I hope this guy/company eats his words this year:
Tesla's biggest bear says stock will tank 70 percent in 2019
Tesla's biggest bear says stock will tank 70 percent in 2019
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Tesla's biggest bear says stock will tank 70 percent in 2019
- Thread starter P3D_Denver
- Start date
Erm. I haven't read this in detail, but isn't his thesis already going to have a fair possibility of being torn apart in a few weeks time when the Q4 delivery report comes around? Also, I wonder if this guy likes to sit by his PC in the bathroom whilst brushing his teeth.
These guys just talk *sugar* like it's gospel, lol. This dude has been forecasting a Tesla stock crash for months now and will probably continue to do so until he's either proven right or (more likely) looks like a total jerk. However the macro environment does look pretty dodgy, so I think some sort of slide is pretty likely, along with the rest of the market. But I think Tesla is looking as solid as it ever has done to date and there is much to look forward to in the near future.
I personally think demand for M3 is going to ramp up rather than down in the short to medium term. The argument that the backlog of pre-orders has cleared can be countered by more immediate availability and word of mouth spreading from early owners. Not to mention European sales ramping up over the next few quarters and a growing demand for EVs in general.
Since we bought our MX back in Feb, no less than 5 of our friends (not even close friends) have since bought one based entirely on seeing ours in the flesh. I've never seen that with any other car we've ever owned and I'm pretty sure the M3 will have a similar impact.
I personally think demand for M3 is going to ramp up rather than down in the short to medium term. The argument that the backlog of pre-orders has cleared can be countered by more immediate availability and word of mouth spreading from early owners. Not to mention European sales ramping up over the next few quarters and a growing demand for EVs in general.
Since we bought our MX back in Feb, no less than 5 of our friends (not even close friends) have since bought one based entirely on seeing ours in the flesh. I've never seen that with any other car we've ever owned and I'm pretty sure the M3 will have a similar impact.
Dynastar
Member
Frankly I'm surprised it's only 70%. He must not be a hard-core TSLAQ.
GBleck
Member
Yes and no. Until Tesla releases 2018Q4 we don't know the short-term financial position. Until it has worked its way through the backlog, raised production consistently over 5,000 per week and delivered the SR we won't know the long-term financial position.
So, there is a bear thesis still out there: Tesla is living on the backlog of demand for higher-spec versions of the Model 3, they will not be able to overcome their production challenges and deliver the SR, and their production failures will see them knocked out as the competition arrives in larger numbers in 2019+
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I'm not sure what margins the competition are expecting to achieve on their first gen EV competitors? Negative ones probably. Plus the volumes they are forecasting are relatively small, especially pre 2020. I don't see any significant direct Model 3 competition throughout 2019. To my mind the ICE mainstream industry is still focusing largely on petrol, diesel (at least in Europe) and PHEVs. Their marketing departments may be talking a big EV future, but it doesn't seem to be filtering down to their production forecasts. It didn't help that the VW chief got completely mixed up in his projected EV numbers, without even realising the mistake for about 4 days, lol!
