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Tesla's Energy Estimator - more conservative on the X?

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ChadS

Last tank of gas: March 2009
Jul 16, 2009
3,560
3,070
Redmond, WA
Hi,

I'm a long-time Tesla owner. I've taken many road trips in a Roadster, two different Model S, and a Model 3. I've also looked carefully at energy use on road trips for several years, and I'm pretty familiar with the factors that affect range. But we recently returned from a road trip in our X. While we've had the X for a year and a half, this was our first road trip in it, and I noticed something different with Tesla's energy estimator that has me curious.

With other cars on past road trips, my wife and I would typically charge until the energy estimator said we'd arrive at our next stop with 20%. Then we'd take off, and the estimated amount at our destination would immediately start dropping. Normally we'd arrive with something like 10-12%; every now and then it would be even lower and we'd slow down; sometimes in good conditions we'd actually arrive with 20%, but never more than the initial estimate. This was to be expected, because while Tesla's estimator took speed limits and elevation in to account, it seemed to assume we'd stick to the speed limit and only have good weather - neither of which was typically the case.

However, in this trip in the X, we had some very different results. We almost never arrived at a destination with less energy than Tesla's estimator suggested; the few times we did, it was only a couple of percent less. We usually arrived with more - in fact, some times a LOT more. A couple of times we left a charger with the estimator saying 15%, but we actually arrived with 30%, or one time even 42%! (I joked about just driving on to the next charger; surely we'd arrive there with a full battery). Our driving was pretty much the same as in other cars. The weather was pretty hot and dry, but we have taken several trips in those conditions in the past.

Are other people seeing this? Is this unique to the X, or is it the result of a firmware change that affects all Teslas, or...?
 
Our Aug 2018 X 100D calculates the same as yours. I’ve done multiple 1,000+ and one 2,800 mile trip and when we leave with it saying we’ll arrive with 15%, we usually arrive with something more like 22%-27%. I wasn’t sure if every Tesla behaved like this or if I was just a really efficient driver (I had installed the Stats app before I left on the 2,800 mile trip, and when I checked my driving efficiency vs all other Tesla’s, it showed my efficiency as better than 98% of all others FWIW).

So interesting to hear your experience re the other models.
 
Thank you for your observations.

I should have mentioned that we have a December 2017 Model X 100D. it has a different battery chemistry than any of the other Teslas we have had, so it is also possible that it likes the hot weather more than the other cars did.

This trip was 6,500 miles - not our longest by a long shot, but still long enough that we had a lot of chances to observe this. We probably averaged almost 80 mph, and temperatures were from '70s to over 100. I do think the biggest gains were on really hot days, but the temperature correlation wasn't perfect. Of course wind may not have corresponded to temperature...it is so hard to keep all the factors separate.
 
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Funny you started this thread as I noticed the same thing! 2016 Model X 90D, 20" wheels, ~7% battery degradation, 38,000 miles.

I just completed 2x 600 mile round trips from Chicago to Wisconsin (same start/stop) and I saw the exact same results. The trip estimator would guess that I would arrive around 15%, but it ended up being 30%. This happened both trips a few weeks apart. On one leg I left the Supercharger right when it said I could continue my trip. The computer quickly told me to keep my speeds below 65 mph to arrive around 8%. I decided that I would travel at 75mph and hit up another Supercharger that was a little out of my way, but I didn't want to drive that slow. Low and behold that message stayed on for a bit, but slowly went away. I ended up arriving back to my house with 24%.

I know that on my previous trips with the Model X it was usually very close within a few % points of the estimator and so I'm wondering if the new software updates have something going on. The thing that stinks is that my 300 mile trip (one way) required a 30+ minute supercharger stop as I had to get up to 80% SoC. I probably could have left around 70% SoC and made it with 10-15% and saved some time at the Supercharger.

Before this trip I did a 1,000 miles trip with my Model 3 and it was pretty spot on with estimates, charge times, %, etc.
 
Yeah, I agree that a conservative estimator is usually a good thing...unless you are already leaving a buffer and you end up charging way longer than you have to! Not only does it mean we wait longer, but it can contribute to Supercharger congestion. (Not that I experienced any on my trip).

I wish Tesla would TELL us how it works, so we don't have to guess. The more I know about how it works, the more accurate I can be with my charging...but then they'd have problems when they decide to change it.
 
My February 2018 75X works the same way on my 200 mile trips between NJ and Delaware. Yesterday I left Newark DE SC with a 20% estimate to NJ. There was significant rain a good part of the way and it went as low as 15%. When the weather cleared it gained and I arrived with 23%.

The gain in good weather is not unusual I frequently arrive with 25% or more on these trips