost is similar between a Model 3 and a diesel. I don't believe it for a second. But I could be wrong. Would appreciate it if you could show data.

...

At least for Germany - here you go:

A Diesel consumes say 5 l of fuel for 100 km, @ 1.20 Euro per l: 6.00 Euro per 100 km

The MS requires 200 Wh per km, 20 kWh per 100 km @ 0.30 Euro per kWh (residential rate): 6.00 Euro per 100 km

Both figures include the various taxes on energy in Germany.

Electricity can be much cheaper if produced by your rooftop solar panels. My personal marginal cost of rooftop solar is 0.13 Euro per kWh.



But remember:

This is only the direct fuel costs. The advantages in performance, much lower other costs etc. are not compared here and would all come out in favor of electric.

Never mind performance: different ballpark.

 

[lklundin]

While my Model 3 can save me $10k on gasoline in 10 years.

[...]

Given this background, why would Tesla have trouble to sell 0.25 million EVs when the world total vehicle demand is 80 million? I don't think these bearish analysts realize the Model 3 is competing with gasoline/diesel vehicles. They still think EV is just a niche market. The demand for Tesla's cars will soon reach millions a year. I don't see any path for this to NOT happen.

Agreed - and to expand on that argument, for more and more home owners it becomes attractive to add solar panels to the roof, making a BEV even cheaper to use.

 

[mmd]

In my view, people who worry about Model 3's demand don't understand the true advantages of the car. The analyst downgraded TSLA today either don't understand it, or is trying to manipulate the stock, could be both.

Gasoline prices in EU countries are much higher than in U.S. Using the data gathered in April, EU price was generally around $6~$7 per gallon. China is 47% higher than in U.S., although China has one of the lowest price in the world. You can see how cheap gasoline is in the U.S.

While my Model 3 can save me $10k on gasoline in 10 years. People in other countries could save even more, depends on driving milage. A Model 3 as a Taxi/DiDi in China can save $15k on gasoline per year. That's $45k savings in 3 years. Tesloop already showed EVs do save a lot each year. Except Taxi/DiDi require a lot more cars than Tesloop.

Given this background, why would Tesla have trouble to sell 0.25 million EVs when the world total vehicle demand is 80 million? I don't think these bearish analysts realize the Model 3 is competing with gasoline/diesel vehicles. They still think EV is just a niche market. The demand for Tesla's cars will soon reach millions a year. I don't see any path for this to NOT happen.

IMHO, you are missing a few minor points:
- Not everyone can drop a charging cable from their 20th floor apartment.
- On the go charging or paid charging outside one's home is way too slow, and a lot more expensive than the lowest advertised nightly rates. Even that is 20c/KWh in San Diego, excluding taxes.
- That gasoline prices include a lot of surcharges for road maintenance that EVs are not paying yet.
- If you compare to similar size efficient hybrids, the fuel savings is a wash. See Ioniq hybrid at 58 mpg combined.
(Check out the trunk size and back seats while there.)
2018 Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid Vehicle Information | Hyundai USA
- Ultra fast charging (690 miles under 3 minutes for the Ioniq hybrid)
- A gas station at every corner
- Upfront cost: The ioniq hybrid costs 1/3 the LR Model 3, and has > 2 times the range (690 miles)
- And yeah, heat is free in winter. No major range loss. I'm sure if you do the math for severe cold weather, it will look way different than what you projected.

Why is anyone buying any other sedan other than Hyundai Ioniq hybrid is my question for you

 

[Lessmog]

At least for Germany - here you go:

A Diesel consumes say 5 l of fuel for 100 km, @ 1.20 Euro per l: 6.00 Euro per 100 km

The MS requires 200 Wh per km, 20 kWh per 100 km @ 0.30 Euro per kWh (residential rate): 6.00 Euro per km

Both figures include the various taxes on energy in Germany.

Electricity can be much cheaper if produced by your rooftop solar panels. My personal marginal cost of rooftop solar is 0.13 Euro per kWh.



But remember:

This is only the direct fuel costs. The advantages in performance, much lower other costs etc. are not compared here and would all come out in favor of electric.

Never mind performance: different ballpark.

Helpful, but I suspect you dropped a factor x100 somewhere ... ;-)

 

[lklundin]

Electricity prices in Europe are also a multiple of the cost of electricity in the US. When looking at the cost per mile based on fuel consumption a Tesla is not that much better than a Diesel (when considering european prices).

Let's say you need 6 l diesel to drive (an Audi A4 or BMW 320) 100 km, that's about 8 Euro here, or 8 eurocent / km

Let's say a Model 3 gets 6 km per kWh, which cost me 24 eurocent, i.e. 4 eurocent / km.

One can fiddle a bit with the numbers, but the Model 3 is clearly cheaper to drive, on the order of a factor 2.

PS. ICE's then has additional CO2 tax, oil changes and so on...
PPS. When I know my total electricity consumption, incl. my M3, the next project will be to dimension a solar panel installation, which will partially finance itself via savings on electricity for the M3. No options like that with ICE.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Helpful, but I suspect you dropped a factor x100 somewhere ... ;-)

thank you for catching this ... corrected

 

[TradingInvest]

At least for Germany - here you go:

A Diesel consumes say 5 l of fuel for 100 km, @ 1.20 Euro per l: 6.00 Euro per 100 km

The MS requires 200 Wh per km, 20 kWh per 100 km @ 0.30 Euro per kWh (residential rate): 6.00 Euro per 100 km

Both figures include the various taxes on energy in Germany.

Electricity can be much cheaper if produced by your rooftop solar panels. My personal marginal cost of rooftop solar is 0.13 Euro per kWh.



But remember:

This is only the direct fuel costs. The advantages in performance, much lower other costs etc. are not compared here and would all come out in favor of electric.

Never mind performance: different ballpark.

If I have to pay 0.30 Euro per kWh, I would switch to solar the next day (btw. I am switching to solar anyway, just not urgent). On average my Model 3 takes 218 Wh per mile, that's 136 Wh per km. Is this the number most Model 3s get? I drive 50% local, 50% highway.

 

[mrdoubleb]

At least for Germany - here you go:

A Diesel consumes say 5 l of fuel for 100 km, @ 1.20 Euro per l: 6.00 Euro per 100 km

The MS requires 200 Wh per km, 20 kWh per 100 km @ 0.30 Euro per kWh (residential rate): 6.00 Euro per km

Both figures include the various taxes on energy in Germany.

Electricity can be much cheaper if produced by your rooftop solar panels. My personal marginal cost of rooftop solar is 0.13 Euro per kWh.



But remember:

This is only the direct fuel costs. The advantages in performance, much lower other costs etc. are not compared here and would all come out in favor of electric.

Never mind performance: different ballpark.

No offense, but you make the classic error that many make when comparing ICE and EVs, or more precisely ICE and Tesla.
Sure, there are some diesel cars that consume only 5L per 100km. But are those in the same performance range as the Teslas you are comparing to? And are you using real life fuel consumption?
The most powerful BMW 7 series diesel is the 750d. That's 400 HP strong. Official combined consumption (mixed cycle) shows 6.2-6.4L. A quick google search shows an Auto Motor & Sport article with a test result of 9.6l. BTW the same article shows the Porsche Panamera 4s Diesel at 10L. I could google the an S-Class Mercedes or a diesel Audi A8 as well. Probably the same result.

The point is, let's use real data and let's compare comparably performing vehicles. The weakest Model S starts at 382 HP. A 382 HP diesel is not gonna give you 5L avg. under real conditions.

 

[Cobos]

Helpful, but I suspect you dropped a factor x100 somewhere ... ;-)

That’s still crazy numbers. In Oslo diesel is about 1.8 euro/ L and electricity is about 1 euro/ kW.

Cobos

 

[NicoV]

If I have to pay 0.30 Euro per kWh, I would switch to solar the next day (btw. I am switching to solar anyway, just not urgent). On average my Model 3 takes 218 Wh per mile, that's 136 Wh per km. Is this the number most Model 3s get? I drive 50% local, 50% highway.

In Belgium there are taxes on solar panels, resulting in giving back half of the production of your,solar panels to the government. It’s a tax that accounts for the use of the grid as a battery.